Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crises and how to manage them. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from a qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific medical situation over advice from people on the Internet.
This is also available as an email newsletter at
if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
Commentary:
Well hi. It's been a few months since the last update, because there hasn't been much to report. As promised, I don't send emails until there's something worth sharing. So let's dig into what's happening.
COVID dashboards that have wastewater data are available.
Sources:
Commentary: At this time, the ONLY reliable measure of COVID prevalence in an area is wastewater data. Rapid tests, to the extent that testing is being done at all, are hardly ever reported, and RT-PCR testing is down to a fraction of what it used to be. Thankfully, in a fair number of areas, wastewater testing is still happening. That tells you how prevalent the virus is in a region, which tells you what precautions to take.
How do you know when it's time to take precautions? I look at the trends in wastewater in my region. When the percentage of maximum value is below 20% and falling, that tells me that things are reasonably safe, and for a part of this summer, that has been the case where I live. That has since changed and we are now well above 40% in the region, which means precautions are once again called for.
What kinds of precautions? Here's what I do:
For low reward activities like going shopping, riding mass transit, etc. always mask. There's no reason NOT to mask - and not just for COVID. Masks work well for colds, flu, RSV, COVID, wildfire smoke, and that one dude who wore entirely too much cologne just to go to Trader Joes.
For high reward activities like having dinner out with family/friends, choose to dine outdoors whenever possible. Dining outdoors remains safe and low risk. If you can't dine outdoors and you MUST dine indoors, dine at off-peak times. Google Maps will tell you how crowded a location is at any hour of the day.
If you have to be indoors in crowded places, wear a mask as often as possible, such as at conferences/events. Any place where you have more than 50 people in a room for an extended period of time is high risk.
The current COVID strains are:
EG.5 or Eris: This is a descendant of Omicron that is now the dominant strain globally, with about 20.6% of new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. It has a mutation known as F456L that may help it spread more than other variants. The symptoms of Eris are similar to other strains of COVID-19, but it may be more transmissible and able to elude antibodies from previous infection or vaccines.
FL.1.5.1 or Fornax: This is another descendant of Omicron that shares the F456L mutation with Eris. It is the second-largest strain in the U.S., with about 13.3% of new infections. It has nearly doubled from the week prior when it was 7.1% of circulating variants.
BA.2.86 or Pirola: This is a new highly mutated strain of the virus that has a large number of mutations at some key parts of the virus. It is not very prevalent yet, but it has been detected in some countries, including one case in Michigan. It is unclear how this strain affects the disease severity, transmissibility, or vaccine efficacy.
Sources:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-covid-2023-variant-eg5-strain-what-to-know/
https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-variants-of-concern-omicron
Commentary:
COVID is now showing strong seasonality as we enter the fourth year of its prevalence. It has become endemic, and what's surprising is that it never really takes time off. It has lower prevalence during the summer months, but it doesn't just stop, whereas things like influenza and the common cold do tend to take the summers off.
Just last week, a number of friends went to a convention in the UK and COVID spread there like wildfire, affecting many attendees. The vaccines are doing their job in terms of stopping severe outcomes like death, but they are very ineffective at stopping spread.
Research continues on a pan-coronavirus vaccine, but there are no interventions available to the general public yet. For now, pay attention to wastewater data in your region if available, and remember that non-pharmaceutical interventions - aka masks - remain highly effective no matter what the virus is doing.
New COVID boosters are on the way. "The U.S. is still weeks away from getting new Covid booster shots, even as more people are not only becoming infected with Covid, but getting sick enough to be hospitalized.
The most recent week-to-week data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show a 21.6% increase in hospital stays related to Covid. The increase is far below what the nation has previously endured, however. The current level of Covid hospitalizations is a third of what it was a year ago.
There are a few new virus variants that scientists are paying attention to because they appear to be changing in ways that might make the virus more contagious. It's not known whether the boosters will be as effective against those variants.
Despite the uptick in Covid, there is no talk of reinstating mask mandates this fall, the CDC told NBC News.
The updated Covid vaccine booster is expected to be cleared by the FDA ahead of a CDC vaccine advisory panel, which is scheduled to meet on Sept. 12 to vote on whether to recommend the updated vaccines."
Commentary: As soon as the newest round of boosters is available, consider getting one. Remember that these boosters are targeted towards older variants, so they will remain effective at stopping severe outcomes, but will not do much to reduce transmission.
A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. P100 respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too and start around US$40 for a reusable respirator. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
Get vaccinated as soon as you're eligible to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen, including boosters. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. There are new vaccines available now in addition to the boosters we already know that may be more efficacious and tolerated better, so talk to your healthcare provider about which vaccine or booster is the best choice for you.
Check COVID dashboards to see how prevalent it is in your region. A couple of useful dashboards:
In areas of above-average prevalence, stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemics give another crazy plot twist to the economy, or you know, a global war breaks out.
Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
If you think you may have been exposed to COVID, purchase several rapid antigen tests and/or acquire them from your healthcare provider or government. This will detect COVID only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. https://amzn.to/3fLAoor
Remember, you are not clear until you take 2 tests that are negative, 24 hours apart.
Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414291297464321
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID or other communicable diseases. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID or other communicable diseases, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID or other communicable diseases.
I am not a qualified healthcare provider and I do not provide medical advice. Only take medical advice from your qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific details and can provide customized recommendations for you.
A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at
if you prefer the update in your inbox.