Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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A great, technical read on how SARS-CoV-2 attacks the body. It's a bizarre creature. "SARS-CoV-2, however, uniquely blocks one cellular defense but activates the other, he and his colleagues reported in a study published last week in Cell. They studied healthy human lung cells growing in lab dishes, ferrets (which the virus infects easily), and lung cells from Covid-19 patients. In all three, they found that within three days of infection, the virus induces cells’ call-for-reinforcement genes to produce cytokines. But it blocks their call-to-arms genes — the interferons that dampen the virus’ replication. The result is essentially no brakes on the virus’s replication, but a storm of inflammatory molecules in the lungs, which is what tenOever calls an “unique” and “aberrant” consequence of how SARS-CoV-2 manipulates the genome of its target. In fact, the Icahn School team found no interferons in the lung cells of Covid-19 patients. Without interferons, tenOever said, “there is nothing to stop the virus from replicating and festering in the lungs forever.” That causes lung cells to emit even more “call-for-reinforcement” genes, summoning more and more immune cells. Now the lungs have macrophages and neutrophils and other immune cells “everywhere,” tenOever said, causing such runaway inflammation “that you start having inflammation that induces more inflammation.”"
Source: https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/21/coronavirus-hijacks-cells-in-unique-ways/
As I find myself saying almost daily, there's still so much to learn about this virus. It's largely been successful; it replicates easily and spreads widely. But we're seeing new capabilities in this that we've not seen before - and that's something we'll need to keep an eye on as a civilization, as a human race, because future viruses may have SARS-CoV-2 capabilities combined with a much deadlier payload.
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Travel will continue to change. "For one, travelers should expect more distance between passengers at security checkpoints. Passengers will also have to place their electronic or paper boarding passes on readers themselves, instead of handing them over to TSA agents. The TSA is also urging travelers to wear face masks, which major airlines now require travelers to wear on board. The agency says travelers should remove food from bags and put items like belts, wallets, keys and phones into their carry-on bags to "instead of into the bins to reduce touch-points during the screening process."
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/coronavirus-hold-onto-your-boarding-pass-tsa-changes-screening.html
No way to sugar coat it. Travel is going to suck from now on. Until a vaccine is broadly available and deployed, expect travel to be... well, awful. Plan for trips to take much longer, and be more inconvenient. If possible and practical, consider things like driving rather than flying - if it takes, for example, 4 hours to drive from Boston to New York, the flight itself may be 45 minutes, but the 4 hours you'll need at the airport to go through enhanced pandemic screening will negate the flying advantage.
Stay close to home, go virtual for as much as possible, and stay away from large indoor spaces... like airports and mass transit.
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Jobless claims came in at 2.44 million, for a pandemic total of 38.6 million. ""Net, net, the states may be opening back up, but the labor market is still closed for millions across America and the loss of the income and spending of those without jobs will be a considerable headwind for this economic recovery," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. Though the total national numbers are on the decline, the unemployment numbers remain staggering and well beyond anything the U.S. has seen before. Along with the 25 million unemployed as indicated by the continuing claims, there are another 2.23 million claims under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and 167,727 under the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment program."
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html
When you look at the numbers, this is astonishing. The US labor force in January 2020 was 164.6 million people, with 5.79 million unemployed for a total force of 170.4 people eligible to work. Since the pandemic began, 38.6 million people unemployed represents 22.6% of the entire labor force. In total, we're at 26% unemployment (combining the 5.79 million previously unemployed with the 38.6 million new claims). The Great Depression peaked in 1933 at 24.9% unemployment. That gives you a sense of the scope and scale of this pandemic and its impact on society.
The good news is that new unemployment claims are slowing down. They're still astonishingly high, 10x what they used to be on a weekly basis, but fewer jobs lost is better in general.
What should we be doing? Continuing to help and share opportunities with our respective networks.
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Non-pharmaceutical interventions can do wonders to slow the pandemic, if we're willing to do the work. "Policies can also support people in protecting themselves. Essential workers earn low hourly wages and cannot afford to miss a shift, even if they have symptoms. “The only way to prevent them from going to work is to give them paid sick leave,” Ray says. The same goes for a minimum living wage, hazard pay, universal health care, stipends for people who are self-isolating, debt moratoriums, rent freezes, food assistance, and services to connect people with existing support."
Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/patchwork-pandemic-states-reopening-inequalities/611866/
The whole article is an excellent, if depressing read.
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FEMA has released operational guidelines for emergency responders in hurricane season with a pandemic going on. "While COVID-19 morbidity and mortality persist, FEMA will generally minimize the number of personnel deploying to disaster-impacted areas and minimize the number of new field deployments by using personnel already deployed to the impacted region, including FEMA Integration Team (FIT) members or other FEMA personnel already working at EOCs, deploying locally-available personnel, and leveraging remote disaster support. FEMA Regional Administrators, in partnership with FEMA Headquarters (HQ), will evaluate risk in their regions and determine the most appropriate approach to deployments while considering the guidance and direction of public health officials and the factors established in the White House Guidelines."
Source: https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1589997234798-adb5ce5cb98a7a89e3e1800becf0eb65/2020_Hurricane_Pandemic_Plan.pdf
This one's really important. FEMA is essentially saying that to minimize pandemic infection potential, they will be minimizing their personnel responses to disasters. If you or anyone you know lives in a hurricane-prone area, preparedness is more important than ever this year. Shelters may not be able to accommodate as many people, and those they do will be hotbeds of infectious potential. Make sure you have all your supplies ready and you are prepared to relocate in case of emergency.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason. Consider also spraying the bottoms of your shoes with a general disinfectant (alcohol/bleach/peroxide) when you return home. Remember that cleaners are never to be ingested.
2. Wear gloves and a mask when out of your home. Consider wearing a face shield.
3. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters.
4. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
5. Donate any PPE you can. https://getusppe.org/give/
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.