Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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I'm eager this Sunday to get Moderna #2. After that and a 14 day waiting period, I will be fully vaccinated, after which... not much will change. I'm still avoiding gatherings, still wearing the best mask available to me (mainly because my respirator is really comfortable), still getting takeout instead of dining in.
Why? Two reasons. First, my 11-year old is not vaccinated, and so at a household level, we are still at risk.
Second, as shown in yesterday's data, the mRNA vaccines have a 87% effectiveness rate against B.1.1.7 and a 72% effectiveness against B.1.351, two variants of concern widely circulating where I live. The vaccines are 100% effective against severe illness or death, but I'd prefer no illness at all, so I'll continue to observe precautions. About the only behavioral change I'll note is going for a run outdoors without a mask once fully vaccinated (including the two week waiting period).
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The WHO approves Chinese-made Sinopharm vaccine for emergency usage. "A World Health Organization panel announced Friday that it would authorize emergency use of a coronavirus vaccine made by Chinese firm Sinopharm.
The step means that the vaccine, developed by Sinopharm with the Beijing Institute of Biological Products, can be used to bolster WHO-backed efforts such as the Covax initiative to share doses equitably around the world.
“This expands the list of Covid-19 vaccines that Covax can buy, and gives countries confidence to expedite their own regulatory approval, and to import and administer a vaccine,” WHO director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a news briefing on Friday.
Though the Sinopharm vaccine is already in widespread use around the world with an estimated 65 million doses administered, its developers have released only limited information about the vaccine’s efficiency and side effects.
A separate WHO advisory group announced this week that it was “very confident” the Sinopharm vaccine protects people ages 18 to 59, citing evidence from clinical trials in China, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
However, the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts said it had a “low level of confidence” of the vaccine’s efficacy in people over 60 years old and a “very low confidence” in the data about potential side effects in that age group."
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/07/who-sinopharm-emergency-use/
Commentary: The Sinopharm vaccine is different from all other COVID-19 vaccines in that it uses dead SARS-CoV-2 viruses to stimulate an immune response, rather than a benign virus (J&J, AstraZeneca) or components of the virus (Pfizer, Moderna). What's critical about it is it's cheap, temperature stable, and something that can be made for lower income nations.
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Sinopharm efficacy around 78%.
Source: https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/immunization/sage/2021/april/2_sage29apr2021_critical-evidence_sinopharm.pdf
Commentary: In the advisory group analysis, they presented that they were uncertain of some of the data because of low or absent quality of evidence data, particularly for people older than 60 and people with comorbidities.
Given this data, if I had a choice of vaccine or no vaccine, I'd take the vaccine. If I had a choice between Sinopharm and other vaccines, I'd take an mRNA vaccine such as Pfizer or Moderna. They currently have the overall highest efficacy rates, especially against new variants.
But the moral of the story is any authorized vaccine > no vaccine. Period.
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Yes, you should still be taking precautions. "“There are a TON of COVID pundits who are trying to add a psychology degree to their armchair epidemiology and risk communication credentials. It's not "irrational" to be cautious, particularly when the pandemic is not over. Although it's great that cases are going down in the US and immunization is going up, the 7-day average for new cases nationally is still higher than it was this time last year to the tune of 20,000 cases. And we've seen state governors of both parties reopen prematurely only to get hit with surges in cases. Making educated personal risk-benefit calculations is both scientific and highly rational, and we are not making it any easier for ourselves or our communities by shaming people who might be reluctant to take their political leaders' word for it that policies are aligning with the most current and reliable evidence."
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/judystone/2021/05/07/wearing-a-mask-for-covid-19-protection-is-scientific-and-perfectly-normal/?sh=610d6cb06c1a
Commentary: The reality is that the pandemic isn't over. It's not even close to over, globally. It's not time to throw away your masks and go lick doorknobs. What do I feel safe doing? Hanging out in person with other fully vaccinated people without precautions, in private spaces - like family gatherings, etc. I don't feel comfortable hanging out anywhere there are unvaccinated people just yet.
Don't let anyone shame you about being cautious. You've gotten this far in this pandemic by paying attention to and believing in science and real expertise. Doing so will continue to serve you well.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Always wear the best mask available to you when out of your home and you'll be around other people, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen.
3. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason.
4. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters, preferably more. Avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
5. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
6. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
7. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
8. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.