Lunchtime Pandemic Reading, 31-January-2025
5 year anniversary of this newsletter that I never wanted to celebrate
Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crises and how to manage them. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from a qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific medical situation over advice from people on the Internet.
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Introduction and Commentary
We celebrated a peculiar milestone this week: this newsletter, which I was really hoping to retire after a year, just hit the five year mark. Five years since I first started emailing conferences on January 27, 2020, asking if we should plan to go virtual.
And we are back where we started, only worse off.
In the USA, a new presidential administration is in place, and as it was 5 years ago, the new administration is exceptionally fact-resistant, anti-science, and anti-data. For the first time in 60+ years, the CDC did not publish the weekly Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report; it has not published since January 16, the last Monday in the former administration. This weekly report contains useful health and medical information about threats to public health.
Additionally, national data collection in the USA has been severely impaired; the new administration has blocked all scientific publication of data that is not automated. This was the last snapshot taken of influenza A wastewater data at the national level:
The tale it tells is pretty clear. Now, whether this is seasonal or the sign of something bigger, we’ll need to rely on state and local data for the foreseeable future.
So what should we do, now that at a national level, we’re flying blind with indicators that could hint towards an influenza pandemic?
Here’s the good news: you’ve done it already, 5 years ago. We all know what to do, and it’s pretty straightforward. We’ve danced this dance and we know the steps.
First and foremost, wear N95 or better masks in indoor or crowded spaces. This is the first, best line of defense you have against crud in the air, and there’s no shortage of candidates, from COVID to influenza to tuberculosis (!) to norovirus. Unlike vaccines which are calibrated for specific diseases, masks are universally protective.
Speaking of vaccines, get whatever boosters you’re eligible for, for anything. Talk to your healthcare provider about what you should get, and get current. Specifically make sure you’re up to date on your flu and COVID boosters, but it wouldn’t hurt to get anything else, too. Up for a TDAP in a couple of years? Ask if your insurance will cover it now.
Wash your hands with soap and water after being in contact with high traffic surfaces outside your home. Alcohol based sanitizer is good at some things, but ineffective against others (like norovirus). Soap and water plus vigorous washing is the best bet. Hydrogen peroxide is effective for surface decontamination, and the strength sold at your local pharmacy (typically 3%) is plenty strong enough. (An added benefit is that hydrogen peroxide leaves nothing behind that pets or kids could ingest once it evaporates)
For buildings, offices, and facilities, installing UV-C lights at 254nm wavelengths will sanitize air moving through HVAC systems. This is VERY inexpensive and should be standard procedure for any HVAC systems. Remember that UV-C, like all things that sanitize, is bad for living cells (hence why it’s good at sanitizing) so make sure it’s installed properly.
Restock things like masks, gloves, etc. And basic supplies, as always. Even without airborne disease, there’s no shortage of things like wildfires, hurricanes, and other disasters that can disrupt your life. If you have the means to do so, have a little extra stuff on hand, basics like acetaminophen/paracetemol (Tylenol) and ibuprofen (Advil), diphenhydramine (Benadryl), aspirin, plus whatever your healthcare provider has prescribed you. And hey, an extra package of toilet paper can’t hurt.
The key is this: like 5 years ago, things seem fine now. And there’s a chance they remain fine, though that window seems to be closing more every day as H5N1 spreads all over the place and we do nothing to control it. NOW is the time to make sure you have all your preparations at the ready, when no one’s panicking. And if we’re completely wrong? Well, then you have a little extra stuff on hand that you’ll eventually use anyway. By no means should you go all prepper, but you don’t want to be throwing hands at Costco over toilet paper again either if things go bad.
Let’s dig into the news.
Avian Flu Strikes Second Biggest Us Egg Producer
Source: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/avian-flu-strikes-second-biggest-us-egg-producer
Summary: Avian flu has been detected at a major US egg farm, potentially reducing egg supply and raising prices. The virus continues to spread among birds and mammals in the US. European health agencies are monitoring mutations that could increase the risk to humans, emphasizing the need for rapid detection and international collaboration.
Excerpt: Rose Acre Farms, the nation's second largest egg producer, said yesterday that tests have confirmed avian flu at its facility in Seymour, Indiana, which could further stretch the supply of eggs. European health groups issued a guide for assessing avian flu mutations that may pose a risk to humans.
So What?: Expect possible egg price increases. Scientists are watching for bird flu changes that could affect human health. Stay informed about food safety and potential health risks.
Bird Flu Now Considered Widespread In Mass., Officials Say
Summary: Massachusetts officials have declared bird flu widespread in the state. They urge residents to avoid contact with sick or dead birds. The H5N1 virus is causing numerous bird deaths and poses a risk to pets, especially cats. Bird flu is also impacting dairy cattle and egg supplies, potentially raising prices. Human infections remain rare.
Excerpt: Massachusetts officials announced Wednesday that bird flu is now considered to be widespread in the state and urged the public to avoid handling birds or other animals that are dead or appear sick. Cats are highly susceptible to the illness, so officials are urging anyone with cats in an affected area to keep their felines indoors.
So What?: Bird flu is active in Massachusetts. Protect pets by keeping cats indoors and dogs leashed away from wildlife. Be aware of potential egg price increases and avoid handling sick birds.
Will Bird Flu Spark A Human Pandemic? Scientists Say The Risk Is Rising
Summary: Experts are concerned that bird flu's risk to humans is growing as the virus adapts to infect cows and other mammals. While most human cases have been mild, some are severe, especially from bird-to-human transmission. Scientists are tracking virus variants and warn that continued spread in animals increases the chance of a human pandemic.
Excerpt: Scientists warn that the risk of a bird flu pandemic is increasing as H5N1 variants adapt to mammals, including cows. Emerging data indicate that variants of the avian influenza virus H5N1 that are spreading in North America can cause severe disease and death, especially when passed directly to humans from birds.
So What?: The risk of a bird flu pandemic is increasing. Stay informed about developments and practice good hygiene if you are around animals, especially on farms.
How Are H5N9 And H5N1 Different? What To Know After California Bird Flu Outbreak
Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/h5n9-h5n1-bird-flu-what-to-know/
Summary: A new strain of bird flu, H5N9, has emerged in California poultry, resulting from a mixing of H5N1 with other viruses in ducks. While H5N1 remains the dominant strain, this new reassortment highlights the virus's ongoing evolution. Human-to-human transmission of bird flu is not yet detected, but monitoring and biosecurity are crucial.
Excerpt: An H5N9 bird flu strain was found at a California duck farm, the first time it caused severe disease in US poultry. Scientists believe the H5N9 was the result of a "reassortment," where H5N1 was able to genetically mix with other influenza viruses inside of a duck.
So What?: Bird flu viruses are changing. Continued vigilance and public health measures are important to track and manage these evolving threats.
Human Case Of Avian Flu Detected In England
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/human-case-of-avian-flu-detected-in-england
Summary: A person in England contracted avian flu (H5N1) after close contact with infected birds on a farm. Bird-to-human transmission is rare, and the risk to the general public remains very low. Health officials are tracing contacts and emphasizing biosecurity measures for poultry owners to prevent further spread.
Excerpt: UKHSA has confirmed a case of influenza A(H5N1) in a person in the West Midlands region. Bird-to-human transmission of avian influenza is rare and has previously occurred a small number of times in the UK.
So What?: Human bird flu cases, though rare, can occur with close contact to infected birds. This highlights the importance of farm worker safety and biosecurity practices in poultry farming.
Kansas Tuberculosis Outbreak Now Largest In Us
Source: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/tuberculosis/kansas-tuberculosis-outbreak-now-largest-us
Summary: A tuberculosis (TB) outbreak in Kansas City is now the largest in the US since the 1950s, with 67 active and 79 latent cases reported since 2024. While public risk is low, health officials are working to control it. US TB cases are generally increasing. The article also mentions penicillin allergy and berry safety.
Excerpt: The current Kansas City, Kan. Metro tuberculosis (TB) outbreak is the largest documented outbreak in U.S. history, presently (since the 1950s, when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) started monitoring and reporting TB cases). Data on the outbreak from the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE) show that 67 active TB cases and 79 latent cases have been reported since the beginning of 2024.
So What?: A significant TB outbreak is occurring in Kansas City. While general public risk is low, be aware of TB symptoms if you are in the affected area and seek medical advice if concerned.
A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. P100 respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too and start around US$40 for a reusable respirator (disclosure: Amazon affiliate link). Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
Masks are highly effective against ALL airborne pathogens.
Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
Get vaccinated as soon as you're eligible to for COVID and flu, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen, including boosters. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. There are new vaccines available now in addition to the boosters we already know that may be more efficacious and tolerated better, so talk to your healthcare provider about which vaccine or booster is the best choice for you.
Check COVID and flu dashboards to see how prevalent it is in your region. Focus especially on wastewater reporting. A couple of useful dashboards:
In areas of above-average prevalence, stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemics give another crazy plot twist to the economy, or you know, a global war breaks out.
Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
If you think you may have been exposed to COVID or influenza, purchase several rapid antigen tests and/or acquire them from your healthcare provider or government. This will detect diseases only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. This multi-test from the EU does COVID, influenza, and RSV (disclosure: Amazon affiliate link).
Remember, you are not clear until you take 2 tests that are negative, 24 hours apart.
Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414291297464321
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare a competing interest on Amazon affiliate links for products shared in this newsletter, for which I earn approximately 1% of the purchase price of anything purchased through those links. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and AI consulting firm. I have no clients in anything related to COVID or other communicable diseases.
I am not a qualified healthcare provider and I do not provide medical advice. Only take medical advice from your qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific details and can provide customized recommendations for you.