Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
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Weighing risks after vaccination. "When Americans began receiving coronavirus vaccines last month, people started fantasizing about the first thing they’d do when the pandemic ends: go back to work, visit family, hug friends. But the public discussion soon shifted. One news article after another warned about everything that could go wrong: Protection isn’t immediate; vaccinated people can still transmit the virus; vaccinated people might get mild infections that could become chronic; vaccines might not work as well against new coronavirus variants. “COVID-19 Vaccine Doesn’t Mean You Can Party Like It’s 1999,” one headline admonished. Can vaccinated people at least hang out with one another? Nope, masks and distancing are still required. “Bottom line,” another article concluded ominously: “You will need to wear a face mask after you’re vaccinated until COVID-19 cases become nearly nonexistent.”
Although scientists are still learning about how much the two government-approved vaccines reduce transmission of the coronavirus, the evidence shows that their efficacy against disease is phenomenal. Although not zero-risk, close contact between two people is safer if one has received a vaccine, and safer still if both are vaccinated. For this reason, public-health experts elsewhere in the world are emphasizing hope. In a new social-media campaign, health officials from across the European Union stress that vaccination will help people get their lives back. “I’ll do it to protect my father and organise a big family weekend get-together,” declares Belgium’s chief scientific adviser. “I did it because I want us to live normally again,” says the chief coronavirus adviser in Romania.
But in the United States, the prevailing message is that, because vaccines aren’t perfect, people who have received them shouldn’t let down their guard in any way—not even at gatherings with just a few other vaccinated people. “Based on science and how vaccines work, it certainly is likely that [such a gathering] will end up being lower-risk,” a pharmacologist from Johns Hopkins University told The Washington Post. “But right now, we just don’t know.” Government officials are no more upbeat. In response to the question of whether a vaccinated person needs to continue taking precautions, the CDC states that “not enough information is currently available” to say when—or even if—it will stop recommending the use of masks and distancing."
Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/giving-people-more-freedom-whole-point-vaccines/617829/
Commentary: The risk formula for me is fairly straightforward. If I'm around people who have been vaccinated, and I've also been vaccinated, I wouldn't have a problem not wearing a mask and doing something like having a meal in someone's home, visiting for the holidays, etc.
If I'm around people whose vaccination status I don't know or don't trust, I'll wear a mask. I don't plan to go back to eating in restaurants for quite some time, and my family has gotten more than used to takeout over the past year for when we don't want to cook.
It's now January and I've been through almost a year without a cold, cough, or other seasonal annoyances, things I attribute to frequent sanitization and always wearing a mask outside my home. I rather like this, and see no reason to stop. It costs me nothing - I already have all the gear - and not being miserable with aches, chills, etc. has been fantastic.
When conferences and events resume, I'll wear a mask all the time except when speaking on stage - and even then, I might go to a lighter weight KN95 mask until the pandemic really and truly has been squashed. Otherwise, I'll wear my regular P100 mask. For things like meals, etc. I'll plan on, weather permitting, eating my meal with colleagues outside in fresh air, or in my room.
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For US folks, see your risk levels in your county.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-risk-map.html
Commentary: This is a lovely, if depressing, visualization. The vast majority of the United States is at extremely high risk of contagion.
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A case study of a wrestling tournament. "On December 7, 2020, local public health officials in Florida county A were notified of a person with an antigen-positive SARS-CoV-2 test* result who had attended two high school wrestling tournaments held in the county on December 4 and 5. The tournaments included 10 participating high schools from three counties. The host school (school A in county A) participated in the tournaments on both days; five high school teams from two counties participated the first day only; four additional high school teams from the three counties participated the second day. A total of 130 wrestlers, coaches, and referees attended the tournaments (Table). During December 8–9, 13 wrestlers from school A received positive SARS-CoV-2 test results (Figure), including nine who were symptomatic, two who were asymptomatic, and two for whom symptom status at time of specimen collection was unknown. Local public health officials in the three counties initiated an investigation† and tested specimens from an additional 40 attendees from nine of the 10 participating schools. A total of 54 (41.5%) of the 130 tournament attendees received testing, and 38 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were identified; the minimum attack rate was 30.2% (38 of 126§), and 70.4% (38 of 54) of tests had a positive result. Among contacts of the 38 COVID-19 patients, 446 were determined by investigators to meet the CDC definition of a close contact,¶ including 62 who were household contacts and 384 who were in-school contacts (classmates, teachers, noncompeting wrestling team members, and other school athletic team members). Among these 446 contacts, five had received a diagnosis of COVID-19 during June–November and were excluded from attack rate calculations. Among 95 (21.3%) contacts who received SARS-CoV-2 testing, 41 (43.2%) received a positive test result (minimum attack rate = 9.3% [41 of 441]); 21 (51.2%) persons with positive test results were symptomatic, eight (19.5%) were asymptomatic, and symptom status for 12 (29.3%) was unknown at the time of specimen collection. Among contacts, attack rates were highest among household members (30.0%) and wrestling team members who did not attend the tournament (20.3%), as were the percentages of positive test results (60.0% among household members and 54.2% among team members). Among all contacts, the odds of receiving a positive test result were highest among household contacts (odds ratio = 2.7; 95% confidence interval = 1.2–6.0). Local health authorities reported the death of one adult contact aged >50 years."
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7004e4.htm
Commentary: The reality is that even when schools reopen, sports should not until everyone has been vaccinated. This incident had a 30% attack rate - meaning you ha a 30% chance of contracting COVID-19. That's terrible odds and much, much higher than most situations.
No vaccine, no sports. It has to be that way.
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It is safe to take the COVID-19 vaccines if attempting conception, pregnant, or breastfeeding. "One myth claims that the vaccines cause infertility by generating antibodies that not only target the coronavirus spike protein, as designed, but also inadvertently react with a protein in the placenta called syncytin-1. Supposedly, the viral protein and human protein are so similar in structure that the protective antibodies against the coronavirus will also prevent the placenta from developing properly, causing infertility.
This is completely false.
Our team compared the coronavirus’s spike protein to placental syncytin-1, and we found no notable similarity between their amino acid sequences. We analyzed serum from women with Covid-19 and did not detect any reaction between patients’ antibodies and the syncytin-1 protein. There is also no evidence or reports so far of infertility among women who have recovered from Covid-19, despite the millions who have been infected. To the contrary, women have conceived after coronavirus infection and vaccination. They include vaccinated women who became pregnant while participating in clinical trials of the vaccines. It is exceedingly unlikely that vaccine materials representing a small portion of the virus would impair fertility.
With little data and weak public messaging on coronavirus immunization during breastfeeding, women have been left to draw their own conclusions and are naturally assuming the worst. But the immunization of lactating women is practically guaranteed to benefit both mother and baby. After all, vaccines induce protective immune responses in the mother, creating antibodies that are passed to infants via breast milk and serve to protect them. And it is unlikely that the vaccine can cross into breast milk. Even if they did, they would not pose a threat to the health of a nursing baby; if ingested, these components would be digested and degraded in the gastrointestinal tract. Neither mother nor infant is at any risk for coronavirus infection from the vaccines.
For any woman who is pregnant, nursing or trying to conceive, contracting Covid-19 is almost certainly more dangerous than getting immunized. And ultimately, mass vaccination, combined with physical distancing and wearing masks, provides the only way that we can end the pandemic and protect all women, men and children from the disease."
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/26/opinion/covid-vaccine-rumors.html
Commentary: This piece is by Yale virologist Dr. Akiko Iwasaki. It's as credible as they come. Women are safe to take the COVID-19 vaccine despite misinformation to the contrary.
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The full text of the US federal response plan under the new administration.
Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/National-Strategy-for-the-COVID-19-Response-and-Pandemic-Preparedness.pdf
Commentary: This is a massive 200 page book. It's worth the read to understand what the federal strategy is now.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Always wear the best mask available to you when out of your home and you'll be around other people. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 or better mask if you can obtain it.
2. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to.
3. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason.
4. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters, preferably more. Avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
5. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
6. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
7. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
8. How to properly fit a mask:
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.