Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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Dr. Angela Rasmussen on the WHO briefing on the origins of SARS-CoV-2. "Barely out and already my feed is filling up with (some pretty racist) complaints that this report is incomplete and dissatisfying.
But did you really expect a 2 week mission to yield a definitive answer about SARS-CoV-2 origins?
Origin investigations take years, even decades.
The purpose of this mission was really to lay the groundwork for collaborative studies moving forward.
Like it or not, that requires working cooperatively with China.
Like it or not, @WHO isn't equipped to conduct an audit of WIV's freezers or records or interrogate its staff.
This report contains some new information: about excess mortality, ILI, environmental testing, retrospective sample testing, animal testing. It also acknowledges there is a lot more to do.
And, at its end, the report discusses four possible hypotheses for emergence: direct zoonotic spillover, spillover through an intermediate amplifying species, via the food chain, and laboratory accident.
None of these have been proven or excluded. There's more work to do.
So before you start screaming about the CCP, or wet markets, or people who were part of this mission, or DEMANDING AN INVESTIGATION, know that this is exactly the take-home of the report: there needs to be further investigation. That will quite possibly take years.
For the record:
-I think zoonotic spillover, direct or via an intermediate, is the most likely scenario based on the data we have. That is my OPINION. It doesn't exclude other hypotheses.
-Frozen food is possible, but unlikely.
-Lab leak is possible, but unlikely.
Understanding the origin is absolutely crucial to preventing future pandemics, but WIV JUST HAPPENED TO BE WORKING ON BAT CoVS IN WUHAN I'M JUST ASKING QUESTIONS does not add anything to these efforts.
Neither does popping off about gain of function research or the Mojiang miners or who is friends/co-authors/karaoke duet partners with who. If you don't want to be called a conspiracy theorist, then don't spin origin theories that include baseless allegations of conspiracies.
Origin investigations going forward need to be done by qualified, clear-eyed, international experts, not a posse of anonymous internet sleuths.
The WHO report is just the first step in a much longer effort. Let them follow up on the foundation they've laid."
Source:
Source: https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus/origins-of-the-virus
Commentary: The key point here is that it will be years before we understand the origins of SARS-CoV-2. Any "definitive" conclusions are... well, they aren't.
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Moderna testing refrigerator-stable vaccine. "Moderna, Inc. (Nasdaq: MRNA), a biotechnology company pioneering messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines, today announced that the first participants have been dosed in the Phase 1 study of mRNA-1283, the Company’s next generation COVID-19 vaccine candidate.
“We are pleased to begin this Phase 1 study of our next generation COVID-19 vaccine candidate, mRNA-1283,” said Stéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer of Moderna. “Our investments in our mRNA platform have enabled us to develop this next generation vaccine candidate, which is a potential refrigerator-stable vaccine that could facilitate easier distribution and administration in a wider range of settings, including potentially for developing countries. We remain committed to helping address this ongoing public health emergency.”
This Phase 1 dose-ranging study will assess the safety and immunogenicity of mRNA-1283, a next-generation vaccine candidate against COVID-19. mRNA-1283 encodes for the portions of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein critical for neutralization, specifically the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) and N-terminal Domain (NTD). The encoded mRNA-1283 antigen is being developed as a potentially refrigerator-stable mRNA vaccine that will facilitate distribution and administration by healthcare providers. This Phase 1 study will evaluate three dose levels, 10 µg, 30 µg, and 100 µg, of the mRNA-1283 vaccine candidate given to healthy adults as a 2-dose series, 28 days apart, and one dose level, 100 µg, of mRNA-1283 given to healthy adults in a single dose. These will be compared with a 2-dose series of 100 µg of mRNA-1273, the currently authorized dose level. mRNA-1283 is intended to be evaluated in futures studies for use as a booster dose for previously vaccinated or seropositive as well as in a primary series for seronegative individuals."
Source: https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/first-participants-dosed-phase-1-study-evaluating-mrna-1283
Commentary: This is an exciting development. If the mRNA vaccine can be more stable at a wider range of temperatures, they can be deployed to many more parts of the world than major cities that have the infrastructure for cold storage.
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People don't know whether they're eligible for vaccines. "While a growing share of adults say they now have enough information about where and when they will be able to get vaccinated, three in ten – including larger shares of Hispanic adults, young adults, and those with lower incomes – are unsure whether they’re currently eligible to receive the vaccine in their state. Among those who believe they are eligible, about one-third say they tried to make an appointment to get vaccinated and about half of this group says their attempt was unsuccessful. In a sign that the appointment process may be getting easier at least for older adults, the share of those ages 65 and over who say they tried but were unable to get an appointment declined from 16% in February to 7% this month."
Source: https://www.kff.org/report-section/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-march-2021-findings/
Commentary: Medical and scientific communications remain a substantial challenge throughout the pandemic. The most important thing you can do individually is to help those around you identify their eligibility and get them registered to receive the vaccine as soon as they're eligible - as well as where to get it.
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P.1 easier to neutralize than B.1.351. "Terminating the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic relies upon pan-global vaccination. Current vaccines elicit neutralizing antibody responses to the virus spike derived from early isolates. However, new strains have emerged with multiple mutations: P.1 from Brazil, B.1.351 from South Africa and B.1.1.7 from the UK (12, 10 and 9 changes in the spike respectively). All have mutations in the ACE2 binding site with P.1 and B.1.351 having a virtually identical triplet: E484K, K417N/T and N501Y, which we show confer similar increased affinity for ACE2. We show that, surprisingly, P.1 is significantly less resistant to naturally acquired or vaccine induced antibody responses than B.1.351 suggesting that changes outside the RBD impact neutralisation. Monoclonal antibody 222 neutralises all three variants despite interacting with two of the ACE2 binding site mutations, we explain this through structural analysis and use the 222 light chain to largely restore neutralization potency to a major class of public antibodies."
Source: https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)00428-1
Commentary: This is generally good news for the moment; the P.1 variant is spreading widely through Brazil as well as other nations, but this study indicates that the vaccines do work well against it for now. It must be a global priority to shut down the virus everywhere, so that it doesn't mutate as quickly and develop additional resistance against vaccines.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Always wear the best mask available to you when out of your home and you'll be around other people. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to.
3. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason.
4. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters, preferably more. Avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
5. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
6. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
7. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
8. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.