Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
--
Stat News has a review of three models of the future of COVID-19. "In one future, a monster wave hit in early 2020 (the current outbreak of millions of cases and a projected hundreds of thousands of deaths globally by August 1). It is followed by alternating mini-waves of much smaller outbreaks every few months with only a few (but never zero) cases in between. In the second scenario, the current monster wave is followed later this year by one twice as fierce and even longer-lasting, as the outbreak rebounds after a summer when a significant drop in the number of cases and deaths led officials and individuals to let down their guard, relax physical distancing more than was safe, and fail to heed (or even detect) the early warning signs that a new outbreak was gathering force. After this doubly disastrous second wave, the sea is almost calm, marred only by an occasional wave of cases that number barely one-fifth of what the fall and spring of 2020 saw. In the third possible future, the current wave creates a new normal, with Covid-19 outbreaks of nearly equal size and, in most cases, duration through the end of 2022. At that point, the best-case scenario is that an effective vaccine has arrived; if not, then the world experiences Covid-19 until at least half of the population has been infected, with or without becoming ill. What all three scenarios agree on is this: There is virtually no chance Covid-19 will end when the world bids good riddance to a calamitous 2020. The reason is the same as why the disease has taken such a toll its first time through: No one had immunity to the new coronavirus."
Source: https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/01/three-potential-futures-for-covid-19/
The last part is the most important. There is no chance that COVID-19 ends before 2020 does. That has implications on everything we're doing. No conferences in person. No large gatherings. Continued restrictions on daily life in some fashion. And if governments behave poorly, opening up restrictions too soon, the second scenario with the massive second hit seems fairly likely, just like the 1918 flu pandemic.
--
New research from Edison Research shows the financial strain of the pandemic. "One piece of data that jumps out in the latest Marketplace-Edison Research Poll is a measure of just how precarious many people’s finances are. We asked people how difficult it would be for them to pay an unexpected expense of $1,000. Almost 60% of those polled said they would have a hard time swinging it. But this time we added another part to the question: what about an unexpected expense of $250? More than 40% said they would struggle to manage that. More than 32% of households say they’ve lost income since the pandemic began. About 26% of Americans who are currently working say they’ve experienced a paycut, while 36% are working fewer hours. In our poll, certain demographic groups seem much more cushioned against this economic shock than others. Twenty-seven percent of white respondents said an unexpected $250 expense would be difficult to cover, compared to 50% of Hispanics and 59% of African Americans, like Thomas Benton."
Source: https://www.marketplace.org/2020/05/05/many-lack-a-financial-backstop-amid-pandemic/
It was the height of dark comedy that the head of the Atlanta Fed, Rafael Bostic, was expressing that families with only one or two months' savings might be close to exhausting them on this week's Face the Nation. The Edison study shows that many people have zero savings, period.
--
Smart thermometers may have been a useful predictive tool. "BREAKING: Turns out New York’s death toll could be seen 18-days in advance by looking at the amount of atypical fevers being reported through @kinsa"
Source:
The sad, unfortunate fact is that the current loss of life being felt in many places could have been avoided or mitigated by people taking the appropriate measures such as strict isolation, combined with using the data we've had available. While no data is perfect, there's been enough since January to know COVID-19 was going to be a problem. We've done the opposite, and the toll will be unnecessarily high because of it.
--
A pre-print study suggests that 99% of people with COVID-19 developed antibodies. "Here we show that the vast majority of confirmed COVID19 patients seroconvert, potentially providing immunity to reinfection. We also report that in a large proportion of individuals, viral genome can be detected via PCR in the upper respiratory tract for weeks post symptom resolution, but it is unclear if this signal represents infectious virus."
Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.30.20085613v1
This study, once peer-reviewed, could provide two useful points. First, as many of the people who've had the disease can confirm, it is a LONG illness. It's not something you bounce back from quickly. Second, if they are seroconverting, that would be good news for immunity to COVID-19 in the future.
--
A useful roundup by Dr. Ian Mackay on the origins of SARS-CoV-2. Still no evidence of any kind it was engineered, and no evidence it escaped from a lab, either.
Source: https://virologydownunder.com/we-dont-yet-know-the-origin-story-for-sars-cov-2/
Beware of anyone who's insisting they have the inside secret of SARS-CoV-2's origins. Chances are they're relying on false information or pushing an ideological agenda, rather than what science currently knows.
--
A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason. Consider also spraying the bottoms of your shoes with a general disinfectant (alcohol/bleach/peroxide) when you return home.
2. Wear gloves and a mask when out of your home.
3. Stay home as much as possible.
4. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
5. Donate any PPE you can. https://getusppe.org/give/
--
Common misinformation debunked!
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/