Lunchtime Pandemic Reading, 21-April-2020
Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
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An excellent investigation by Krebs on Security on an astroturfing campaign (fake grassroots campaign). "KrebsOnSecurity began this research after reading a fascinating Reddit thread over the weekend on several “reopen” sites that seemed to be engaged in astroturfing, which involves masking the sponsors of a message or organization to make it appear as though it originates from and is supported by grassroots participants."
Source: https://krebsonsecurity.com/2020/04/whos-behind-the-reopen-domain-surge/
Misinformation is just as great an enemy during the pandemic as the actual virus. Do your homework to ensure that the sources you're sharing are valid.
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Dr. Emma Hodcroft has an excellent Twitter thread on what scientists mean when they say they don't know. "When a scientist says "This paper doesn't show this" or "We don't have enough evidence to say" They are not saying it's wrong. Or that it will never be shown. They are saying we all need to be really careful how we interpret this."
Source:
Read the whole thread; it's worthwhile. We are all profoundly uncomfortable with "don't know", especially in a media environment looking for 10 second sound bites and quick answers. The reality of science is that it's a long, arduous path filled with uncertainty, and even things we take for granted may not be true or we may not have enough information for. Again - do your homework, but also interpret news correctly, especially from scientific sources.
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Speaking of which, antibody testing alone will not be enough to reopen, according to Dr. Angela Rasmussen. "Rather than issuing documents confirming immune status, we should instead “re-open” society cautiously, with widespread virus and serology testing to accurately identify and isolate infected cases rapidly, with immediate contact tracing to safely quarantine and monitor those at exposure risk. Broad serosurveillance must be coupled with functional assays for neutralization activity to begin assessing how protective antibodies might actually be against SARS-CoV-2 infection. To understand how long immunity lasts, we should study antibodies, as well as the functional capabilities of other components of the larger immune system, such as T cells, in recovered COVID-19 patients over time. "
Source: https://leapsmag.com/antibody-testing-alone-is-not-the-key-to-re-opening-america/
We still don't know enough about SARS-CoV-2 to make a determination about whether you're fully immune if you've had it.
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The first COVID-19 testing at home kit has been certified by the FDA for emergency usage.
Source: “Throughout this pandemic we have been facilitating test development to ensure patients access to accurate diagnostics, which includes supporting the development of reliable and accurate at-home sample collection options,” said FDA Commissioner Stephen M. Hahn, M.D. “The FDA’s around-the-clock work since this outbreak began has resulted in the authorization of more than 50 diagnostic tests and engagement with over 350 test developers. Specifically, for tests that include home sample collection, we worked with LabCorp to ensure the data demonstrated from at-home patient sample collection is as safe and accurate as sample collection at a doctor’s office, hospital or other testing site. With this action, there is now a convenient and reliable option for patient sample collection from the comfort and safety of their home.”
Source: https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-first-test-patient-home-sample-collection
Assuming the test can get all the reagents it needs, this is a great step forward in the battle against COVID-19. At-home testing reduces risk of healthcare worker exposures and could potentially scale to much greater, more broad testing.
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A German report cites that COVID-19 is inflicting permanent lung damage. "He heads the emergency department in the hospital and is the responsible crisis coordinator for Covid 19 patients. In the clinic, doctors have treated dozens of coronavirus sufferers in recent weeks, from symptom-free spreaders to intensive care patients on the heart-lung machine. Among them were six active divers, all of whom did not have to be treated in hospital, but cured themselves in home quarantines. All of them were not severe cases, their illnesses were five to six weeks ago and they are considered to have recovered. But they can no longer dive. "The damage to the lungs is irreversible," said Hartig in an interview with the APA. "This is shocking, we don't understand what's going on here. They are probably lifelong patients, so it doesn't matter whether they dive again or not," said the doctor. The bad news was made clear by lung CTs. "They didn't get any better at all in imaging," said Hartig. "As an emergency doctor with 20 years of experience, you swallow when you see something like this in a 40-year-old patient." In the control after several weeks, two patients showed significant oxygen deficiency when under stress as a typical sign of persistent lung shunt. In two, the bronchi were still very excitable when under stress, as in asthmatics. Four out of the six divers still showed impressive lung changes on the control CT. "I even called on the X-ray to see if they had swapped the pictures because a healthy patient was sitting in front of us," said Hartig. "When they saw their own pictures, it was shocking for them," said the doctor. "You have to check regularly with such lung damage."
Source: https://www.rainews.it/tgr/tagesschau/articoli/2020/04/tag-Coronavirus-Lungeschaden-Forschung-Uniklinik-Innsbruck-6708e11e-28dc-4843-a760-e7f926ace61c.html
(in German, requires Google Translate)
The immediate takeaway for anyone who performs any sport that requires substantial lung capacity (such as SCUBA diving) that contracts COVID-19 should be fully checked out by a qualified medical professional before resuming their sport. More broadly, COVID-19 may not have a high fatality rate, but it could substantially impact millions of lives, worsening their overall quality of life. If you have pre-existing conditions like asthma, there's a good chance contracting COVID-19 could make it much worse.
Stay home, stay safe.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason. Consider also spraying the bottoms of your shoes with a general disinfectant (alcohol/bleach/peroxide) when you return home.
2. Wear gloves and a mask when out of your home.
3. Stay home as much as possible.
4. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
5. Donate any PPE you can. https://getusppe.org/give/
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Common myths debunked. There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9