Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
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Ventilate or be ventilated. "Many kindergarten through 12th grade (K-12) schools in the United States do not have good ventilation. This is a longstanding problem with demonstrably negative effects on student learning. We can and should act to fix this to ensure good indoor air quality for all students, educators, and school staff. During the COVID-19 pandemic, it is even more important that ventilation problems in K-12 schools be addressed now. Along with other mitigation measures, improvements in ventilation in K-12 schools can decrease the risk of SARS-CoV-2 spread.
In this report, we consider the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on children, families, and educators; review the evidence that improvements in ventilation reduces risks of disease transmission; and summarize current ventilation guidelines. While ventilation improvements may often be perceived as a complicated and expensive investment, we demonstrate in a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing ventilation with enhanced (“deep”) cleaning that ventilation improvements are a cost-effective public health measure. As new, potentially more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2 continue to emerge, broad improvements in indoor air quality are important for reducing transmission. Improvements to ventilation are a good use of the COVID-19 relief funds provided to K-12 schools.
A broad conclusion of this research is that the benefits to investing in healthy air in schools have the potential to outlast the COVID-19 pandemic. Improved ventilation may give children and school staff healthier indoor air quality for decades in the future, providing a healthier environment for nonpandemic times and potentially reducing risks in future infectious disease outbreaks."
Source: https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/school-ventilation
Source:
Commentary: Proper ventilation will not only make schools safer to reopen, but will also confer many other health benefits, like reducing the spread of other airborne diseases like flu and the common cold, reducing allergens, and keeping contaminated air out of schools.
If you're a parent, ask your school system what they've done to improve ventilation.
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Delta will eventually acquire full vaccine resistance, and probably sooner than we think. "mRNA-based vaccines provide effective protection against most common SARS-CoV-2 variants. However, identifying likely breakthrough variants is critical for future vaccine development. Here, we found that the Delta variant completely escaped from anti-N-terminal domain (NTD) neutralizing antibodies, while increasing responsiveness to anti-NTD infectivity-enhancing antibodies. Although Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2-immune sera neutralized the Delta variant, when four common mutations were introduced into the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the Delta variant (Delta 4+), some BNT162b2-immune sera lost neutralizing activity and enhanced the infectivity. Unique mutations in the Delta NTD were involved in the enhanced infectivity by the BNT162b2-immune sera. Sera of mice immunized by Delta spike, but not wild-type spike, consistently neutralized the Delta 4+ variant without enhancing infectivity. Given the fact that a Delta variant with three similar RBD mutations has already emerged according to the GISAID database, it is necessary to develop vaccines that protect against such complete breakthrough variants.
SARS-CoV-2 has acquired a number of mutations to date, which have arisen within infected individuals. Therefore, new variants are likely to emerge more frequently in situations where many people are infected. Because the Delta variant is spreading so explosively, it has already acquired numerous additional mutations in the spike protein coding region, suggesting that the Delta variant will continue to acquire further mutations.
A third round of booster immunization with the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is currently under consideration. Our data suggest that repeated immunization with the wild-type spike may not be effective in controlling the newly emerging Delta variants. We demonstrated that immunization by Delta spike induces antibodies that neutralize not only the Delta variant but also wild-type and the Delta 4+ variant without enhancing the infectivity."
Source: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.22.457114v1
Commentary: This is a technical argument against existing booster shots: a Delta variant that acquires resistance to the current vaccines will be largely unaffected by booster shots. Better that we get them to as many people as possible now to stem new infections while vaccine manufacturers built a Delta-specific booster.
The fact that new Delta-derived variants are already showing up with these enhanced mutations is a problem, a BIG problem. Why? If they can evade vaccines, they can also evade natural immunity, especially to anyone who had COVID-19 in the first year of the pandemic, before all these new variants really cropped up.
Keep a close eye on variants emerging. A new variant that can reinfect and evade vaccines isn't far off because we have so, so many people currently being infected. Mask up, and stay masked.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
3. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. If you received an adenovirus vaccine (J&J/AstraZeneca), consider getting an mRNA single shot booster (Pfizer/Moderna) if permitted.
4. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home.
5. Stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
6. Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemic gives another crazy plot twist to the economy.
7. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
8. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
9. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
10. If you think you may have been exposed to COVID-19, purchase a rapid antigen test. This will detect COVID-19 only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. https://amzn.to/3fLAoor
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19.
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.