Lunchtime Pandemic Reading, 20-Mar-2020
Lunchtime COVID-19/SARSCoV2 (coronavirus) reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laiety. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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For another valid data source, the European CDC publishes COVID-19 data as well, with daily updates for the entire planet, not just Europe. Add this to your roster of data sources to track.
Source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
It never hurts to have additional confirmatory data sources. The graphs of growth in the ECDC report are the most astonishing to look at; true exponential growth.
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Via CNBC, economists are forecasting record-breaking job losses, especially in April. "When all is said and done, the unemployment rate will be 10.6% and there will be 17.9 million Americans on the unemployment line, or about 12 million more than in February, according to a projection from Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. The current jobless rate is 3.5%, the lowest in more than 50 years."
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/the-upcoming-job-losses-will-be-unlike-anything-the-us-has-ever-seen.html
This would effectively triple unemployment in just a month, and put unemployment back to where it was in 1982.
If you're thinking about changing jobs, do not quit without having a new one lined up, signed on paper. If you're out of work, be as aggressive as reasonable to secure new work before this wave hits. If you're currently employed, tune up your credentials and value proposition, fix up your LinkedIn profile, and be ready for the possibility that you may be furloughed or laid off.
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Via STAT News, what's working at beating back COVID-19: "Singapore also quickly developed a much-needed serology test — a blood test used to look for antibodies in blood that are a sign of previous infection. Getting a handle on how many people have been infected is critical to understanding how deadly this virus really is, experts stress. Authorities in Singapore actually used the serology test in late February to find the source of a cluster of cases in a church group." On South Korea: "“Testing is central because that leads to early detection. It minimizes further spread and it quickly treats those found with the virus,” she said, suggesting early detection and treatment may explain why South Korea’s death rate is lower than other places with large numbers of cases."
Source: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/20/understanding-what-works-how-some-countries-are-beating-back-the-coronavirus/
Test. Isolate. Contain. The United States remains very far behind the leaders, but hopefully other nations around the world are learning from the lessons of those who have gone before us.
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CDC published updated guidelines for self-isolation. The reminder lots forget? Don't share. "Do not share: Do not share dishes, drinking glasses, cups, eating utensils, towels, or bedding with other people in your home."
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/steps-when-sick.html
Stay home. Stay home. Stay home. We cannot afford to have more sick people than absolutely necessary.
Governor Andrew Cuomo is asking New York State residents with medical qualifications to volunteer as part of a reserve corps.
Source:
Governor Cuomo learned the lessons of Italy. Reactivate all your resources.
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CISA (part of Homeland Security) published its guidelines for what constitutes critical infrastructure and emergency employees. "The list of essential workers should be considered by state and local government officials as those with prioritized need for access and re-entry into, out of, and through areas where shelter-in-place, quarantine, cordons, and restricted areas. Different jurisdictions may come to different conclusions as to where essential worker accommodation is warranted based on the prevalence and density of certain infrastructure activity and assets in that area."
Source: https://www.cisa.gov/identifying-critical-infrastructure-during-covid-19
This is a useful list and it shows just how interconnected everything is. If you're connected
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NIH has moved to a phase 1 clinical trial for a potential SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. "A Phase 1 clinical trial evaluating an investigational vaccine designed to protect against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has begun at Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute (KPWHRI) in Seattle. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health, is funding the trial. KPWHRI is part of NIAID’s Infectious Diseases Clinical Research Consortium. The open-label trial will enroll 45 healthy adult volunteers ages 18 to 55 years over approximately 6 weeks. The first participant received the investigational vaccine today."
Source: https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-investigational-vaccine-covid-19-begins
As a reminder, the stages of a clinical trial are:
- Phase 1: does it cause harm?
- Phase 2: does it work at all?
- Phase 3: does it work better than existing solutions?
- Phase 4: retests all the data in phases 1-3.
STAT News reminds us that everything currently in testing or clinical trials is many, many months away from being generally available. For certain, nothing will be available to the general population in 2020.
Source: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/19/an-updated-guide-to-the-coronavirus-drugs-and-vaccines-in-development/
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Washington State is preparing triage plans for dealing with scarce medical resources. "“They look at the criteria — in this case it would likely be age and underlying disease conditions — and then determine that this person, though this person has a chance of survival with a ventilator, does not get one,” Ms. Sauer said. “This is a shift to caring for the population, where you look at the whole population of people who need care and make a determination about who is most likely to survive, and you provide care to them,” she said. “Those that have a less good chance of survival — but still have a chance — you do not provide care to them, which guarantees their death.”"
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-ration-hospitals-seattle-washington.html
Triage is likely to happen in our major outbreak centers. We have to prevent it from happening in the rest of the country.
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A lighter piece from the Seattle Times on which generations are best at social distancing: the oft-overlooked Generation X. "But Gen Xer’s — the latchkey kids of the ’80s and ’90s — are uniquely qualified for social distancing. In their youth, they spent hours alone in their rooms, watching after-school specials, doing homework, making mixtapes for their friends. To this day, they’re perfectly content holed up at home and finding ways to entertain themselves."
Source: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/is-one-generation-better-at-self-quarantining-than-others-gen-x-might-have-a-leg-up/
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands often. Have a bottle of hand sanitizer on your belt, bag, purse, whatever and use it when out and about in public every 15 minutes whether you need it or not.
2. Wash/sanitize before touching any part of your face for any reason.
3. Avoid large crowds. Period. Any group over 25. Stay home as much as practical.
4. Avoid in-person interaction with anyone at risk, without exception. Video call instead of visit.