Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from a qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific medical situation over advice from people on the Internet.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
---
""Perfect attendance" should be a thing of the past. When you don't feel well, stay home instead of going to work or school and possibly spreading an infection to those around you. I hope Covid has taught us our actions affect others. And that everyone should have paid sick leave."
Source:
Commentary: We honestly need to rethink all these attitudes. In more progressive companies and places, that's been on the table for a while; it's called ROWE - results only work environment. Wherever and however you work best, as long as you get your job done - whether it's learning in school or working in the workplace - you should be able to do it with maximum flexibility and an eye towards productivity.
---
Risk of hospitalizaiton is 16x higher for the unvaccinated. "COVID-NET is a population-based surveillance system that collects data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations among children and adults through a network of over 250 acute-care hospitals in 14 states. Additional data on vaccination status for individual cases are collected and available from COVID-NET catchment areas in 12 of the 14 states.
This page displays several figures showing weekly, population-based rates of COVID-19-associated hospitalizations among people who were fully vaccinated, with or without additional or booster doses, and those unvaccinated, according to their age group. Figures show hospitalization rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated people according to their week of hospital admission. Hospitalization rates for all adults ages 18 years and older are adjusted to reflect the age structure of the entire COVID-NET population. Hospitalization rates for specific age groups are not adjusted.
These data were posted on January 20, 2022 and reflect hospitalizations through December 25, 2021. COVID-NET hospitalizations data are preliminary and subject to change as more data become available. Data will be updated monthly."
Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#covidnet-hospitalizations-vaccination
Commentary: It's unsurprising to see such high numbers for the unvaccinated. Even with Omicron being slightly less severe than Delta (but more severe than the 2020 original strain), its rapid spread means a lot of illness and death. Stay masked up.
---
Omicron's child is spreading in Denmark, but no conclusions yet about whether it's more transmissible. "The UK Health Security Agency has designated the Omicron variant sub-lineage, known as BA.2, as a variant under investigation - but current case rates are very low.
Just 53 sequences had been identified in the UK by 10 January, according to the UKHSA, which said it was doing further analysis.
Initial studies from Denmark - where it's quickly taken hold and now makes up around half of Omicron cases - show no difference in hospitalisations between 'original' Omicron and BA.2."
Source: https://news.sky.com/story/amp/omicron-sub-lineage-ba-2-designated-as-covid-variant-under-investigation-says-ukhsa-12521718
Commentary: What stops Omicron? Masks and vaccines, of course - even its children.
---
Do your rapid antigen tests with the nasal swab - don't skip that part! "In 731 persons seeking COVID-19 testing at a walk-up San Francisco community site in January 2022, simultaneous nasal rapid antigen testing (BinaxNOW™) and RT-PCR testing was performed. There were 296 (40.5%) positive tests by RT-PCR; 98.5% of a random sample (N=67) were the omicron variant. Sensitivity of a single antigen test was 95.2% (95% CI 92-98%); 82.1% (95% CI 77-87%) and 65.2% (95% CI 60-71%) for Ct threshold of < 30, < 35 and no threshold, respectively. We also compared BinaxNOW™ to RT-PCR from oral cheek swabs to nasal swabs (N=75); oral cheek specimen was significantly less sensitive than nasal swab. A single BinaxNOW™ oral cheek rapid antigen test failed to detect 91% (20 of 22) of specimens that were BinaxNOW™ positive from the standard nasal sampling. In a separate direct comparison of BinaxNOW™ between specimens collected from nasal or throat (tonsillar) swab (N=115), sensitivity was 97.7% for nasal and 48.8% for throat swabs that were PCR-positive on nasal swab with a Ct threshold < 30. Among persons with either a nasal or throat RT-PCR positive swab with Ct<30, BinaxNOW™ sensitivity was 85.7% for nasal and 89.8% for nasal plus throat swabs. BinaxNOW continues to be a very useful diagnostic during the omicron surge; oral (throat or cheek swab) should not replace nasal swabs due to significantly reduced sensitivity compared to nasal. As currently recommended, repeat testing should be done for high-risk persons with an initial negative antigen test result."
Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.08.22268954v4
Commentary: Remember these rules for rapid tests:
1. Do the test at room temperature.
2. Swab the nasal cavity thoroughly according to the manufacturer's directions first.
3. Swab the back of the throat second.
4. Follow the exact test procedures - ESPECIALLY the timer!
---
A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
3. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen, including boosters. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. If you received an adenovirus vaccine (J&J/AstraZeneca), consider getting an mRNA single shot booster (Pfizer/Moderna) if available. If it's available, choose Moderna as your first choice for both vaccine and booster, Pfizer as your second choice. However, remember than any vaccine is better than no vaccine.
4. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home.
5. Stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
6. Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemic gives another crazy plot twist to the economy.
7. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
8. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
9. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
10. If you think you may have been exposed to COVID-19, purchase a rapid antigen test. This will detect COVID-19 only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. https://amzn.to/3fLAoor
---
Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
---
Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19.
---
A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.