Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from a qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific medical situation over advice from people on the Internet.
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More data on Omicron BA.2. "BA.2 has an increased growth rate compared to BA.1 in all regions of England where there are sufficient cases present to make an assessment. Whilst growth rates can be overestimates early in the emergence of a variant, the apparent growth advantage is currently substantial.
Analysis from routine contact tracing data indicated higher secondary attack rates amongst contacts of BA.2 cases in households (13.4%; 95% CI: 10.7%-16.8%) than those for contacts of other Omicron cases (10.3%; 95% CI: 10.1%-10.4%) in the period 27 December 2021 to 11 January 2022. These secondary attack rates are not adjusted for vaccination status and reflect overall growth advantage rather than transmissibility.
The growth rate is estimated by logistic regression of the number of genomes sampled with the BA.1 and VUI-22JAN-01 (BA.2) lineages on time of sample collection. Sample inclusion criteria are: 1) a non-traveller as determined by matching each case against passenger locator forms and managed quarantine service test codes, and 2) collected from Pillar 2 testing. To adjust for geographic variation in case growth rates, VUI-22JAN-01 (BA.2) growth rates were estimated relative to a geographically matched sample of BA.1 genomes. A logistic growth rate of zero would indicate no difference in growth rates between BA.1 and VUI-22JAN-01 (BA.2). Data sampled between 27 December 2021 and 19 January 2022 were included. The estimated and empirical proportion of genomes from the VUI-22JAN-01 (BA.2) lineage are shown in Figure 10. The median growth rate in the most recent 7-day period is +126% per week. The analysis was repeated on data from each region of England with at least 40 BA.2 genomes and is shown in Figure 11. Current logistic growth rates range from 53% to 159% per week."
Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1050999/Technical-Briefing-35-28January2022.pdf
Commentary: Omicron BA.2 has substantial transmissibility advantages. Anyone who hasn't caught COVID will likely do so in the coming weeks as it becomes the dominant strain.
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SARS-CoV-2 and your brain. "Major cell entry factors of SARS-CoV-2 are present in neurons; however, the neurotropism of SARS-CoV-2 and the phenotypes of infected neurons are still unclear. Acute neurological disorders occur in many patients, and one-third of COVID-19 survivors suffer from brain diseases. Here, we show that SARS-CoV-2 invades the brains of five patients with COVID-19 and Alzheimers, autism, frontotemporal dementia or no underlying condition by infecting neurons and other cells in the cortex. SARS-CoV-2 induces or enhances Alzheimers-like neuropathology with manifestations of beta-amyloid aggregation and plaque formation, tauopathy, neuroinflammation and cell death. SARS-CoV-2 infects mature but not immature neurons derived from inducible pluripotent stem cells from healthy and Alzheimers individuals through its receptor ACE2 and facilitator neuropilin-1. SARS-CoV-2 triggers Alzheimers-like gene programs in healthy neurons and exacerbates Alzheimers neuropathology. A gene signature defined as an Alzheimers infectious etiology is identified through SARS-CoV-2 infection, and silencing the top three downregulated genes in human primary neurons recapitulates the neurodegenerative phenotypes of SARS-CoV-2. Thus, SARS-CoV-2 invades the brain and activates an Alzheimers-like program."
Source: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.31.478476v1
Commentary: There's no way to know from such a small study (and it's a pre-print, so caveat lector) how prevalent this neurological damage is, but the fact that it occurs at all is alarming. This is why "let it rip" and other foolishness like intentionally catching COVID-19 is the height of stupidity. WE DO NOT KNOW THE LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES OF THIS DISEASE. It clearly can do a lot of things once inside the body, so we should continue making efforts to keep it out of us. Stay masked.
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Vaccines are safe for children. "Out of 8 million vaccine doses, there have been only 11 verified VAERs reports of myocarditis among children ages 5–11. It’s important to note that people who are infected with COVID-19 have 16 times the risk of myocarditis compared to those who are vaccinated. Moreover, in instances of myocarditis from COVID-19 after vaccination, the cases were much less severe than those after infection."
Source: https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2022/even-more-safety-and-effectiveness-data-for-covid-19-vaccines-for-children
Commentary: The odds of a child contracting any kind of myocarditis from a COVID-19 are roughly those of a lottery winning. Get your kids vaccinated and boosted.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
3. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen, including boosters. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. If you received an adenovirus vaccine (J&J/AstraZeneca), consider getting an mRNA single shot booster (Pfizer/Moderna) if available. If it's available, choose Moderna as your first choice for both vaccine and booster, Pfizer as your second choice. However, remember than any vaccine is better than no vaccine.
4. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home.
5. Stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
6. Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemic gives another crazy plot twist to the economy.
7. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
8. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
9. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
10. If you think you may have been exposed to COVID-19, purchase a rapid antigen test. This will detect COVID-19 only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. https://amzn.to/3fLAoor
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19.
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.