Lunchtime Pandemic Reading, 8-December-2021
Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from a qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific medical situation over advice from people on the Internet.
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Okay, here's the deal on Omicron.
Mask up with N95/FFP2 or better.
Get boosted with Moderna or Pfizer.
Avoid large gatherings.
Test often.
This thing can infect the double vaccinated. It spreads FAST. It is taking off like a rocket ship. More below.
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Omicron requires masks and a booster. "Neutralization of Omicron versus Delta is done: 2x Biontech, 2x Moderna, 1xAZ / 1x Biontech after 6 months 0% neutralization with Omicron, also 3x Biontech 3 months after booster only 25% NT versus 95% with Delta. Up to 37 times the reduction in Delta vs. Omicron"
"We observed that Omicron infected the ACE2-expressing cells in a concentration dependent manner but did not infect the parental H1299 cells, indicating that ACE2 is required for Omicron entry (Fig. 1A). We then tested the ability of plasma from BNT162b2 vaccinated study participants to neutralize Omicron versus ancestral D614G virus in a live virus neutralization assay. We tested 14 plasma samples from 12 participants (Table S1), with 6 having no previous record of SARS-CoV-2 infection nor detectable nucleocapsid antibodies indicative of previous infection. For two of these participants, we used samples from two timepoints. The remaining 6 participants had a record of previous infection in the first SARS-CoV-2 infection wave in South Africa where infection was with ancestral D614G virus (Table S1). Geometric mean titer (GMT) FRNT50 (inverse of the plasma dilution required for 50% reduction in infection foci number) was 1321 for D614G. These samples therefore had very strong neutralization of D614G virus, consistent with sampling soon after vaccination. GMT FRNT50 for the same samples was 32 for Omicron, a 41-fold decline (Fig 1B). However, the escape was incomplete, with 5 of the participants, all previously infected, showing relatively high neutralization titers with Omicron."
Source:
Source: https://www.ahri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-267417v1-Sigal.pdf
Commentary: A 41-fold reduction in neutralizing antibodies doesn't necessarily translate into the same amount of lost immunity, but it is SIGNIFICANT. It's significant enough that you WILL need an mRNA booster to essentially bring more front-line troops in your immune system to the battle to fight off Omicron, and even then you can still get it - but the chances are extremely good that it will be mild illness.
Omicron shows good fitness for spreading. Vaccinated people can spread it. So if you have someone in your home at risk, you need to cut back any activities to the bare practical minimum until those people can be boosted or vaccinated, and be sure to wear appropriate precautions.
Stop eating in restaurants. Go back to takeout to support your local eateries. Stop going to concerts and events.
Holiday gatherings - make sure you've got some rapid tests on hand. Will they catch every contagious case? No. Will they detect 95%+ of them? YES. Test the morning of a family gathering (in a warm room!) for everyone to make sure they're safe.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
3. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. If you received an adenovirus vaccine (J&J/AstraZeneca), consider getting an mRNA single shot booster (Pfizer/Moderna) if permitted.
4. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home.
5. Stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
6. Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemic gives another crazy plot twist to the economy.
7. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
8. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
9. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
10. If you think you may have been exposed to COVID-19, purchase a rapid antigen test. This will detect COVID-19 only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. https://amzn.to/3fLAoor
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19.
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.