Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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The US economy has lost 10% of its employed workforce in 3 weeks. "Jobless rolls continued to swell due to the coronavirus shutdown, with 6.6 million Americans filing first-time unemployment claims last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That brings the total claims over the past three weeks to more than 16 million. If you compare those claims to the 151 million people on payrolls in the last monthly employment report, that means the U.S. has lost 10% of the workforce in three weeks."
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/weekly-jobless-claims-report.html
Separately, the Federal Reserve Bank makes additional lending available. "The Main Street loans would be a minimum of $1 million and a maximum of either $25 million or an amount that “when added to the Eligible Borrower’s existing outstanding and committed but undrawn debt, does not exceed four times the Eligible Borrower’s 2019 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization,” whatever is less, the Fed said."
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/federal-reserve-unveils-details-of-its-much-anticipated-main-street-lending-program.html
These solutions still don't address the root of the problems facing the American financial system. More lending, even with no interest, borrows against businesses' future revenues, and while that's fine for larger companies, smaller companies like your favorite sandwich shop won't be able to repay it because of inelasticity of demand.
When we do open back up, that sandwich shop will not suddenly have 6, 12, or 18 months of sandwich orders. The way these government programs are structured, they presume that a business would have a demand backlog and that the revenue from fulfilling that backlog would pay back the loan. That's not how many service businesses work. If you miss the opportunity to fulfill a demand, that demand doesn't come back. You're not going to order 180 cups of Starbucks the first day you're back in the office.
The complete lack of understanding about how a service economy works will doom these efforts and thousands of businesses around the United States.
Continue to petition your elected representatives for substantially increased direct aid to households; Canada is sending $2,000 per month to households until the crisis abates, and that money will help people buy food, make rent, etc.
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The New York variant of SARS-CoV-2 likely came from Europe. "New research indicates that the coronavirus began to circulate in the New York area by mid-February, weeks before the first confirmed case, and that it was brought to the region mainly by travelers from Europe, not Asia. “The majority is clearly European,” said Harm van Bakel, a geneticist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, who co-wrote a study awaiting peer review. A separate team at N.Y.U. Grossman School of Medicine came to strikingly similar conclusions, despite studying a different group of cases. Both teams analyzed genomes from coronaviruses taken from New Yorkers starting in mid-March."
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/us/coronavirus-live-updates.html
This is why we name viruses the way we do. As inelegant as SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 are, they are leagues better than "The China Virus" or "The Italy Virus". Viruses ignore borders.
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Something's up with COVID-19 in the United States, according to a new pre-print on Medrxiv from Stanford. "Individuals with age <65 account for 5%-9% of all COVID-19 deaths in the 8 European epicenters, and approach 30% in three US hotbed locations. People <65 years old had 34- to 73-fold lower risk than those ≥65 years old in the European countries and 13- to 15-fold lower risk in New York City, Louisiana and Michigan."
Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1.full.pdf
Dr. Scott Gottlieb suggests it may be the result of poverty:
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The Governor of Michigan authorizes electronic signatures and remote notarizations. "Electronic signatures and remote notarizations are acceptable during the COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer ordered Wednesday evening. The governor’s latest executive order, which took effect immediately and continues through May 6, allows any notarial act required under Michigan law to be done using two-way video technology. A financial institution or register of deeds cannot refuse to record a copy of an electronic record if a notary certifies it under the order. Electronic signatures will be accepted for most transactions through the duration of the order unless state law specifically requires a physical signature."
Source: https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/remote-notarizations-allowed-during-coronavirus-pandemic-michigan-gov-gretchen-whitmer-rules.html
This is smart. Petition your elected representatives to authorize the same. The more we can drag bureaucratic processes into the digital world, the better we can keep businesses operating. And hey, these habits might even stick around after the pandemic.
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Marginal activities that involve people crowding in rooms probably won't be realistic until a vaccine is available, said Dr. Scott Gottlieb on CNBC.
For those people who work in things like concerts, live events, conferences, etc. - expect your industries to be severely curtailed until a vaccine is available, 12-24 months from now, and plan accordingly.
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Why are healthcare providers so impacted by COVID-19? Dose sensitivity may be the reason. The higher your dose exposure, the more severe your illness. "Despite the evidence for the importance of viral dose, many of the epidemiological models being used to inform policy during this pandemic ignore it. This is a mistake. People should take particular care against high-dose exposures, which are most likely to occur in close in-person interactions — such as coffee meetings, crowded bars and quiet time in a room with Grandma — and from touching our faces after getting substantial amounts of virus on our hands. In-person interactions are more dangerous in enclosed spaces and at short distances, with dose escalating with exposure time. For transient interactions that violate the rule of maintaining six feet between you and others, such as paying a cashier at the grocery store, keep them brief — aim for “within six feet, only six seconds.” Because dose matters, medical personnel face an extreme risk, since they deal with the sickest, highest-viral-load patients. We must prioritize protective gear for them."
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/coronavirus-viral-dose.html
In other words, think of COVID-19 like radiation: you want to minimize your overall exposure. If you pass by someone casually, even if you contract it, the dose will be low. If you work in an ER, your dose will be high.
Think of your body's immune system like a person in a rowboat with a leak. A small leak means you can bail the water out and maybe even successfully plug the leak. A shotgun blast to the bottom of the boat means you sink, no matter how good you are at bailing water. That's the viral dose.
Stay home.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands often, and every time you are in or out of your home for any reason. Consider also spraying the bottoms of your shoes with a general disinfectant (alcohol/bleach/peroxide) when you return home.
2. Wear gloves and appropriate protective equipment if you have it when out of your home in any enclosed airspace (stores, etc.).
3. Stay home. Just stay home.
4. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
5. Donate any PPE you can. https://getusppe.org/give/