Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
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Delta is twice as infectious as the original SARS-CoV-2. "This might help explain how many (on average) new people are infected by cases of various Viruses including COVID variants. R0 is the “basic reproduction” value. For smallpox in the 1970’s it was about 3.5-4.5. So the Delta variant is more transmissible than smallpox."
Source:
Commentary: What's most notable is that the virus is evolving not along lines of severity or even immune escape (yet) most, but on transmissibility most. That it has more than doubled its transmissibility in less than 18 months is quite stunning.
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Pfizer seeking EUA for a third dose. "Pfizer is about to seek U.S. authorization for a third dose of its COVID-19 vaccine, saying Thursday that another shot within 12 months could dramatically boost immunity and maybe help ward off the latest worrisome coronavirus mutant.
Research from multiple countries shows the Pfizer shot and other widely used COVID-19 vaccines offer strong protection against the highly contagious delta variant, which is spreading rapidly around the world and now accounts for most new U.S. infections.
Two doses of most vaccines are critical to develop high levels of virus-fighting antibodies against all versions of the coronavirus, not just the delta variant -- and most of the world still is desperate to get those initial protective doses as the pandemic continues to rage.
But antibodies naturally wane over time, so studies also are underway to tell if and when boosters might be needed.
On Thursday, Pfizer’s Dr. Mikael Dolsten told The Associated Press that early data from the company’s booster study suggests people’s antibody levels jump five- to 10-fold after a third dose, compared to their second dose months earlier.
In August, Pfizer plans to ask the Food and Drug Administration for emergency authorization of a third dose, he said."
Source: https://apnews.com/article/europe-coronavirus-pandemic-science-health-34c3f2536747a7c08980d7359a8de70c
Commentary: We know mix and match works and boosts immune responses. It would not surprise me in the least to find out that a third booster is sufficient to ward off Delta, and that we'll need boosters every 6-12 months until the majority of the planet is vaccinated. That said, the logical thing to do is vaccinate more people overall; given a choice between giving two people a third dose and one person their first and second doses, give it to the new person. The more people vaccinated, the safer everyone is.
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Delta's attack rate is very high. "The B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was identified in India in late 2020 and has subsequently been detected in approximately 60 countries (1). The B.1.617.2 variant has a potentially higher rate of transmission than other variants (2). During May 12–18, 2021, the Oklahoma State Department of Health (OSDH) Acute Disease Service (ADS) was notified by the OSDH Public Health Laboratory (PHL) of 21 SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 specimens temporally and geographically clustered in central Oklahoma. Public health surveillance data indicated that these cases were associated with a local gymnastics facility (facility A). OSDH ADS and local health department staff members reinterviewed persons with B.1.617.2 variant–positive laboratory results and conducted contact tracing. Forty-seven COVID-19 cases (age range = 5–58 years), including 21 laboratory-confirmed B.1.617.2 variant and 26 epidemiologically linked cases, were associated with this outbreak during April 15–May 3, 2021. Cases occurred among 10 of 16 gymnast cohorts* and three staff members; secondary cases occurred in seven (27%) of 26 households with outbreak-associated cases. The overall facility and household attack rates were 20% and 53%, respectively. Forty (85%) persons with outbreak-associated COVID-19 had never received any COVID-19 vaccine doses (unvaccinated); three (6%) had received 1 dose of Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech ≥14 days before a positive test result but had not received the second dose (partially vaccinated); four persons (9%) had received 2 doses of Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech or a single dose of Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) vaccine ≥14 days before a positive test result (fully vaccinated). These findings suggest that the B.1.617.2 variant is highly transmissible in indoor sports settings and within households. Multicomponent prevention strategies including vaccination remain important to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2, including among persons participating in indoor sports† and their contacts."
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7028e2.htm?s_cid=mm7028e2_w
Commentary: This is baffling; not the results, which are quite clear, but the advocating that schools re-open with in-person instruction.
Source: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/07/09/health/cdc-covid-schools-guidance-update/index.html
What these two conflicting stories represent is solid data that says indoor activities and gatherings are unsafe, and political and societal pressure to reopen an activity that is likely to be very unsafe. The reality is, Delta is highly transmissible, and schools should not be reopening for any students who are not vaccinated. Staff and students who are fully vaccinated absolutely can return to in-person instruction, though they may still want to wear masks for maximum safety. Unvaccinated children should not be gathering in schools, period.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around other people, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. If you received an adenovirus vaccine (J&J/AstraZeneca), consider gettings an mRNA single shot booster (Pfizer/Moderna).
3. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home.
4. Stay home as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
5. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
6. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
7. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
8. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19.
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.