Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from a qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific medical situation over advice from people on the Internet.
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"I've worked on infectious disease outbreaks for 30 years. I've NEVER seen anything like the speed of Omicron. It's as infectious as measles spreading in a non-immune population, with a much shorter incubation time therefore much faster doubling time. Hope it's a lot less severe."
Source:
Commentary: Omicron went from 3% of USA cases two weeks ago to 73% of USA cases this week. That is astonishingly fast growth.
Unfortunately, there is no evidence that Omicron is less severe than its predecessors.
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In Texas. "After warnings of an omicron surge over the holidays, Harris County has reported its first death caused by the omicron variant of COVID-19. It's also the first known omicron death reported nationwide.
County Judge Lina Hidalgo made the announcement during an afternoon news conference.
"My phone was ringing, I'm sure you guys noticed, and it was our public health director telling me we just had our first omicron-related death," she said.
According to Hidalgo, the patient was a man in his 50s who was not vaccinated and had an underlying health condition. He lived in Precinct 2.
"I know, for folks in Harris County, this feels like whiplash," Hidalgo said. "It follows a downward trend in hospitalizations and cases, only to see things trend back up, and it is so frustrating."
Houston Methodist said Monday that 82% of its new cases are omicron after just three weeks of testing for it. It took delta three months to reach that point.
Texas Children's is also seeing hospitalizations and cases doubling and tripling over the last week.
“An upward trajectory that is steeper than anything we’ve seen previously during this pandemic," Dr. Jim Versalovic with Texas Children's Hospital said.
"Omicron is spreading incredibly quickly. First, we know that an increasing number of cases in Harris county are related to omicron," Hidalgo said. "It’s more transmissible. The amount of time it takes for the number of omicron cases to double has been very worrisome. Early data shows its doubling in two to three days, according to the CDC. Just to give a point of comparison, the delta variant doubles every eleven days."
Like the delta variant, there have been breakthrough cases of omicron but Hidalgo said those vaccinated and boosted are much less likely to end up in the hospital."
Source: https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/harris-county-first-omicron-death-hidalgo/285-a251bc25-d2b8-4419-9058-bb2920742855
Commentary: The key point here is the doubling time. Omicron doubles in 2-3 days; Delta in 11 days. When it comes to exponential growth, this is a massive problem because it means our systems - like hospitals - cannot keep up.
Keep yourself safe over the holidays. Chances are in the next 4-6 weeks, hospital space will be unavailable as healthcare systems around the world struggle to keep up with Omicron.
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"Something people don't realize is how phenomenally screwed we'd be if it weren't for high vaccination rates among the vulnerable.
Take Massachusetts. Our hospitals are at 87% capacity.
If the population were not highly vaxxed, Omicron would ALREADY have overwhelmed the system.
As it stands, even 5000 new cases per day will not overwhelm the hospitals, if recent rates (i.e. the percent of new infections needing hospitalization) hold up.
But if we go over 10,500 cases for a week or two, we'd be in big, big trouble and wouldn't be able to care for all."
Source:
Commentary: In places where vaccination rates are lower, we're going to see a lot of unnecessary misery and loss of life in the next four to six weeks. We should be prepared for it.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
3. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen, including boosters. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. If you received an adenovirus vaccine (J&J/AstraZeneca), consider getting an mRNA single shot booster (Pfizer/Moderna) if available. If it's available, choose Moderna as your first choice for both vaccine and booster, Pfizer as your second choice. However, remember than any vaccine is better than no vaccine.
4. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home.
5. Stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
6. Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemic gives another crazy plot twist to the economy.
7. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
8. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
9. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
10. If you think you may have been exposed to COVID-19, purchase a rapid antigen test. This will detect COVID-19 only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. https://amzn.to/3fLAoor
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19.
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.