Lunchtime Pandemic Reading, 27-April-2025
90 days
Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crises and how to manage them. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from a qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific medical situation over advice from people on the Internet.
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90 days.
That’s the magic number to keep in mind as we tackle today’s issue which is more about economics than it is about disease. To be sure, diseases like COVID, RSV, influenza, etc. Are still a problem and still haven’t gone anywhere.
Apologies in advance as well that today’s issue is very USA-centric, though the general advice for 90 days is applicable to everyone.
But as we’re all about preparation, there’s a bigger problem on the horizon, and that’s economic. Checking through sites like MarineTraffic.com and eyewitness accounts from major ports in the USA, shipping traffic especially from China is down drastically. Normally, the Port of Long Beach is backed up with container ships waiting to dock. Port of Seattle has ships filling every berth. Port of Miami, Port of Oakland… you get the idea.
Most of those ports are experiencing substantial cargo shipping drops in traffic, anywhere from 20-40% right now, projected to be almost nothing in a few weeks.
Here’s why this matters, especially to folks subscribed to a pandemic reading list: almost all of our PPE, medication, medical devices, etc. That are sold in the USA are not made here. Many of the countermeasures we use like N95 masks, UV-C lights, etc. Are made in China and shipped to the USA. With a 145% tariff, a $100 medical device now costs $245.
If you are low on PPE or other important items like medications, basic supplies, etc. That are sourced from China or have substantial components in the supply chain made in China, there’s a significant chance these items may simply not be available, or may cost much more than previously.
Additionally, any time you have a major supply chain disruption (remember toilet paper in 2020?), that has ripple effects throughout the ecosystem. Container ships dwindling today means longshoremen tomorrow may not have work. The week after, truckers will have fewer loads to haul. The week after, businesses may not be able to stock shelves. All that will have massive effects on the economy.
Thus, we arrive at a number: 90 days. If you have the financial means to do so, replenish or restock all your necessities with an assumption that you will not be able to get replacements in fewer than 90 days. Ask your pharmacy or your healthcare provider to extend prescriptions and refill them early. Have basic non-perishable foods and dry stocks (like grains, for example) so that you are well-prepared. Again, if you’re financially able to do so, have a minimum of 90 days’ living expenses (all in) saved up.
Should the economic shocks bubbling under the surface not come to pass, then you’ll just have some extra stuff for a while. I’d like to be wrong about this, just like I wish I had been wrong in 2020. I’d gleefully eat crow with a side of wasabi if nothing happens, but the data around the economy does not look good. Better to be prepared than not. The window of time you have to do this is short - if you have the means to do so, stock up this week. When the general public starts to really feel the pressure of empty shelves, panic buying will ensue, and we’ll be back to throwing elbows over toilet paper again.
And for my non-USA friends, that 90 day standard is still sound counsel no matter where you live. If you have the space and the funds, a 3-month cushion against nearly any kind of shock is a good thing to have.
The good news is that in the Northern Hemisphere, we are seeing very low levels of COVID, flu, and RSV in wastewater data. The big spike over the winter is retreating, which means that while it’s always good to be cautious and always good to mask up in indoor spaces that aren’t your home, risk levels are lower now than they were over the winter months.
90 days of supply for anything essential is your goal. Start now.
A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. P100 respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too and start around US$40 for a reusable respirator (disclosure: Amazon affiliate link). Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
Masks are highly effective against ALL airborne pathogens.
Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
Get vaccinated as soon as you're eligible to for COVID and flu, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen, including boosters. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. There are new vaccines available now in addition to the boosters we already know that may be more efficacious and tolerated better, so talk to your healthcare provider about which vaccine or booster is the best choice for you.
Check COVID and flu dashboards to see how prevalent it is in your region. Focus especially on wastewater reporting. A couple of useful dashboards:
In areas of above-average prevalence, stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemics give another crazy plot twist to the economy, or you know, a global war breaks out.
Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
If you think you may have been exposed to COVID or influenza, purchase several rapid antigen tests and/or acquire them from your healthcare provider or government. This will detect diseases only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. This multi-test from the EU does COVID, influenza, and RSV (disclosure: Amazon affiliate link).
Remember, you are not clear until you take 2 tests that are negative, 24 hours apart.
Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414291297464321
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare a competing interest on Amazon affiliate links for products shared in this newsletter, for which I earn approximately 1% of the purchase price of anything purchased through those links. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and AI consulting firm. I have no clients in anything related to COVID or other communicable diseases.
I am not a qualified healthcare provider and I do not provide medical advice. Only take medical advice from your qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific details and can provide customized recommendations for you.