Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
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For my American friends, if you haven't mailed back your ballot yet for the election, do not mail it back. Take it to a secure, official ballot drop box now, or destroy it and vote early in person.
Source:
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The cognitive cost of COVID-19 infections. "People recovering from COVID-19 may suffer significant brain function impacts, with the worst cases of the infection linked to mental decline equivalent to the brain ageing by 10 years, researchers warned on Tuesday.
A non-peer-reviewed study of more than 84,000 people, led by Adam Hampshire, a doctor at Imperial College London, found that in some severe cases, coronavirus infection is linked to substantial cognitive deficits for months.
“Our analyses ... align with the view that there are chronic cognitive consequences of having COVID-19,” the researchers wrote in a report of their findings. “People who had recovered, including those no longer reporting symptoms, exhibited significant cognitive deficits.”
Cognitive tests measure how well the brain performs tasks - such as remembering words or joining dots on a puzzle. Such tests are widely used to assess brain performance in diseases like Alzheimer’s, and can also help doctors assess temporary brain impairments.
Hampshire’s team analysed results from 84,285 people who completed a study called the Great British Intelligence Test. The findings, which have yet to be reviewed by other experts, were published online on the MedRxiv website.
The cognitive deficits were “of substantial effect size”, particularly among people who had been hospitalised with COVID-19, the researchers said, with the worst cases showing impacts “equivalent to the average 10-year decline in global performance between the ages of 20 to 70”."
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-brains-int-idUSKBN27C1RN
Commentary: Fair warning that this study is a pre-print and hasn't been peer reviewed yet, but all the more reason to remain vigilant about protecting yourself and your loved ones from COVID-19.
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An excellent visualization of the layers of COVD-19 defense.
Source:
Commentary: No one layer guarantees protection, but many layers stacked together increase safety.
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Confirmation the D614G mutation does increase infectivity. "During the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in humans a D614G substitution in the spike (S) protein emerged and became the predominant circulating variant (S-614G) of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, whether the increasing prevalence of the S-614G variant represents a fitness advantage that improves replication and/or transmission in humans or is merely due to founder effects remains elusive. Here, we generated isogenic SARS-CoV-2 variants and demonstrate that the S-614G variant has (i) enhanced binding to human ACE2, (ii) increased replication in primary human bronchial and nasal airway epithelial cultures as well as in a novel human ACE2 knock-in mouse model, and (iii) markedly increased replication and transmissibility in hamster and ferret models of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Collectively, our data show that while the S-614G substitution results in subtle increases in binding and replication in vitro, it provides a real competitive advantage in vivo, particularly during the transmission bottle neck, providing an explanation for the global predominance of S-614G variant among the SARS-CoV-2 viruses currently circulating."
Source: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.27.357558v1
Commentary: This is good confirmation that the disease is more infectious now. Let's hope this is the last substantial mutation for some time; a disaster would be a substantial mutation in the protein spike that attaches to the ACE2 receptor; many vaccines are predicated on that mechanism. That kind of substantial mutation could render vaccines useless until they're recalibrated.
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Canadian Thanksgiving warning. "As the holiday season approaches amid a surge in novel coronavirus cases across the United States, a Thanksgiving-related spike in Canada could serve as a cautionary tale.
Case counts in much of Canada are climbing, even in parts of the country that imposed new autumn restrictions. Canadians celebrate Thanksgiving on the second Monday of October, and both provincial and federal officials have pointed to the holiday as a culprit in the spike.
“In some areas we are learning that gathering during the Thanksgiving weekend contributed to the elevated case counts we are seeing today,” Howard Njoo, Canada’s deputy chief public health officer, told reporters Tuesday in Ottawa. “Our actions matter.”
Before the holiday, officials advised Canadians to curtail their plans by limiting celebrations to those living under the same roof or moving the party online, but it is not clear how widely the advice was heeded.
Canadian officials are now dealing with the aftermath of the holiday. Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, Deena Hinshaw, said last week that the Thanksgiving-related cases showed how the virus can exploit human interaction.
In Ontario, officials logged a record-high number of daily cases over the weekend. The province announced restrictions this month in hard-hit areas, including a 28-day ban on indoor dining."
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/10/27/thanksgiving-coronavirus-canada-united-states/
Commentary: Canada was already seeing a second wave as early as September 1, but Canadian Thanksgiving on October 12 has propelled Canadian case counts to all-time highs, going from a low of 300 cases a day in the summer to over 2,700 cases per day yetersday. This is a precautionary tale for any nation with holidays that involve gathering; gathering equals spread.
As unhappy and uncomfortable as it is, plan to stay home and stay away from gatherings in person for the holidays. Video chat, call, text - do anything EXCEPT be in the same physical space as your loved ones.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason. Consider also spraying the bottoms of your shoes with a general disinfectant (alcohol/bleach/peroxide) when you return home. Remember that cleaners are NEVER to be ingested or injected.
2. Always wear a mask when out of your home and if going to a high risk area, wear goggles. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too.
3. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters, preferably more. Avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
4. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
5. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
6. Participate in your local political process. For Americans, go to Vote.org and register/verify your vote.
7. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit.
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.