Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
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A new American record. "We aren’t that idiotic @jeremyfaust - our 7-day case average hasn’t yet topped our previous record high of....(checks data)... oh shit, we just did overnight!
➡️ US 7-day average has now caught up and finally breaks the highest daily case record! What a sad day. #covid19"
Source:
Commentary: It's true. We have surpassed our previous high number of new cases in America. Note that the first wave never really ended, compared to the EU. If you're in America, especially outside the Northeast, behave as you did in early April - full lockdown.
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American Airlines going back to full seating capacity, no longer distancing passengers on planes. "American Airlines said on Friday that it will no longer restrict the number of seats sold on flights beginning July 1, in an effort to come back from the impact of the coronavirus.
The announcement comes before a meeting between the chief executives of major U.S. airlines, including American, and senior U.S. officials, including Vice President Mike Pence, at the White House to discuss several virus-related travel issues and to press for government-administered temperature checks for airline passengers.
U.S. airlines are bleeding cash as travel suffers in the pandemic and some have warned capping seats sold on each flight to allow for more space between passengers is not viable."
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06/26/business/26reuters-health-coronavirus-american-airline.html
Commentary: At this point, especially with the severe outbreaks all over America, you'd have to pay me exorbitant amounts to get on a plane. Avoid all forms of mass transit unless necessary, and stay home as much as circumstances permit.
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Minnesota joins Massachusetts in showing no change in COVID infections after protests. "Infectious disease experts have warned that mass protests over the death of George Floyd could lead to another wave of COVID-19 infections. So far, Minneapolis, where the protest activity originated, has not seen a dramatic uptick in cases related to the demonstrations, the state's Department of Health told ABC News Monday.
As of late last week, 4,487 tests conducted across four testing sites specifically for protesters resulted in 62 positive cases of COVID-19, for a positivity rate of 1.4%, the department said.
Another health system in Minnesota, HealthPartners, tested 8,500 protesters in several of their clinics and had a positivity rate of 0.99%, Doug Schultz, public information officer for the Minnesota Department of Health, told MedPage Today last week.
The overall positivity rate for Minnesota is currently about 3.6% to 3.7%, according to a health official.
The results are "very encouraging," the health official told ABC News. The official attributed the low infection rate to "the fact that many or most protesters were wearing masks, the events were outside, people were often able to maintain a 6-foot distance, and any exposures were of relatively shorter duration, not several hours to the same people in the same place.""
Source: https://abcnews.go.com/US/minnesota-sees-rise-covid-19-cases-tied-protests/story?id=71393938
Commentary: This continues to be outstanding news; protesters did an excellent job, far better than their regular citizen counterparts, in wearing masks and protective equipment. Would that we could get the rest of the country to do so.
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Texas hospital admissions are increasing rapidly.
Source:
Arizona has eclipsed New York City, Brazil, and Europe. “Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, is recording as many as 2,000 cases a day, eclipsing the New York City boroughs even on their worst days...Arizona is facing more per-capita cases than recorded by any country in Europe or even by hard-hit Brazil.”
Source:
Commentary: Texas and Arizona are two of the hottest spots for outbreaks right now. And their positivity rates are around 20%, meaning testing is falling behind - and that in turn means things are worse than they appear.
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Florida closes bars. "Florida is shutting down bars in an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus after the state reported a single-day record of new infections on Friday.
Halsey Beshears, the secretary of the agency that regulates Florida bars, announced that on-premise alcohol consumption will stop immediately.
Florida shattered its single-day record of new coronavirus cases reported on Friday, adding an additional 8,942 cases, according to the state's Department of Health.
The Sunshine State's previous record, set just two days ago, was only 5,508. Florida now has 122,960 coronavirus cases.
Florida has set a record of 71,433 tests conducted, and the positivity rate was 13.05 percent."
Source: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/504704-florida-to-close-bars-after-shattering-record-of-new-coronavirus-cases
Commentary: The positivity rate that testing is aiming for is 5%; that is, 5% of the population tested has COVID, which is in line with current estimates. When the rate is higher than that, it means you're not testing enough and potentially missing large outbreaks.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason. Consider also spraying the bottoms of your shoes with a general disinfectant (alcohol/bleach/peroxide) when you return home. Remember that cleaners are never to be ingested.
2. Wear gloves and a mask when out of your home. Consider wearing a face shield if you can't breathe at all through a mask.
3. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters. Avoid indoor places as much as you can.
4. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
5. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.