Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crises and how to manage them. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from a qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific medical situation over advice from people on the Internet.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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Commentary: I am back from another week on the road, at a much larger conference. I followed the same precautions I did at the previous week's conference and now, 5 days after the event ended, I am still testing negative. Why? I wore a mask any time I was around other people indoors. That's it. That simple. The P100 mask I wear is incredibly effective at stopping airborne anything - smoke, viruses, bacteria, mold, spores, dust, tear gas, you name it.
Here's the thing to remember as the world tries to forget COVID ever existed as quickly as possible: wearing the best mask available, properly fitted, means that it really doesn't matter what other people do around you. With a mask like a P100, you can stand in the middle of thousands of people and be safe for a decently long time.
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No, it's not over. "With 400 to 500 Americans still dying every day of Covid-19, President Biden has declared that “the pandemic is over.”
But don’t tell that to people like Debra McCoskey-Reisert, whose mother died in early August. Or Ben HsuBorger, who has chronic fatigue syndrome, a condition often brought on by viruses, including the coronavirus. Or Peter W. Goodman, whose wife died on Aug. 17.
“It’s not over for me,” said a tearful Mr. Goodman, 76, who is retired after working as a journalism professor at Hofstra University on Long Island. Both he and his wife, Debbie, 70, became sick with Covid-19 last month. He recovered. She did not.
The president made the remarks while speaking in an interview that aired on CBS’s “60 Minutes” on Sunday night. By Monday morning, the backlash was in full swing — as patients said the president was being insensitive at best, and some public health experts said his words were at odds with the science.
“We’ve had two million cases reported over the last 28 days, and we know underreporting is substantial,” said Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Minnesota. Covid-19, he said, “continues to be the No. 4 cause of death in the country.”"
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/19/us/politics/biden-covid-pandemic-over.html
Commentary: The reason people think it's over is dramatic under-reporting of data. Rapid antigen tests - which are good and tell you if you're contagious - do not report that data to central authorities. They're not magic. But consumers who take a home test, even if positive, don't report that positivity to the government, and thus everyone thinks COVID is over because official test numbers are low.
However, let's look at three pieces of data. First, wastewater monitoring is for now still in place, and we see wastewater numbers at very high levels now, even as the "official counts" are unusually low.
Second, Walgreens keeps track of positivity rates for tests. Positive rates nationally in the USA are at 27.6%. Recall that the standard to aim for, in terms of being able to detect and mitigate a pandemic, is a 5% positivity rate. We're dramatically undercounting.
Third, about 3,000 people - one 9/11 - are dying of COVID every week. That's not the definition of over. We properly and correctly honor the lives of those lost on 9/11, 21 years later. We should be taking additional steps to stop a new 9/11 every week with a disease that is now preventable through vaccines, masks, and ventilation.
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BA.2 gives some protection against BA.4/BA.5. "BNT162b2-vaccinated individuals after Omicron BA.1 breakthrough infection have strong serum neutralizing activity against Omicron BA.1, BA.2, and previous SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs), yet less against the highly contagious Omicron sublineages BA.4 and BA.5 that have displaced previous variants. As the latter sublineages are derived from Omicron BA.2, we characterized serum neutralizing activity of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine triple-immunized individuals who experienced BA.2 breakthrough infection. We demonstrate that sera of these individuals have broadly neutralizing activity against previous VOCs as well as all tested Omicron sublineages, including BA.2 derived variants BA.2.12.1, BA.4/BA.5. Furthermore, applying antibody depletion we showed that neutralization of BA.2 and BA.4/BA.5 sublineages by BA.2 convalescent sera is driven to a significant extent by antibodies targeting the N-terminal domain (NTD) of the spike glycoprotein. However, neutralization by Omicron BA.1 convalescent sera depends exclusively on antibodies targeting the receptor binding domain (RBD). These findings suggest that exposure to Omicron BA.2, in contrast to BA.1 spike glycoprotein, triggers significant NTD specific recall responses in vaccinated individuals and thereby enhances the neutralization of BA.4/BA.5 sublineages. Given the current epidemiology with a predominance of BA.2 derived sublineages like BA.4/BA.5 and rapidly ongoing evolution, these findings helped to inform development of our Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted vaccine."
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciimmunol.ade2283
Commentary: This is good news for folks who had BA.2, especially earlier this year. Now's the time to get a booster with the Omicron antigens, to further bolster your immunity.
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Cool. "Singapore: Chinese researchers have developed a mask that lets users know if they’ve been exposed to COVID-19 or the flu, a development that could help vulnerable populations even as the use of face coverings falls and more nations ease virus restrictions.
A sensor built into a mask was able to detect the COVID-19, H5N1 and H1N1 influenza viruses in the air within 10 minutes and send notifications to a device, according to the study led by six scientists working with Tongji University in Shanghai. The peer-reviewed findings were published in the scientific journal Matter on Monday."
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/chinese-scientists-develop-mask-that-detects-covid-in-the-air-20220920-p5bjeq.html
Commentary: I'd love to see similar sensors as fixed installations. Having a COVID monitor along with a general air quality monitor in places like churches, conference centers, etc. would be super powerful - imagine being in a room and knowing that there was no COVID present?
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. P100 respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too and start around US$40 for a reusable respirator. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
3. Get vaccinated as soon as you're eligible to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen, including boosters. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. For COVID, if you received an adenovirus vaccine (J&J/AstraZeneca), consider getting an mRNA single shot booster (Pfizer/Moderna) if available. If it's available, choose Moderna as your first choice for both vaccine and booster, Pfizer as your second choice. However, remember that any vaccine is better than no vaccine.
4. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home. Sanitize the bottom of your shoes with a simple peroxide spray using ordinary drugstore/supermarket peroxide in a spray bottle. If you've come in close contact with others (rubbing or brushing up against them, hugging, etc.) consider showering and washing your clothes as well.
5. Stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
6. Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemics give another crazy plot twist to the economy, or you know, a global war breaks out.
7. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
8. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
9. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
10. If you think you may have been exposed to COVID-19, purchase several rapid antigen tests and/or acquire them from your healthcare provider or government. This will detect COVID-19 only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. https://amzn.to/3fLAoor
If you think you may have been exposed to monkeypox, contact your healthcare provider about available testing.
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19 or monkeypox. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19 or monkeypox, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19 or monkeypox.
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.