Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
---
This is big. 90% reduction in transmission by vaccines. "Prospective cohorts of 3,950 health care personnel, first responders, and other essential and frontline workers completed weekly SARS-CoV-2 testing for 13 consecutive weeks. Under real-world conditions, mRNA vaccine effectiveness of full immunization (≥14 days after second dose) was 90% against SARS-CoV-2 infections regardless of symptom status; vaccine effectiveness of partial immunization (≥14 days after first dose but before second dose) was 80%.
Authorized mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are effective for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection in real-world conditions. COVID-19 vaccination is recommended for all eligible persons."
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm7013e3_w
Commentary: Two things stand out: first, if you're getting a 2-dose vaccine, get BOTH doses on schedule. Don't skip out on shot 2. Second, 90% reduction in transmission is HUGE. If we get everyone vaccinated, it's game over for the pandemic and then it just becomes part of our normal life like influenza - manageable. The end of lockdowns. The end of substantial restrictions. (though keep wearing masks, because who enjoyed not getting the common cold this past winter?)
Get your shot as soon as you're able to.
---
It's not game over yet. "WASHINGTON — As Covid-19 cases begin again to spike throughout the United States, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky issued an urgent plea to Americans Monday to continue following public health measures.
“We have so much to look forward to, so much promise and potential of where we are and so much reason for hope, but right now I’m scared,” said Walensky, who noted she has begun experiencing a “recurring” feeling of “impending doom.”
The plea came amid news that positive Covid-19 cases have increased by 10.6% compared to the previous seven-day period. Hospitalizations and deaths, which are a lagging metric, also rose over the last seven-day period, by 4.2% and 2.6%, respectively.
Daily infections are way down in the U.S. from the January peaks, but they stagnated at about 40,000 to 50,000 cases a day, Walensky said. Now, they’re at 60,000 to 70,000.
Once cases make that initial jump, Walensky said, “things really have a tendency to surge, and surge big.”
The urgent plea about another potential surge in Covid-19 cases comes as a number of states have begun loosening Covid-19 restrictions as larger percentages of their population are vaccinated against Covid-19. More than 28% of the U.S. population has now received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, according to CDC data. But lots of people across all demographics are still waiting for immunizations, and some states are reporting serious increases in cases and even hospitalizations among younger people.
“I so badly want to be done, I know you all so badly want to be done,” Walensky added. “We are just almost there, but not quite yet. And so I am asking you to just hold on a little bit longer, to get vaccinated when you can so that all the people that we all love will still be here when this pandemic ends.”
Walenksy reiterated warnings from many experts that the U.S. could be following behind by a few weeks what Europe has been experiencing. Countries there have seen some of their biggest spikes of the pandemic, leading to another round of restrictions and lockdowns.
The causes for current increases are primarily twofold, experts say.
One, a more transmissible and seemingly deadlier variant of the virus, called B.1.1.7, has been gathering steam in the country and is now at the point where it can drive up transmission. The variant first emerged in the U.K. and has driven spikes in other European countries. Another variant, B.1.526, seems to be driving some spread in the Northeast of the U.S., as well as B.1.1.7."
Source: https://www.statnews.com/2021/03/29/warning-impending-doom-cdc-director-covid-19/
Commentary: Don't walk off the field at the top of the 7th inning and hand victory to the virus team. Stay the course for just a few months more. Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Stay out of places that aren't your home as much as you can. There is an end in sight, but it requires us to NOT hand the opposing team some easy wins.
---
Vaccines pass immunity to newborns. "The Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna Covid-19 vaccines are effective in pregnant and lactating women, who can pass protective antibodies to newborns, according to research published Thursday in the American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology.
Researchers at Massachusetts General Hospital, Brigham and Women's Hospital and the Ragon Institute of MGH, MIT and Harvard looked at 131 women who received either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna Covid-19 vaccine. Among the participants, 84 were pregnant, 31 were lactating and 16 were not pregnant. Samples were collected between December 17, 2020 and March 2, 2021.
The vaccine-induced antibody levels were equivalent in pregnant and lactating women, compared to non-pregnant women. The antibody levels were "strikingly higher" than those resulting from coronavirus infection during pregnancy, the team noted.
"These vaccines seem to work incredibly effectively in these women," said one of the researchers, Galit Alter, a professor of medicine at the Ragon Institute.
In addition, the team found that women passed protective antibodies to their newborns, measured in breast milk and the placenta.
"Nearly all the moms were getting a pretty decent level of antibodies to their babies," said Alter, who added that additional research is needed to understand how long those protective antibodies last in newborns."
Source: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/03/25/health/pregnant-women-covid-19-vaccines-study-wellness/index.html
Commentary: This is extremely good news for expecting mothers - having a child be born with COVID-19 protection is a wonderful thing, and given that the vaccines have not been authorized for people under the age of 16, these kids will be pre-vaccinated.
---
A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Always wear the best mask available to you when out of your home and you'll be around other people. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to.
3. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason.
4. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters, preferably more. Avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
5. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
6. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
7. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
8. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
---
Common misinformation debunked!
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
---
A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.