Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from a qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific medical situation over advice from people on the Internet.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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The US COVID roadmap has been released. "Covid has been raging for 2 years. Multiple variants have emerged. Worldwide, hundreds of millions of people have been infected, millions have died, and untold numbers have developed long Covid. Covid has disproportionately affected communities of color, those living in poverty, and those in less developed countries. Covid has disrupted education and led to significant learning loss. And, there has been tremendous economic dislocation, millions of people thrust into poverty, and the loss of tens of trillions of dollars from the world economy. Importantly, effective vaccines and therapeutics have helped make progress combatting the virus, but cases and deaths still remain high.
As the pandemic enters its third year, two factors have become critical. One is fatigue. People are tired of restrictions used to fight Covid. Simultaneously, the virus continues to surprise experts and make it challenging to anticipate what lies ahead. In all cases, the world must be better prepared.
In 2022, it is possible for a new variant of concern to emerge. But greater population immunity increases the probability of a lower disease burden, lower strain on the 1. health system, and fewer deaths, if waning immunity or immune evasion do not become significant factors.
The United States’ pandemic phase—with restrictive public health measures—can end when average daily deaths due to Covid and other major respiratory illnesses decline below 0.5 per 1 million Americans, or 165 deaths a day at a national level. At that point, the United States can transition into the next normal, although individual regions may be able to make earlier transitions, depending on local Covid metrics.
But on March 1, 2022, the nation is not yet at the next normal. The shift to the next normal should not induce 2. complacency, inaction, or premature triumphalism. To rapidly reach and sustain the next normal, the country must implement a comprehensive and coordinated roadmap to both address this pandemic and develop the capacity to confront future biosecurity threats."
Source: https://www.covidroadmap.org/roadmap
Commentary: The entire document is worth reading in detail. The 12 key points outlined are:
1. Pivot to focus on respiratory illness in general.
2. Better reporting.
3. Better testing and surveillance.
4. Indoor air quality.
5. Vaccines and therapeutics.
6. Global investment.
7. Long COVID.
8. Equity and access.
9. Workforce protections.
10. Biosecurity.
11. Communications.
12. Schools and childcare.
Of the 12 policy recommendations, many of them apply to us as individuals. For example, on point 1, wearing masks protects you from all major respiratory pathogens, not just COVID-19. There's no reason to stop wearing a mask in situations where wearing one isn't a hardship, such as at the mall.
We all could improve indoor air quality in our homes and workplaces, from better ventilation with outside air to better air filtering, as well as continuing to wear high-quality masks.
We all should continue to keep our vaccinations up to date.
We all should have at least a small supply of rapid-antigen COVID tests handy, to ensure we're not contagious. We have not run into a variant yet that evades detection by rapid tests.
Many professions are well suited to hybrid workplaces, where we work from home at least part of the time. Doing so in a hybrid model restores the convenience and detail of in person communications, while also allowing for more worker flexibility.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
3. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen, including boosters. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. If you received an adenovirus vaccine (J&J/AstraZeneca), consider getting an mRNA single shot booster (Pfizer/Moderna) if available. If it's available, choose Moderna as your first choice for both vaccine and booster, Pfizer as your second choice. However, remember than any vaccine is better than no vaccine.
4. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home.
5. Stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
6. Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemic gives another crazy plot twist to the economy, or you know, a global war breaks out.
7. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
8. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
9. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
10. If you think you may have been exposed to COVID-19, purchase a rapid antigen test. This will detect COVID-19 only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. https://amzn.to/3fLAoor
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19.
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.