Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from a qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific medical situation over advice from people on the Internet.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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The healthcare system is struggling worldwide. "In this surge, COVID-19 hospitalizations rose slowly at first, from about 40,000 nationally in early November to 65,000 on Christmas. But with the super-transmissible Delta variant joined by the even-more-transmissible Omicron, the hospitalization count has shot up to 110,000 in the two weeks since then. “The volume of people presenting to our emergency rooms is unlike anything I’ve ever seen before,” Kit Delgado, an emergency physician in Pennsylvania, told me. Health-care workers in 11 different states echoed what he said: Already, this surge is pushing their hospitals to the edge. And this is just the beginning. Hospitalizations always lag behind cases by about two weeks, so we’re only starting to see the effects of daily case counts that have tripled in the past 14 days (and are almost certainly underestimates). By the end of the month, according to the CDC’s forecasts, COVID will be sending at least 24,700 and up to 53,700 Americans to the hospital every single day.
Omicron is so contagious that it is still flooding hospitals with sick people. And America’s continued inability to control the coronavirus has deflated its health-care system, which can no longer offer the same number of patients the same level of care. Health-care workers have quit their jobs in droves; of those who have stayed, many now can’t work, because they have Omicron breakthrough infections. “In the last two years, I’ve never known as many colleagues who have COVID as I do now,” Amanda Bettencourt, the president-elect of the American Association of Critical-Care Nurses, told me. “The staffing crisis is the worst it has been through the pandemic.” This is why any comparisons between past and present hospitalization numbers are misleading: January 2021’s numbers would crush January 2022’s system because the workforce has been so diminished. Some institutions are now being overwhelmed by a fraction of their earlier patient loads. “I hope no one you know or love gets COVID or needs an emergency room right now, because there’s no room,” Janelle Thomas, an ICU nurse in Maryland, told me.
Here, then, is the most important difference about this surge: It comes on the back of all the prior ones. COVID’s burden is additive. It isn’t reflected just in the number of occupied hospital beds, but also in the faltering resolve and thinning ranks of the people who attend those beds. “This just feels like one wave too many,” Ranney said. The health-care system will continue to pay these costs long after COVID hospitalizations fall. Health-care workers will know, but most other people will be oblivious—until they need medical care and can’t get it.
These numbers reflect the wild spread of COVID right now. The youngest patients are not necessarily being hospitalized for the disease—Sathya said that most of the kids he sees come to the hospital for other problems—but many of them are: Combs told me that 94 percent of her patients are hospitalized for respiratory symptoms. Among adults, the picture is even clearer: Every nurse and doctor I asked said that the majority of their COVID patients were admitted because of COVID, not simply with COVID. Many have classic advanced symptoms, such as pneumonia and blood clots. Others, including some vaccinated people, are there because milder COVID symptoms exacerbated their chronic health conditions to a dangerous degree. “We have a lot of chronically ill people in the U.S., and it’s like all of those people are now coming into the hospital at the same time,” said Vineet Arora, a hospitalist in Illinois. “Some of it is for COVID, and some is with COVID, but it’s all COVID. At the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter.” (COVID patients also need to be isolated, which increases the burden on hospitals regardless of the severity of patients’ symptoms.)"
Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/01/omicron-mild-hospital-strain-health-care-workers/621193/
Commentary: The shortage of healthcare workers - already bad before the pandemic - is in serious crisis now in the USA. There's no easy answer, either - simply paying people more for a miserable job that feels pointless and inflicts serious mental trauma isn't the answer. It's the same as we see in retail - paying someone $3 more an hour doesn't make up for abusive customers and terrible working conditions.
There's no easy solution. Yes, compensation helps - in the absence of other incentives, it's at least an available lever to pull. But what companies may need to start doing, at least in America, is providing more security forces to deal with unruly customers and patients so that regular workers don't have to.
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Vaccination may prevent Long COVID too. "Background: Long COVID is a post-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection syndrome characterised by not recovering for several weeks or months following the acute episode. The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against long-term symptoms of COVID19 is not well understood. We determined whether vaccination was associated with reporting long-term symptoms post-SARS-CoV-2 infection by comparing, among individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, those who were vaccinated to those who were not, in terms of self-reported long-term symptoms. Methods: We invited individuals who were PCR tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection at participating hospitals between March 2020-June 2021 to fill an online questionnaire that included baseline demographics, details of their acute episode and information about symptoms they were currently experiencing. Using binomial regression, we compared vaccinated individuals with those unvaccinated in terms of self-reported symptoms post-acute infection. Results: Of 951 previously infected individuals who filled the survey 637(67%) were vaccinated. The most commonly reported symptoms were; fatigue (22%), headache (20%), weakness (13%), and persistent muscle pain (10%). After adjusting for follow-up time and baseline symptoms, fully vaccinated (2 or more doses) individuals were less likely than unvaccinated individuals to report any of these symptoms by 64%, 54%, 57%, and 68% respectively, (Risk ratios 0.36, 0.46, 0.43, 0.32, p<0.04 in the listed sequence). Conclusions: Vaccination with at least two doses of COVID-19 vaccine was associated with a substantial decrease in reporting the most common post-acute COVID19 symptoms. Our results suggest that, in addition to reducing the risk of acute illness, COVID-19 vaccination may have a protective effect against long COVID."
Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.05.22268800v1
Commentary: Another reason to get vaccinated, as if there weren't enough already.
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No. "While most people have spent the last two years desperately trying to avoid COVID-19, some are now apparently contemplating doing the opposite. Their perverse logic mirrors that behind chickenpox parties, at which parents would purposely expose their kids to the virus to get the infection “out of the way” and kickstart immunity.
But as Kiss said on TikTok, “It wasn’t a good idea then, and it’s not now.”
But actively trying to get infected isn’t wise for anyone, experts say. It’s an unnecessary gamble for fully vaccinated people, and for those who aren’t vaccinated, it’s like playing “Russian roulette with an automatic handgun,” says Dr. Laolu Fayanju, regional medical director for Oak Street Health in Ohio.
There are several problems with this approach, says Akiko Iwasaki, an immunobiologist at the Yale University School of Medicine who studies viral immunity. First, there’s no way to predict how serious a case of COVID-19 will be. Second, vaccines and boosters already provide strong protection. And third, every infection can set off a domino effect, affecting other people in potentially devastating ways.
“The risk-to-benefit calculation here is very clear to me,” Iwasaki says. “The risk is so much higher than whatever benefit you might reap.”
These benefits are silver linings for people who accidentally get sick, but Iwasaki says it’s unnecessary to seek out infection for an immune bump; you can get similar benefits from vaccines and a booster, which are proven to be safe and effective. Plus, natural immunity wanes over time, and there’s no guarantee that getting Omicron will protect you from the next unknown variant that could be around the corner. “We know that the booster induces quite robust antibodies, even against Omicron,” Iwasaki says. “Why not get your immunity that way?”"
Source: https://time.com/6133419/should-i-try-to-get-omicron/
Commentary: Don't go out and try to catch COVID. Just get your vaccines and boosters and sensibly protect yourself. That's the best, most sound, most scientifically proven strategy.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
3. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen, including boosters. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. If you received an adenovirus vaccine (J&J/AstraZeneca), consider getting an mRNA single shot booster (Pfizer/Moderna) if available. If it's available, choose Moderna as your first choice for both vaccine and booster, Pfizer as your second choice. However, remember than any vaccine is better than no vaccine.
4. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home.
5. Stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
6. Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemic gives another crazy plot twist to the economy.
7. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
8. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
9. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
10. If you think you may have been exposed to COVID-19, purchase a rapid antigen test. This will detect COVID-19 only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. https://amzn.to/3fLAoor
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19.
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.