Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
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With today's data, the United States has effectively erased all gains from lockdown. "The U.S. just recorded its third-highest total of new cases, as hospitalizations rise in some states.
More than 35,000 new coronavirus cases were identified across the United States on Tuesday, according to a New York Times database, the highest single-day total since late April and the third-highest total of any day of the pandemic.
As the United States continues to reopen its economy, case numbers are rising in more than 20 states, mostly in the South and West. Florida set a new record again on Tuesday, adding another 5,508 cases. Texas reported more than 5,000 cases on Tuesday, its largest single-day total yet. Arizona added more than 3,600 cases, also a record. And in Washington State, where case numbers are again trending upward, the governor said residents would have to start wearing masks in public."
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/world/coronavirus-updates.html
Commentary: All the time we spent locked down, largely wasted (depending on where, if you live in the US, you are) because people refuse to take basic precautions that benefit everyone, such as distancing, wearing masks out of the home, and basic hygiene. All I can do is encourage you to keep practicing your measures of protection. We need them now more than ever.
Here's the good news: some of the more effective PPE, like P100 respirators, are back in stock at retailers like Amazon. NOW is the time to stock up if you didn't have them when the virus spawned the first panic. If you have gear, now is a good time to replenish supplies - many things like cleaners and disinfectants are also back in stock.
And so is toilet paper.
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Meanwhile, in Brazil, the worst case scenario is unfolding. "The reasons Brazil has made such a perfect host for the coronavirus are diverse and not yet fully understood. Like the U.S. it never issued nationwide rules for social distancing. Even if the government had wanted to, the rules would have been impossible to enforce in a country of 210 million where some states are larger in land area than France. That left local officials to do as they saw fit, issuing orders that varied wildly and sometimes contradicted each other. Poverty is certainly also part of the picture: In the densely packed favelas threaded through Brazilian cities, social distancing isn’t feasible, and not working means not eating, especially with the cash-strapped state unable to provide enough support. So is the dysfunction of the government. Overcrowding in public hospitals is a long-standing problem, as is graft among the people who are supposed to build new ones."
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-06-24/coronavirus-pandemic-brazil-faces-worst-case-scenario
Commentary: We've been waiting for a day, for a nation, where the virus runs rampant, largely unchecked. It's a terrible situation for everyone involved, and it appears Brazil will be it.
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Via NY State Governor Andrew Cuomo: "I am announcing with @GovMurphy and @GovNedLamont a joint travel advisory. All individuals traveling from states with significant community spread of COVID into NY, NJ, or CT must quarantine for 14 days.
This travel advisory is effective midnight tonight."
Source:
Commentary: Key question: will this mean checkpoints on roads? Because that's how an awful lot of people are traveling right now, and that's how this is going to spread if people aren't intercepted at borders.
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Protests not the source of significant infections in Massachusetts. "NEW: @CharlieBakerMA says of 17,617 people tested for #COVID at testing sites set up for demonstrators and protestors last week, 2.5% tested positive. Baker says that’s “reasonably consistent” with positive test rates across the state"
Source:
Commentary: What we saw, at least in Massachusetts, was that protesters were outdoors and wearing appropriate protective equipment, and thus we are not seeing a spike in infections.
WEARING MASKS WORKS.
Want to see who does and doesn't require them? https://masks4all.co/what-states-require-masks/ shows us a nice map. If a state isn't green, expect cases to be higher.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason. Consider also spraying the bottoms of your shoes with a general disinfectant (alcohol/bleach/peroxide) when you return home. Remember that cleaners are never to be ingested.
2. Wear gloves and a mask when out of your home. Consider wearing a face shield if you can't breathe at all through a mask.
3. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters. Avoid indoor places as much as you can.
4. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
5. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.