Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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Schools are NOT safe without ventilation and masks in the absence of vaccination. "There’s just one problem: The calculus has changed. Experience shows the B117 variant, now the dominant strain in the United States, is more contagious than the original strain, and those who are infected by that variant are more likely to suffer from severe disease. This is not just true for adults, but children too. Classes, sports and other activities where children congregate are becoming superspreader events. What’s worse is children 11 and under aren’t currently eligible for any of the vaccines, so they represent the best opportunities for the virus to continue spreading and mutating.
The best tool at our disposal to prevent the new virus from spreading further among children is to reduce their chances of exposure. If children are going to learn in person, then we need schools to be safe. That means ensuring they have all the necessary equipment and PPE they need. The CDC says good ventilation can help maintain a healthy environment in schools, either by opening windows, using portable air cleaners or improving building-wide filtration. Clean air is a more powerful disinfectant than generic bleach surface disinfection. Schools need to stop wasting money on ionizers, and instead invest in High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filters and safe UV disinfection. Unfortunately, many schools still have inadequate ventilation and uneven mask enforcement, and that needs to change."
Source: https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-covid-remains-a-dire-threat-20210515-f2rda27oszdobe7yhhvgvcaqoi-story.html
Commentary: COVID-19 is hitting kids hard. Keep them masked if they haven't been vaccinated. If possible and practical, consider keeping them as remote learners until vaccination is available for their age group.
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COVID-19 is spreading among children. "Children represented 14.1 (3,977,870/28,167,723) of all available cases. Nine states reported 18% or
more of cases were children."
Source: https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/AAP%20and%20CHA%20-%20Children%20and%20COVID-19%20State%20Data%20Report%205.27.21%20FINAL.pdf
Commentary: If you have a child 12 or older and the mRNA vaccines are available in your region, get your kid vaccinated. The vaccines are safe and effective in kids; the disease most assuredly is dangerous to their health.
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Evidence still suggests SARS-CoV-2 is natural in origin. "In March 2020, a group of renowned evolutionary virologists analyzed the genome sequence of SARS-CoV-2 and found it was overwhelmingly likely that this virus had never been manipulated in any laboratory. Like the earlier coronaviruses SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, they theorized, it “spilled over” from its natural reservoir host (bats) to a new one (humans). Viruses jump species frequently, with unpredictable consequences. Often a virus hits an evolutionary dead end if it cannot adapt to the new host rapidly enough to be transmitted again. Sometimes, however, it can. Clues that reveal this scenario can be found by analyzing the sequence of the virus genome, and that’s exactly what this study did.
The study carefully examined whether key elements of the virus, particularly the spike protein on its surface, appeared engineered. They did not. The spike didn’t optimally bind to its receptor, ACE-2, and the interaction between the two proteins was unpredictable even using the most advanced computer algorithms. Another key feature often cited as evidence of laboratory origin is the furin cleavage site, where the spike protein is cut in half to “activate” viral material for entry into cells. The viruses most closely related to SARS-CoV-2 don’t have this site, but many others do, including other human coronaviruses. The furin site of SARS-CoV-2 has odd features that no human would design. Its sequence is suboptimal, meaning its cleavage by the enzyme furin is relatively inefficient. Any skilled virologist hoping to give a virus new properties this way would insert a furin site known to be more efficient. The SARS-CoV-2 site has more of the hallmarks of sloppy natural evolution than a human hand. Indeed, a timely analysis last year showed convincingly that it is a product of genetic recombination, a natural feature of coronavirus replication and evolution."
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/virus-origins-nature-lab/2021/06/03/dd50eb62-c4a9-11eb-93f5-ee9558eecf4b_story.html
Commentary: Despite lots of avid speculation, the genetic makeup of SARS-CoV-2 still looks natural in evolution. Think about what makes a natural diamond different than a synthetic diamond. Synthetic diamonds are perfect - TOO perfect. They lack flaws and little oddities that their natural counterparts have. That's what this study has shown over and over again - the genetic makeup of SARS-CoV-2 looks like a natural virus, not a synthetic or manipulated one.
Should we still be investigating the circumstances of its origin? Absolutely. But we also should be ensuring we're not doing so with a pre-decided narrative in mind.
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Boosters needed. "People most vulnerable to Covid-19 could require a booster of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine later this year, according to scientists who said the shot elicited a lower antibody response against the Delta variant first identified in India.
A study by researchers at the Francis Crick Institute and UCLH Biomedical Research Centre found that levels of neutralising antibodies in recipients of two shots of the vaccine were, on average, more than five times lower against the Delta variant than the original strain that emerged in Wuhan, China.
In a research letter published in the medical journal The Lancet, the scientists said that the results showed older people were the most affected and that their antibody levels declined over time.
Emma Wall, an infectious diseases consultant at UCLH, said “the most important thing” was to ensure the vaccines keep as many people as possible out of hospital.
“Our results suggest that the best way to do this is to quickly deliver second doses and provide boosters to those whose immunity may not be high enough against these new variants,” she added.
After only one dose of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine, 32 per cent of people showed a quantifiable antibody response against the Delta variant, the study found. In contrast about 79 per cent of people had a quantifiable antibody response against the original strain of coronavirus after their first jab.
Only about 25 per cent showed a response against the Beta variant, which first emerged in South Africa. It is not known exactly what level of antibodies is required to protect against disease. "
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/c00b5648-7a3b-4ce3-9ca3-a3cf848d7f2c
Source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01290-3/fulltext
Commentary: There's a good chance we'll all need boosters at some point, just like annual flu shots.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around other people, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated.
3. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home.
4. Stay home as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
5. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
6. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
7. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
8. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
To be clear, I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19.
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.