Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from a qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific medical situation over advice from people on the Internet.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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Omicron is not milder. "The B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has previously been reported as more transmissible, but less severe than other SARS-CoV-2 variants. To test this assumption, we linked state-level vaccination data with quality-controlled electronic health records from a large healthcare system, including 13 hospitals, in Massachusetts, USA. We then performed a weighted case-control study to compare risks of hospital admission and mortality across the SARS-CoV-2 waves in over 130,000 COVID patients. Although the unadjusted rates of hospital admission and mortality appeared to be higher in previous waves compared to the Omicron period, after adjusting for confounders including various demographics, Charlson comorbidity index scores, and vaccination status (and holding the healthcare utilization constant), we found that the risks of hospitalization and mortality were nearly identical between periods. Our analysis suggests that the intrinsic severity of the Omicron variant may be as severe as previous variants."
Source: https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1601788/v1
Commentary: this is good statistics at work. When you account for all the confounding variables, Omicron is as dangerous as other strains.
Which means that its variants likely are as well.
Stay masked, stay boosted.
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Long COVID appears in 57% of COVID-infected. "Findings: Among 11,162 papers initially screened, 196 studies were included, consisting of 120,970 participants (mean age: 52.3 years; 48.8% females) who were followed-up for a median of six months. The incidence of any long COVID symptomatology was 56.9% (95%CI: 52.2-61.6). General long COVID signs and symptoms were the most frequent (incidence of 31%), digestive issues the less frequent (7.7%). Higher percentage of females moderated the onset of any, neurological, general and cardiovascular long COVID symptomatology, whilst higher mean age was associated with higher incidence of psychiatric, respiratory, general, digestive and skin conditions. The incidence of long COVID symptomatology was different according to continent, age and follow-up length. Interpretation: Long COVID is a common condition in patients who have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, whether symptomatically or asymptomatically, and often regardless of the severity of the acute illness indicating the need for more cohort studies on this topic."
Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4099429
Commentary: Think on that for a second. Your chances of long COVID are greater than the flip of a coin. Not 1 in 100, not 1 in 10, but MORE than 1 in 2. Keep this thing out of your body if you can.
The last part is critical - long COVID does not seem to correlate with severity.
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Been saying this all along. "Given how little is known about the production and airborne be-havior of infectious respiratory droplets, it is difficult to define a safe distance for social distancing. Assuming SARS-CoV-2 virions are contained in submicron aerosols, as is the case for influenza virus, a good comparison is exhaled cigarette smoke, which also contains submicron particles and will likely follow comparable flows and dilution patterns. The distance from a smoker at which one smells cigarette smoke indicates the distance in those surroundings at which one could inhale infectious aerosols. In an enclosed room with asymptomatic individuals, infectious aerosol concentrations can increase over time. Overall, the probability of becoming infected indoors will depend on the total amount of SARS-CoV-2 inhaled. Ultimately, the amount of ventilation, number of people, how long one visits an indoor facility, and activities that affect airflow will all modulate viral transmission pathways and exposure (10). For these reasons, it is important to wear properly fitted masks indoors even when 6 feet apart."
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/epdf/10.1126/science.abc6197
Commentary: If you could smell someone smoking, you're inhaling air that was in their lungs, which means you'd be inhaling air containing virus particles. The safe distance you can be without a mask is the distance you'd be away from their cigarette smoke. Can you smell someone smoking when they're 6 feet / 2 meters away? You bet you can. That's not far enough to go without a mask.
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The latest crop of Omicron variants have enhanced immune escape. "The recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages BA.2.12.1, BA.2.13, BA.4 and BA.5 all contain L452 mutations and show potential higher transmissibility over BA.21. The new variants’ receptor binding and immune evasion capability require immediate investigation, especially on the role of L452 substitutions. Herein, coupled with structural comparisons, we show that BA.2 sublineages, including BA.2.12.1 and BA.2.13, exhibit increased ACE2-binding affinities compared to BA.1; while BA.4/BA.5 displays the weakest receptor-binding activity due to F486V and R493Q reversion. Importantly, compared to BA.2, BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/BA.5 exhibit stronger neutralization evasion against the plasma of 3-dose vaccinees and, most strikingly, of vaccinated BA.1 convalescents. To delineate the underlying evasion mechanism, we determined the escaping mutation profiles2, epitope distribution3 and Omicron sublineage neutralization efficacy of 1640 RBD-directed neutralizing antibodies (NAbs), including 614 isolated from BA.1 convalescents. Interestingly, post-vaccination BA.1 infection mainly recalls wildtype (WT) induced humoral memory and elicits antibodies that neutralize both WT and BA.1. These cross-reactive NAbs are significantly enriched on non-ACE2-competing epitopes; and surprisingly, the majority are undermined by R346 and L452 substitutions, namely R346K (BA.1.1), L452M (BA.2.13), L452Q (BA.2.12.1) and L452R (BA.4/BA.5), suggesting that R346K and L452 mutations appeared under the immune pressure induced by Omicron convalescents. Nevertheless, BA.1 infection can also induce new clones of BA.1-specific antibodies that potently neutralize BA.1 but do not respond to WT SARS-CoV-2 due to the high susceptibility to N501, N440, K417 and E484. However, these NAbs are largely escaped by BA.2 sublineages and BA.4/BA.5 due to D405N and F486V, exhibiting poor neutralization breadths. As for therapeutic NAbs, LY-CoV1404 (Bebtelovimab4) and COV2-2130 (Cilgavimab5) can still effectively neutralize BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/BA.5, while the S371F, D405N and R408S mutations carried by BA.2/BA.4/BA.5 sublineages would undermine most broad sarbecovirus NAbs. Together, our results indicate that Omicron can evolve mutations to specifically evade humoral immunity elicited by BA.1 infection. The continuous evolution of Omicron poses great challenges to SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity and suggests that BA.1-derived vaccine boosters may not be ideal for achieving broad-spectrum protection."
Source: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.04.30.489997v1
Commentary: Remember that vaccines stop the virus after it's in your body. Masks stop it before it gets into your body. You need both.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
3. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen, including boosters. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. If you received an adenovirus vaccine (J&J/AstraZeneca), consider getting an mRNA single shot booster (Pfizer/Moderna) if available. If it's available, choose Moderna as your first choice for both vaccine and booster, Pfizer as your second choice. However, remember than any vaccine is better than no vaccine.
4. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home.
5. Stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
6. Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemic gives another crazy plot twist to the economy, or you know, a global war breaks out.
7. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
8. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
9. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
10. If you think you may have been exposed to COVID-19, purchase a rapid antigen test. This will detect COVID-19 only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. https://amzn.to/3fLAoor
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19.
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.