Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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Don't drink hand sanitizer. "From May 1 through June 30, 2020, 15 cases of methanol poisoning were reported in Arizona and New Mexico, associated with swallowing alcohol-based hand sanitizers. Four patients died, and three were discharged with visual impairment.
Alcohol-based hand sanitizer products should never be ingested. In patients with compatible signs and symptoms or after having swallowed hand sanitizer, prompt evaluation for methanol poisoning is required. Health departments in all states should coordinate with poison centers to identify cases of methanol poisoning."
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932e1.htm
Commentary: For context, there are three major kinds of alcohols you'll find generally available.
- Ethanol, which is drinking alcohol, the kind you find in everything from beer to Everclear
- Methanol, which is wood alcohol, is a byproduct of wood pulp processing and is highly toxic
- Isopropanol, which is rubbing alcohol, and is also highly toxic
Many forms of ethanol, due to regulations, are sold as denatured ethanol, which means they are intentionally tainted with 2-5% methanol to make them undrinkable but still usable in places like scientific laboratories.
Here's the trick: a lot of ethanol being used in hand sanitizers, especially if it's super cheap, may not be pure ethanol. It may be denatured ethanol, but it also might not be labeled as such because it's not intended for drinking.
Thus, the lesson should be obvious and clear: only drink alcohol that is intended for drinking. Hand sanitizer is not intended for drinking.
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Even Asymptomatic People Carry the Coronavirus in High Amounts. "Of all the coronavirus’s qualities, perhaps the most surprising has been that seemingly healthy people can spread it to others. This trait has made the virus difficult to contain, and continues to challenge efforts to identify and isolate infected people.
Most of the evidence for asymptomatic spread has been based on observation (a person without symptoms nevertheless sickened others) or elimination (people became ill but could not be connected to anyone with symptoms).
A new study in South Korea, published Thursday in JAMA Internal Medicine, offers more definitive proof that people without symptoms carry just as much virus in their nose, throat and lungs as those with symptoms, and for almost as long.
“It’s important data, that’s for sure,” said Benjamin Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong who was not involved in the work. “And it does confirm what we’ve suspected for a long time — that asymptomatic cases can transmit infection.”"
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission.html
Commentary: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands. And treat every single person you interact with outside of your home as though they ARE infected.
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Covid-19 seems to have changed lifestyles for good. "Google search traffic for cooking, exercise and crafts remains above normal levels."
Source: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/08/08/covid-19-seems-to-have-changed-lifestyles-for-good
Commentary: The marketer in me wonders how this will change business; the consumer and citizen is glad to see that at least some people are still conducting themselves appropriately. The situation now is no different than it was in March. The virus is still just as virulent, just as deadly, just as dangerous - actually, slightly more so since its major mutation in Europe, because it likely spreads more easily. If all habits went back to normal, we'd be in much worse shape.
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Should the general public wear eye protection? "The general public likely would not benefit substantially from eye protection for everyday, low-risk activities. Eye protection, usually glasses, goggles or a clear plastic face shield, is a standard part of personal protective equipment (PPE) for health care workers caring for patients with COVID-19. A recent review article in the Lancet found that wearing eye protection could reduce by up to 66% the risk of coronavirus (SARS, MERS or COVID-19) transmission to health care workers caring for infected patients. For health care workers or others engaged in activities that require contact with people likely to be infected, eye protection may reduce transmission."
Source: https://preventepidemics.org/covid19/science/weekly-science-review/july-25-31-2020/
Commentary: My take remains the same. A mask is mandatory. Eyewear protection I put on for going into indoor spaces like the grocery store - I leave it at home if I'm going to be solely outdoors. There's no cost to me to wear it indoors (besides looking like a lost paintball player), no downside, and potential upside.
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Worse before better. "There are ominous signs on the testing front. Though the number of tests have been greatly expanded — from under 30,000 tests per day in the spring to now over 700,000 tests per day — the spread of the coronavirus has outpaced these efforts. The overall percentage of tests coming back positive has increased from a low of less than 5 percent in early June to close to more than 8 percent in recent weeks. This means the number of infections has grown more quickly than the number of tests, and states would have to increase testing to catch up.
Unfortunately, it may not be possible to increase the number of tests that states need, due to the high demand for testing as well as shortages in testing supplies that were never fully addressed. Meanwhile, states are reporting delays in getting back test results. In some cases, it exceeds a week. Getting results back this late, possibly after someone is no longer contagious, makes it near impossible to use targeted public health tools like isolating cases and contact tracing to interrupt the spread of the virus. Without functional use of such targeted interventions, states are left only with shutdowns as a tool to combat the spread of disease.
If these trends continue, the nation is in store for a difficult fall. COVID-19 cases will continue to climb at alarming rates. Deaths and hospitalizations may lag, because it takes time for an infected person to become severely ill and/or die. Right now, the virus is being spread primarily by young, healthy people, which may now be causing fewer deaths. But young people tend to have large numbers of contacts, which can accelerate the spread of COVID-19. The virus will then move into into more vulnerable populations, such as the elderly, which are most likely to be hospitalized and die."
Source: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/06/opinion/bad-spread-coronavirus-is-there-is-reason-believe-it-will-get-worse/
Commentary: We are already in for a difficult fall in the United States. Continue observing all precautions and operating with vigilance. The virus doesn't rest, doesn't take a break, doesn't care about us or our opinions. We can't rest in our precautions either.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason. Consider also spraying the bottoms of your shoes with a general disinfectant (alcohol/bleach/peroxide) when you return home. Remember that cleaners are never to be ingested or injected.
2. Wear a mask when out of your home and if going to a high risk area, wear goggles. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too.
3. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters. Avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
4. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
5. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.