Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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Dr. Scott Gottlieb on multiple US hotspots. "I think the ventilator situation, this country is going to be really pressed. And the question is, can you move around equipment, it's gonna be very hard to do that. And I think the states that like Florida, Louisiana, Florida is likely to have a very big outbreak and on a per capita basis can be one of the hardest hit states. I mean, they're racing against the weather. Hopefully, as the weather warms, there's going to be a backstop, but they didn't act early. They have a lot of infections. And it looks like they were seated very early. And I think the feds are going to be tapped out their ability to backstop some of these other cities and states the way they did in New York is going to be limited, and you're not going to be able move those resources around so quickly."
On the outbreak:
"But I think that we're likely to see the peak based on the models we're looking at sometime in late April or early May. And then we'd have to wait a couple of weeks before we start contemplating slowly withdrawing these mitigation steps. So may as of April is going to be a difficult month being in our homes may is going to be a month of transition. As we get into June, we're going to start coming back again. And then in July and August. We should be you know, coming back to some element of our normal lives with a lot of new new introductions of features to try to prevent this from happening again."
Source:
To the extent that there is a new normal, it will be something we'll adapt in and after the summer. For now, plan for April and May to be in shelter-in-place mode in the United States, especially for communities just ramping up. The same is true for other nations - plot your trajectories based on Italy, Spain, and the US to see where you are. Some nations are already having excellent results from lockdowns, nations that acted very quickly.
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More reason to wear masks any time you're near others in an enclosed environment and stay further away than 6 feet: clouds of droplets from a single sneeze can travel 7-8 meters (23-27 feet) and stay in the air for minutes at a time. "Owing to the forward momentum of the cloud, pathogen-bearing droplets are propelled much farther than if they were emitted in isolation without a turbulent puff cloud trapping and carrying them forward. Given various combinations of an individual patient’s physiology and environmental conditions, such as humidity and temperature, the gas cloud and its payload of pathogen-bearing droplets of all sizes can travel 23 to 27 feet (7-8 m).3,4 Importantly, the range of all droplets, large and small, is extended through their interaction with and trapping within the turbulent gas cloud, compared with the commonly accepted dichotomized droplet model that does not account for the possibility of a hot and moist gas cloud."
Source: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763852
Stay away from others. Wear a mask at all times in enclosed spaces, without exception.
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NY Governor Andrew Cuomo has put out a call asking any healthcare professionals who are not currently working the pandemic to travel to New York if possible.
Source:
Down the road, New York medical staff will be essential in other communities, doubly so because those who have recovered from COVID19 will be able to work with much less PPE.
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Folks in the data science and bioinformatics community, the UK Royal Society has put out a call for anyone with scientific modelling experience to join their pandemic modeling group.
Source: https://epcced.github.io/ramp/
I regret not having background in this area, but if you do, sign up to volunteer. They're looking for specific types of modeling and simulation skills to help forecast outbreaks.
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A US Navy military unit is deploying to Texas and New Orleans for logistical support for the pandemic, according to the Navy Times. "A 450-person Navy medical unit has been put on “prepare to deploy” orders to ship out to Texas and New Orleans over the next several days to help aid in COVID-19 relief efforts, U.S. Northern Command announced Monday. On the west coast, the hospital ship USNS Mercy arrived in Long Beach, California, Friday and has received its first patients Monday, according to a news release. Both ships have the capacity to aid about 1,000 patients boasting about a dozen operating rooms and 80 intensive care unit beds, according to a release. NORTHCOM is also deploying three Army hospital units to Washington and New Jersey that are expected to be operational by April 2, a release detailed."
Source: https://www.navytimes.com/news/coronavirus/2020/03/30/450-person-navy-medical-unit-told-to-prepare-to-deploy-to-texas-and-new-orleans-to-aid-in-covid-19-pandemic-efforts/
Want to figure out where the hotspots are? Follow the logistical chains. Where the US is mobilizing its military to assist with logistics, there's more trouble than might appear at first look.
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The Greater Pittsburgh Community Food Bank had mile-long lines of cars for food pickup. "The last two food distributions drew massive crowds and caused major delays on Route 837. The food bank anticipates helping out about 1,700 families today. Food is going fast right now during the coronavirus pandemic."
Source: https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/03/30/greater-pittsburgh-community-food-bank-duquesne/
If you have the means, please consider making extra contributions to your local food bank. With unemployment so high, families will need every bit of help possible.
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The United States is not alone in inadequate PPE for healthcare workers. A medical fetish costume company donated its entire supply of gear to the UK's National Health Service. "A medical fetish company in the U.K. has donated its entire stock of disposable scrubs to a hospital after being contacted by "desperate" health officials. MedFetUK said it had been contacted by National Health Service (NHS) representatives from across the country who were trying to procure basic protective equipment and clothing for health workers tackling the coronavirus pandemic. The company didn't identify the hospital where it sent the "few sets" of scrubs that it had, but said it was located in the south of England. MedFetUK added it was "scandalous" that it was "being sought out as last-resort supplier" for the NHS during a crisis, adding that claims from politicians that health workers were getting what they needed to were not true."
Source: https://www.newsweek.com/medical-fetish-site-donates-stock-nhs-1494951
In a war effort, everyone has to contribute. A reminder that if you have spare PPE, contact your local healthcare facilities to donate it.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands often, and every time you are in or out of your home for any reason. Consider also spraying the bottoms of your shoes with a general disinfectant (alcohol/bleach/peroxide) when you return home.
2. Wear gloves and appropriate protective equipment if you have it when out of your home in any enclosed airspace (stores, etc.).
3. Stay home. Just stay home.
4. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
5. Donate any PPE you can. https://getusppe.org/give/