Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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COVID 19 US vs. EU. Reminder that the US population is 330 million, the EU is 440 million.
Source:
Commentary: It should be abundantly clear how things are going. 23,000 new cases a day in the US.
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Blood type may have a relationship to COVID-19 severity. "We detected cross-replicating associations with rs11385942 at locus 3p21.31 and with rs657152 at locus 9q34.2, which were significant at the genomewide level (P<5×10−8) in the meta-analysis of the two case–control panels (odds ratio, 1.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48 to 2.11; P=1.15×10−10; and odds ratio, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.20 to 1.47; P=4.95×10−8, respectively). At locus 3p21.31, the association signal spanned the genes SLC6A20, LZTFL1, CCR9, FYCO1, CXCR6 and XCR1. The association signal at locus 9q34.2 coincided with the ABO blood group locus; in this cohort, a blood-group–specific analysis showed a higher risk in blood group A than in other blood groups (odds ratio, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.20 to 1.75; P=1.48×10−4) and a protective effect in blood group O as compared with other blood groups (odds ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.79; P=1.06×10−5)."
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2020283
Commentary: Blood type O may be less impacted by COVID-19; blood type A may be more impacted. If you're not already wearing masks, you should be.
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Wastewater analysis shows SARS-CoV-2 may have been in italy as early as December. "The coronavirus was present in two large Italian cities in December, more than two months before the first case was detected, a national health institute study of waste water has found.
That suggests the virus appeared in Italy around the same time it was first reported in China.
Researchers discovered genetic traces of Sars-CoV-2 -- as the virus is officially known -- in samples of waste water collected in Milan and Turin at the end of last year, and Bologna in January, the ISS institute said in a statement seen by AFP on Friday.
Italy's first known native case was discovered mid-February."
Source: https://news.yahoo.com/virus-already-italy-december-waste-water-study-finds-091612239.html
Commentary: What's really important about this news isn't the virus itself, it's the brilliant idea of using wastewater analysis to test for its presence. We have enough trouble in the United States getting people to wear masks, much less getting tested for the virus. But if we could marshal our resources to start testing wastewater systems - perhaps even down to the household - we could track the virus much more carefully. At the very least, we should be able to track its presence in municipal systems.
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Dr. Fauci on vaccines and current conditions. "Dr. Anthony Fauci, the leading infectious disease expert on the White House coronavirus task force, pledged on Thursday to publicly oppose any effort by the Trump administration to rush an announcement of a COVID-19 vaccine by the November election unless the medicine has been proven “safe and scientifically sound.”
In an interview with McClatchy, Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said he disapproved of the use of the term “Operation Warp Speed” – the name of the federal vaccine development project – because it incorrectly implies that critical scientific benchmarks for safety and effectiveness might be sidestepped in a rushed government effort to achieve a vaccine.
And he offered a different view from an op-ed published this week by Vice President Mike Pence, the head of the coronavirus task force, which dismissed concerns over an increase in coronavirus cases in several U.S. states as “overblown.”
“When I see an increase in cases that is not fully explainable in my mind, I get concerned,” Fauci said when asked about the Pence statement. “I get concerned by an increase in cases even when it is explainable, because if you look at the curve of cases in the United States, and look at the total country, that is not a sharp decline by any means.”
President Donald Trump has pushed the Department of Health and Human Services to expedite its work on a vaccine, already set against the unprecedented timetable of achieving one by the end of the year, so that the public can glimpse an end to the pandemic ahead of the November presidential vote.
“Take that to the bank,” Fauci said when asked by McClatchy whether he would oppose any administration effort to announce a vaccine by November if it is not ready. “There is no chance in the world that I’m going to be forced into agreeing to something that I don’t think is safe and scientifically sound. I’ll guarantee you that.”"
Source: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/coronavirus/article243633232.html
Commentary: In Fauci we trust - assuming he remains employed by the current administration.
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If we want to protect essential workers, especially those who are minorities, we need to do better about educating. "In this survey study, the largest differences in coronavirus disease 2019–related knowledge and behaviors were associated with race/ethnicity, sex, and age. African American participants, men, and people younger than 55 years were less likely to know how the disease is spread, were less likely to know the symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019, washed their hands less frequently, and left the home more often."
Source: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2767261
Commentary: The summary says it all. We have to do more to educate people about how COVID-19 is spread and what measures they can take to protect themselves. It's an indoor disease. It's a close proximity disease. It's an exposure time disease. Stay away from people, stay at home or outdoors, and stay away from people not in your home for long periods of time.
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Spot the spread. "That said, Oklahoma’s 140% increase vs last week is still #1 among large and medium states with 2 million population or more. Florida’s %increase has also climbed further - now to 90% increase (from 78% days before)."
Source:
Commentary: We are seeing outbreaks really take off in the sun belt now. Bad news all around, and a 15% increase nationally in the 7 day daily new case average. The war is not over. The fight is not over. And right now, the virus is winning.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason. Consider also spraying the bottoms of your shoes with a general disinfectant (alcohol/bleach/peroxide) when you return home. Remember that cleaners are never to be ingested.
2. Wear gloves and a mask when out of your home. Consider wearing a face shield if you can't breathe at all through a mask.
3. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters. Avoid indoor places as much as you can.
4. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
5. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.