Lunchtime Pandemic Reading, 19-December-2024
It's beginning to look a lot like...
Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crises and how to manage them. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from a qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific medical situation over advice from people on the Internet.
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Commentary: It's beginning to look a lot like a bird flu epidemic. And it's made worse by the fact that there are strong incentives not to test for it. From reader John Blue (an AgTech expert):
Farmers are not ones to want to admit a virus has hit their operations due to cost of depopulation. 2022 bird flu response was slow until it was discovered to be more wide spread. Now with cross over of h5n1 to cows/humans, farmers still reluctant to test & be ready to shut down - 😐😐 not testing allows farms to not have to do anything 😐😐
The basic reality of anything viral is that the more infections there are, the more at-bats it has to mutate into something the spreads among different populations - like humans. There are no incentives for managers of livestock to test, and strong incentives not to - which ultimately means the reservoirs of H5N1 flu virus are much, much larger than we think.
Get ready now. Make sure you have basic supplies like plenty of N95 masks (effective against ALL respiratory pathogens), gloves, sanitizing stuff (soap, hydrogen peroxide), and if you aren't already, start masking in crowded spaces. If this thing does take off, resistance to precautions like masking will be much stronger than during COVID, and that will mean faster disease spread.
Summary: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirms the first severe human case of H5N1 bird flu in the United States. The patient, located in Louisiana, is hospitalized in critical condition with severe respiratory illness. The individual, over 65 and with underlying health conditions, likely contracted the virus through contact with sick or dead birds in a backyard flock. This case involves a different H5N1 genotype (D1.1) than the one circulating in U.S. dairy cows (B3.13), and it mirrors a recent severe case in Canada.
Excerpt: "The United States has confirmed its first known severe human infection of H5N1 bird flu, in a person in Louisiana believed to have contracted the virus through contact with sick or dead birds in a backyard flock. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Wednesday that its laboratories were able to confirm the case that Louisiana had reported on Friday. The unidentified person is in critical condition, with severe respiratory illness, Emma Herrock, communications director of Louisianas Department of Health, told STAT in an email. She said the person was over the age of 65 and had health conditions known to increase the risk of serious illness from influenza."
Commentary: This case highlights the serious risk H5N1 poses, particularly to older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Given the severe respiratory symptoms, it underscores the importance of taking precautions. If you encounter sick or dead birds, avoid contact. Consider wearing an N95 mask to protect against potential airborne transmission, and always wash your hands thoroughly after any potential exposure. This virus is a serious respiratory threat.
Citation: Branswell, H. (2024, December 18). First severe case of H5N1 bird flu in the U.S. is confirmed by CDC. STAT. https://www.statnews.com/2024/12/18/h5n1-bird-flu-cdc-confirms-first-severe-human-case-louisiana-patient-hospitalized/
Summary: California declares a state of emergency as H5N1 bird flu spreads rapidly among dairy cattle. Over 60 human infections are reported in the U.S., with the first severe case confirmed in Louisiana. The virus, found in at least 650 California dairy herds, raises concerns about potential transmission to humans. While most human cases are mild, the severe case in Louisiana, linked to a different H5N1 strain found in wild birds, underscores the virus's potential for serious illness.
Excerpt: "California officials have declared a state of emergency over the spread of bird flu, which is tearing through dairy cows in that state and causing sporadic illnesses in people in the U.S. The virus, also known as Type A H5N1, was detected for the first time in U.S. dairy cattle in March. Since then, bird flu has been confirmed in at least 866 herds in 16 states. More than 60 people in eight states have been infected, with mostly mild illnesses, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. One person in Louisiana has been hospitalized with the nations first known severe illness caused by the virus, health officials said this week."
Commentary: The widespread outbreak in dairy cattle indicates a high level of H5N1 circulating in the environment. Although pasteurized milk remains safe, avoid consuming raw milk, as it can carry the virus. Given the potential for animal-to-human transmission, take precautions around livestock and wild birds. Wear an N95 mask to minimize respiratory exposure and practice good hand hygiene using a 2% hydrogen peroxide solution.
Citation: The Associated Press. (2024, December 19). What to know about California's bird flu emergency. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/bird-flu-h5n1-spread-people-e5edab844b409b8ba21feaecb10156d0
Summary: The CDC confirms the first severe human case of H5N1 bird flu in the U.S., a Louisiana patient hospitalized after exposure to backyard poultry. The case involves the D1.1 genotype, different from the B3.13 strain found in dairy cattle. This genotype is known to circulate in wild birds and was recently implicated in a severe illness in a teenager in Canada. While the CDC maintains a low public health risk assessment, the case highlights the potential for severe illness from H5N1.
Excerpt: "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today announced that it has confirmed the nations first severe H5N1 avian flu case, which involves a probable illness reported by Louisiana health officials a few days ago. The CDC said the illness also marks the nation's avian flu infection linked to exposure to backyard poultry. At a briefing today, a top CDC official said the severe clinical picture and the backyard poultry exposure matches the global pattern seen over the years in other countries."
Commentary: This case underscores the importance of caution around poultry. The D1.1 genotype's association with severe illness in other countries is concerning. If you are in contact with poultry, monitor their health closely. Wear an N95 mask when handling birds or cleaning their enclosures, and wash your hands thoroughly afterward. Given the potential for severe respiratory illness, early detection and medical attention are crucial.
Citation: CIDRAP. (2024, December 19). CDC confirms first severe H5N1 case in US patient. CIDRAP. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/cdc-confirms-first-severe-h5n1-case-us-patient
Summary: California declares a state of emergency due to the spread of H5N1 bird flu in dairy herds, while the U.S. reports its first severe human case in a Louisiana resident. The patient, over 65 and with underlying conditions, is hospitalized with severe respiratory illness. The case involves a D1.1 genotype, different from the one found in dairy cows, and similar to recent cases in Canada.
Excerpt: "The U.S. reported its first severe human case of bird flu on Wednesday in a Louisiana resident who is hospitalized in critical condition, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said. Agency officials didn't immediately detail the person's symptoms, but the Louisiana Department of Health said the patient is suffering severe respiratory illness. The person is reported to have underlying medical conditions and is over the age of 65, putting the patient at higher risk, the department said. California, the country's most populous state, declared an emergency later Wednesday as the H5N1 virus spreads more widely in dairy herds."
Commentary: The declaration of a state of emergency in California highlights the seriousness of the H5N1 situation. Tthis severe case is a reminder of the virus's potential impact. If you live in areas affected by the outbreak, be aware of the symptoms and seek medical attention if you develop respiratory illness. Practice good hygiene, including wearing an N95 mask in areas with known risk.
Citation: CBC News. (2024, December 20). California declares state of emergency over H5N1 bird flu. CBC News. https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/h5n1-cdc-1.7413772
Summary: The spread of H5N1 bird flu in U.S. dairy cattle continues, with California declaring a state of emergency. Over 60 human infections are reported, mostly mild, but a severe case in Louisiana raises concerns. The situation warrants monitoring, particularly among farm workers. The virus can be found in raw milk, highlighting the importance of consuming only pasteurized dairy products.
Excerpt: "California officials have declared a state of emergency over the spread of bird flu, where infections in dairy cows are increasing and causing sporadic illnesses in people in the U.S. The virus, also known as Type A H5N1, was detected for the first time in U.S. dairy cattle in March. Since then, bird flu has been confirmed in at least 866 herds in 16 states. More than 60 people in eight states have been infected, with mostly mild illnesses, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)."
Commentary: The ongoing spread among dairy cattle is concerning, and the severe case in Louisiana underscores the need for vigilance. Those working with livestock should take precautions. This includes wearing personal protective equipment, such as N95 masks and gloves, and practicing good hygiene. Avoid consuming raw milk, and be aware of the symptoms of H5N1, particularly respiratory illness.
Citation: CBC News. (2024, December 21). Breaking down the escalating U.S. bird flu situation. CBC News. https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/h5n1-california-louisiana-1.7415112
Summary: Louisiana reports its first probable human H5N1 case, involving a hospitalized individual exposed to sick birds. California reports two more probable cases in dairy farm workers, bringing the state's total to 34. Tests on a California child suspected of contracting H5N1 from raw milk were negative. The USDA confirms additional H5N1 outbreaks in dairy cattle and birds, and new detections in mammals, including a polar bear.
Excerpt: "Today, the Louisiana Department of Health (LDH) announced the state's first presumptive human H5N1 highly pathogenic avian flu case. The patient, a resident of southwestern Louisiana who was exposed to sick and dead birds with suspected infection, has been hospitalized. Also today, the California Department of Public Health reported 2 more probable human case of H5N1 in a dairy farm worker, raising the state's total to 34, all but 1 in people with occupational exposure."
Commentary: The increasing number of probable human cases, particularly among those with occupational exposure, is a cause for concern. The confirmation of H5N1 in various animals, including a polar bear, highlights the virus's wide reach. If you work with animals, especially livestock or poultry, take additional precautions to protect yourself. Wear an N95 mask and other protective gear, and practice rigorous hand hygiene. Be vigilant for symptoms of H5N1 and seek medical attention if needed.
Citation: CIDRAP. (2024, December 15). Louisiana reports its first probable human H5N1 case as California logs 2 more. CIDRAP. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/louisiana-reports-its-first-probable-human-h5n1-case-california-logs-2
A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. P100 respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too and start around US$40 for a reusable respirator (disclosure: Amazon affiliate link). Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
Masks are highly effective against ALL airborne pathogens.
Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
Get vaccinated as soon as you're eligible to for COVID and flu, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen, including boosters. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. There are new vaccines available now in addition to the boosters we already know that may be more efficacious and tolerated better, so talk to your healthcare provider about which vaccine or booster is the best choice for you.
Check COVID and flu dashboards to see how prevalent it is in your region. Focus especially on wastewater reporting. A couple of useful dashboards:
In areas of above-average prevalence, stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemics give another crazy plot twist to the economy, or you know, a global war breaks out.
Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
If you think you may have been exposed to COVID or influenza, purchase several rapid antigen tests and/or acquire them from your healthcare provider or government. This will detect diseases only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. This multi-test from the EU does COVID, influenza, and RSV (disclosure: Amazon affiliate link).
Remember, you are not clear until you take 2 tests that are negative, 24 hours apart.
Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414291297464321
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare a competing interest on Amazon affiliate links for products shared in this newsletter, for which I earn approximately 1% of the purchase price of anything purchased through those links. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and AI consulting firm. I have no clients in anything related to COVID or other communicable diseases.
I am not a qualified healthcare provider and I do not provide medical advice. Only take medical advice from your qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific details and can provide customized recommendations for you.