Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
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Good news on vaccines and variants. "A new study preprinted on biorxiv by researchers at New York University provides good news. While some of the new variants described in India evade, to some degree, the antibodies of patients who have recovered from infection (convalescent plasma), both these antibodies and those derived from fully vaccinated people still appear to function as intended, at least in laboratory settings. To a lesser extent, the study found the same to be true of monoclonal antibodies (i.e. Regeneron's therapeutic compound). These data imply that the new variants, B.1.617 and B.1.618 may be a little more slippery in their ability to wriggle away from natural and vaccine-induced antibodies, but not enough that those antibodies are rendered ineffective. In particular, most people who have recovered from infection or have been vaccinated are likely to have antibodies that are good enough to provide protection (the true clinical effect of the monoclonal antibodies among the "original" or "wildtype" variants remains debated).\ Interestingly, the measured antibody levels among vaccinated persons were about 5 times greater than those found among samples of blood taken from covid-19-recovered persons. This once again demonstrates that vaccines induce a massive antibody response, which is likely what makes them so effective to begin with and also explains in part why they have, so far, been remarkably able to overcome an onslaught variants. That said, the strength of the binding between the B.1.617 variant and vaccine-induced antibodies dropped 4-fold in this laboratory-based study. A 2.7-fold decrease was noted for the B.1.618 variant. "
Source: https://brief19.com/2021/05/17/brief
Commentary: This is why exxperts aren't concerned yet about variants - when the vaccine overdelivers a 5x response compared to natural immunity, even a 2.7x decrease in effectiveness against the variants is still a sizeable increase from natural immunity. Now we need to get vaccines to the entire planet, and quickly.
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Don't put away your masks just yet. "Fully vaccinated people are exhaling this weekend, ditching masks and easing up on social distancing, per the latest Covid-19 guidance put out by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The new advice marks a significant milestone in the nation’s effort to stamp out the disease, and signals the beginning of a return to normalcy. But scientists say there are good reasons not to toss out your mask stash just yet.
“It’s important to not see this change as a signal that this means that the pandemic is over or that there is no capacity for policy reversals in the future,” said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
Aerosol scientists like Linsey Marr, at Virginia Tech, point out that adopting a culture of occasional mask-wearing could have benefits that extend beyond the pandemic. “Not only does a mask help with COVID-19, but it also helps with other respiratory viruses, particulate air pollution, and pollen,” she told STAT via email. Colder, drier air brings with it the risks of other respiratory infections, including colds and the flu. With the world hunkering down last winter, most of those diseases declined drastically. Some disease modelers are predicting that could portend more severe flu seasons in the future. Masks would help mitigate those risks. (So would getting your flu shot.)"
Source: https://www.statnews.com/2021/05/16/mask-mandates-might-be-going-away-but-dont-ditch-yours-just-yet/
Commentary: I still plan to wear a mask because I have an unvaccinated 11-year old at home, and even thouhg the risk of me transmitting to them is low, it's not zero and there's no cost, no disadvantage to me continuing to wear a mask. I really enjoyed not catching a cold this winter.
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Trust in science predicts vaccine adoption. "While scholarly attention to date has focused almost entirely on individual-level drivers of vaccine confidence, we show that macro-level factors play an important role in understanding individual propensity to be confident about vaccination. We analyse data from the 2018 Wellcome Global Monitor survey covering over 120,000 respondents in 126 countries to assess how societal-level trust in science is related to vaccine confidence. In countries with a high aggregate level of trust in science, people are more likely to be confident about vaccination, over and above their individual-level scientific trust. Additionally, we show that societal consensus around trust in science moderates these individual-level and country-level relationships. In countries with a high level of consensus regarding the trustworthiness of science and scientists, the positive correlation between trust in science and vaccine confidence is stronger than it is in comparable countries where the level of social consensus is weaker."
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01115-7
Commentary: And what creates trust in science? A solid education system that teaches science and critical thinking. Sadly, there is and has been a crusade against knowledge and intellectualism in many places around the world over the past couple of decades.
The best thing we can do is continue to urge our elected officials to keep funding and advocating for education as a top priority.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Always wear the best mask available to you when out of your home and you'll be around other people, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen.
3. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason.
4. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters, preferably more. Avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
5. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
6. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
7. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
8. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
To be clear, I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19.
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.