Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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Cases in the United States have bounced. "U.S. #COVID19 cases are increasing and community transmission is high.
The 7-day average of daily new cases is 146,182. This is 6.1% higher than the previous week. Get vaccinated."
Source:
Commentary: I had hoped that the wave of cases which seemed to crest around August 30 was the end of the fourth wave of COVID-19 in the USA. Unfortunately, driven by schools reopening and the Labor Day holiday weekend, we see that decline has reversed itself.
I work in marketing and one of the larger marketing conferences is coming up in two weeks. I'm envious of those folks who are attending in person; if your entire household is fully vaccinated and no one has any immune issues, your risks of even large gatherings are lower, especially if you remain masked the entire time. I was hoping for my colleagues' sake that the fourth wave would be over by the time the conference rolls around and then I'd feel a little silly sitting at my desk at home while a substantial number of folks were out having a good time.
Instead, it looks like the fourth wave is going to increase for a while, and attending events is off the table unless those events are rigorously screening with on-site, rapid antigen tests for every attendee, every day of the event.
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New Israeli data showing evidence for boosters. "💡AMAZING BOOSTER DATA—New study shows 3rd shot has 91% efficacy (11x ⬇️lower risk) against #DeltaVariant infection versus 2 shots (>=5 months earlier) among age 60+. Plus, 3rd shot has ~95% efficacy (19.5x ⬇️lower risk) against severe disease!🧵 #COVID19
2) moreover. The enhanced booster effects begin being apparent after day 12, increasing higher effects starting even day 10 after the shot perhaps.
3) most were not that elderly either 60-69. I’m also glad to see they enrolled 14% Arab population. The bulk were vaccinated in early February. Thinking of all the people who got vaccines before March that could benefit from this.
4) forgot to mention, Israel study used Pfizer- BioNTech vaccine. Also when analysis restricted to the general Jewish population, the rate ratio was 10.8 for infection & 21.7 lower for severe illness—thus, meaning result similar regardless of mainstream Jewish, Orthodox or Arab.
5) I’m also eager for data on Moderna booster shots, given that 2 doses of Moderna have higher efficacy than 2 doses of Pfizer and much higher than 1 dose of J&J—this is from a major CDC study. I think we need boosters - 3rd shot for elderly, and 2nd shot for J&J ASAP!"
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114255
Source:
Commentary: This is solid evidence that a booster shot helps reduce spread. In areas where there are high volumes of community spread, booster shots should be considered if there's excess vaccine stock and no one unvaccinated is getting in line.
The priority should always be a vaccine in someone unvaccinated, but if there's stock laying around that's just going to go bad, better a booster than the trash can.
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The United States is now averaging 2,000 COVID deaths per day and has killed 1 in 500 Americans.
Source:
Commentary: It didn't have to be like this. Not after April of 2021 when vaccines started rolling out at large. Every death after April/May in the USA was almost completely preventable.
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So far preventable healthcare costs in the USA have exceeded $5 BILLION. "A surge in COVID-19 hospitalizations among people who have not been vaccinated in August is adding billions of dollars in preventable costs to the nation’s health-care system, an updated KFF analysis finds.
In August, the new analysis estimates that the preventable costs of treating unvaccinated patients in hospitals total $3.7 billion, almost twice the estimates for June and July combined. The total preventable costs for those three months now stand at an estimated $5.7 billion.
The estimates draw on KFF’s analysis of U.S. Department of Health and Human Services data about COVID-19 hospital admissions, adjusted for admissions primarily for COVID-19, the share among unvaccinated patients and the share that likely could have been prevented if the patients were vaccinated, as well as other data estimating that each COVID hospitalization on average results in roughly $20,000 in hospital costs.
Only a small share of the cost of a COVID-19 hospitalization is typically paid directly by patients themselves. The rest is typically paid through insurers, including public programs like Medicare and Medicaid, and private insurance purchased by workers, businesses and individuals."
Source: https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/press-release/preventable-costs-of-unvaccinated-covid-19-patients-rise-sharply-in-august-as-hospitalizations-surge/
Commentary: Not getting vaccinated costs everyone money. Medicare and Medicaid are funded by taxpayers, so every person who gets hospitalized for COVID-19 because they're not vaccinated and covered by Medicare is taking money out of all our pockets.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
3. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. If you received an adenovirus vaccine (J&J/AstraZeneca), consider getting an mRNA single shot booster (Pfizer/Moderna) if permitted.
4. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home.
5. Stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
6. Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemic gives another crazy plot twist to the economy.
7. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
8. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
9. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
10. If you think you may have been exposed to COVID-19, purchase a rapid antigen test. This will detect COVID-19 only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. https://amzn.to/3fLAoor
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19.
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.