Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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ICUs are filling up. "Alarming rise in #COVID19 cases hospitalizations in #Houston, also #Dallas #Austin getting really bad. I don't see how the Governor avoids a stay-at-home or some dialing back in the #Texas Triangle metro areas. Our ICUs can't handle the surge, this won't turn around on its own"
Source:
Commentary: Stay home. If you're in a place with spiking cases, consider everyone high risk and avoid leaving home unless necessary. States like Arizona are now in the range of doubling times of 12 days or less - a marked departure from where they were two weeks ago. 5 US states have doubling times of 20 days or less - the virus is striking hard in places where precautions are being ignored.
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The dexamethasone trial study data is available. "In patients hospitalized with COVID-19, dexamethasone reduced 28-day mortality among those receiving invasive mechanical ventilation or oxygen at randomization, but not among patients not receiving respiratory support."
Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20137273v1
"The dexamethosone trial #RECOVERY preprint just published. Give credit for fast work, as promised, by these @UniofOxford researchers. No changes from benefit in press release a wk ago. Potential of harm in the no oxygen subgroup noted https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20137273v1 via @cshperspectives"
Source:
Commentary: The warning is especially important: if you're not in the group of people severely ill, DO NOT TAKE DEXAMETHASONE. It may be harmful.
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The first volunteer for a COVID-19 vaccine in the UK has received the candidate vaccine. "The clinical team, who delivered a small dose of the vaccine to the participant at a West London facility, are closely monitoring the participant and report they are in good health, with no safety concerns.
The volunteer has asked to remain anonymous.
Imperial College London’s vaccine candidate is being developed and trialled thanks to more than £41 million in funding from the UK government and a further £5 million in philanthropic donations.
The trials are the first test of a new self-amplifying RNA (saRNA) technology, which has the potential to revolutionise vaccine development and enable scientists to respond more quickly to emerging diseases."
Source: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/198533/first-volunteer-receives-imperial-covid19-vaccine/
Commentary: This is important progress in our fight. While we're a long way away from a generally available vaccine, the fact that we're four months into a pandemic and we have a candidate for human testing is nothing short of amazing. It goes to prove that when we, as a species, band together and focus on a common goal, there isn't much that can stop us.
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Don't use public restrooms if you can avoid it. "And a new study underscores the potential risk, showing how flushing a toilet can send plumes of germs into the air. While the World Health Organization has said the risk of contracting Covid-19 from fecal matter appears to be low, it noted studies that have suggested the Covid-19 virus can be excreted in feces.
"If you don't have to use the public restroom, don't," said microbiologist Ali Nouri, president of the Federation of American Scientists. "That's the first thing you need to know."
Like Balaban, Nouri also took a recent trip by car, a three-hour drive over the weekend. He avoided stopping to use the bathroom and put a diaper on his 4-year-old. But as Americans adapt to the ongoing pandemic, he knows that skipping public toilets altogether isn't going to be possible."
Source: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/23/health/public-restrooms-safety-coronavirus-pandemic-wellness/index.html
Commentary: We've been looking at this for months, with computational modeling of particles and known issues with feces since the infection hit Hong Kong in February. If you do not have a mask that's N95 or better (P100 is preferable), avoid the use of public restrooms. If you do have to use a public restroom, wash immediately, keep your hands away from your face, then shower and wash your clothes normally in soap and water as soon as you reach your home.
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Get a flu vaccine. "The US government’s top infectious disease experts will warn Congress on Tuesday about the “tremendous burden” which could face hospitals in the fall and winter, as coronavirus cases continue to rise in about half the states and political polarization competes for attention with public health recommendations.
Dr Anthony Fauci returns to Capitol Hill at a fraught moment in the nation’s pandemic response, and will testify before a House committee, along with the heads of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration and a top official at the Department of Health and Human Services.
In a prepared statement, the experts said it is unclear how long the Covid-19 outbreak will last, but they expect it to continue “for some time.” They said it is also unclear what will happen if the outbreak collides with the flu season, but it could again burden the country’s healthcare system.
“If there is Covid-19 and flu activity at the same time, this could place a tremendous burden on the healthcare system related to bed occupancy, laboratory testing needs, personal protective equipment and health care worker safety,” the statement said.
“In the context of likely ongoing Covid-19 activity, getting a flu vaccine is more important now that ever.”"
Source: https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/23/anthony-fauci-covid-19-statement-house-hearing
Source: https://docs.house.gov/meetings/IF/IF00/20200623/110829/HHRG-116-IF00-20200623-SD003.pdf
Commentary: A flu vaccine will be the only thing standing between you and a double dose of the infectious viruses this fall and winter. Whether it's by needle or nasal inhaler, get one. Consider reaching out to your elected officials to make sure they're demanding enough be supplied.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason. Consider also spraying the bottoms of your shoes with a general disinfectant (alcohol/bleach/peroxide) when you return home. Remember that cleaners are never to be ingested.
2. Wear gloves and a mask when out of your home. Consider wearing a face shield if you can't breathe at all through a mask.
3. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters. Avoid indoor places as much as you can.
4. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
5. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.