Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
---
B.1.351 has been verified in the United States, in South Carolina. "Viruses are constantly changing, leading to the emergence of variants. Variants are closely monitored for their ability to spread faster or cause more disease. South Carolina public health officials were notified late yesterday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of a South Carolina sample that was tested at LabCorp and determined to be the B.1.351 variant originally identified in South Africa. Also, DHEC's Public Health Laboratory tested samples on Jan. 25 and yesterday identified a separate case of the same variant. Since June 2020, DHEC's Public Health Laboratory has been performing tests of random samples in order to identify any instances of the variant viruses. DHEC’s Public Health Laboratory will continue to conduct this important sampling to identify any other changes in the virus. At this point in time, there is no known travel history and no connection between these two cases. Both are adults; one from the Lowcountry and one from the Pee Dee region. To protect their privacy, no further information will be released."
Source: https://scdhec.gov/news-releases/south-carolina-public-health-officials-detect-nations-first-known-cases-covid-19
Commentary: The alarming point about this is the lack of travel or connection. This means B.1.351 is spreading within the community. Mask up with the best mask you have available.
---
Planetary report. "In its weekly situation report, the WHO said cases declined 15% from last week. The largest drops were in the European and African regions. Of the five countries reporting the highest number of cases, all had drops except for France, where the illness level rose 10%. Those that had the biggest decreases included the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland (24%) and the United States (20%).
However, in the Americas, for example, sharp rises were seen in several locations, including Mexico, where cases have tripled over the past weeks in some regions, Caribbean countries and territories, Colombia, Paraguay, and Chile, the WHO's Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) said today at a briefing.
In South America, hospitalization rates are rising in much of the region but are especially alarming in Brazil, where nearly three-quarters of intensive care unit (ICU) beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients, and people in the hard-hit city of Manaus wait for hospital and ICU beds, the group said.
Peru, experiencing its second surge, yesterday ordered a lockdown for Lima and nine of the country's regions to help lighten the burden on hospitals, which are near collapse, according to Reuters.
In Europe, some countries have reported recent surges, including Portugal, Spain, and France.
Regarding global deaths, about 96,000 were reported to the WHO last week, about the same as the week before. Fatalities rose in two WHO regions: the Americas and the Eastern Mediterranean."
Source: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/01/cases-drop-main-global-pandemic-hot-spots-surge-elsewhere
Commentary: For the critics of projects like the WHO COVAX project, this is why it's essential. When you watch visualizations of the pandemic, it moves around like a wildfire. As one area settles down, other areas flare up. Only massive, mass vaccination can put the fire out.
---
What masks to wear? I would amend Dr. Allen's list to start with N100/P100, then N99/P99, then the rest of the list.
"1. N95 (if you can find)
2. KF94 (S. Korea)
3. KN95s (*only* if manufacturer holds a 'NIOSH Certificate')
4. double-mask (cloth mask on top of surgical)
5. surgical mask
6. cloth mask that fits well"
Source:
Commentary: Higher-quality masks are once again running low or out of stock entirely. Ever since the new strains became apparent, I've been suggesting that you may want to stock up on higher-quality masks. This is probably your last chance to do so.
---
Positive results coming from Israel. "Just 0.04% of Israelis caught COVID-19 after two shots of Pfizer vaccine. Maccabi health fund releases preliminary results of a study comparing vaccinated and not vaccinated members’ likability to contract the disease and said vaccine 92% effective.
A total of 371 out of 715,425 Israelis who are at least a week after receiving two doses of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine have contracted the virus, a rate of around 0.04%, with 16 being sent to the hospital, according to a Health Ministry report released Thursday.
Immunity to COVID-19 is supposed to kick in a week after receiving the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine.
According to the studies conducted by Pfizer, the vaccine had an efficacy of about 95% – which is considered very high. The Israeli data appear to confirm the inoculation’s effectiveness, showing even more promising results.
Later in the date, the Maccabi health fund – one of the four in Israel – released the first results about the vaccination campaign on its members, which the organization also compared the data of a control group who did not get inoculated.
Some 248,000 Maccabi members were already a week after the second shot as of Thursday. Of those, just 66 got infected with the virus, the majority of them over the age of 55 and about half of them with pre-existing conditions. All those infected experienced only a mild form of the disease and none was hospitalized.
Over the same period of time, 8,250 new cases of COVID-19 emerged in the control group of about 900,000 people with a diverse health profile. Those who were not inoculated were therefore 11 times more likely to get the disease than those who were immunized, showing a 92% effectiveness.
“The fact that seven to 18 days after receiving the second dose the vaccine shows a 92% efficacy is very encouraging data,” Head of the Information and Digital Health Division at Maccabi, Dr. Anat Aka Zohar commented."
Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/israel-shows-promising-results-from-pfizer
Commentary: Two things stand out here. First, 92% efficacy in a real world population is outstanding. But even more important, for those who did contract the virus, none were hospitalized. That's the missing component we've all been wondering about. Wonderful news.
---
A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Always wear the best mask available to you when out of your home and you'll be around other people. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 or better mask if you can obtain it.
2. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to.
3. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason.
4. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters, preferably more. Avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
5. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
6. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
7. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
8. How to properly fit a mask:
---
Common misinformation debunked!
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
---
A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.