Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from a qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific medical situation over advice from people on the Internet.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
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Commentary: The protection you need against the new strains of COVID, monkeypox, and other issues is already here and available:
Putting on an N95 or better mask.
Yes, get vaccinated. Yes, get boosted. But wear at least an N95 mask any time you're in an indoor space that isn't your home. As you'll read in today's issue, COVID is mutating FAST and its mutations are CLEVER. It's unlike any virus we've seen before and the consequences of it are potentially severe.
We focus on deaths, but we ignore the tens, perhaps hundreds of millions of cases of long term disability COVID is leaving in its wake, even as it mutates more. Keeping it out of your body is the ONLY guaranteed way to avoid these consequences.
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FDA authorizes vaccines for all children. "Independent advisers to the Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday recommended use of the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccines for babies and young children, a milestone in the nation’s efforts to combat a wily pathogen that continues to infect tens of thousands of people a day and upend the lives of families across the country.
The outside experts said the benefits of the vaccines outweighed the risks — the standard for an emergency use authorization. The vote was 21 to 0 for the vaccines from Moderna and from Pfizer and its German partner, BioNTech.
Children younger than 5 — a cohort estimated to number at least 19 million — are the only group in the United States who still do not have access to coronavirus vaccination. Now, that is poised to change."
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/06/14/coronavirus-vaccines-young-children/
Commentary: Get your little ones vaccinated if you have them the moment this vaccine rolls out in your area.
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SARS-CoV-2 is an impressive virus and it's learning fast. "The Omicron, or Pango lineage B.1.1.529, variant of SARS-CoV-2 carries multiple spike mutations with high transmissibility and partial neutralizing antibody (nAb) escape. Vaccinated individuals show protection from severe disease, often attributed to primed cellular immunity. We investigated T and B cell immunity against B.1.1.529 in triple mRNA vaccinated healthcare workers (HCW) with different SARS-CoV-2 infection histories. B and T cell immunity against previous variants of concern was enhanced in triple vaccinated individuals, but magnitude of T and B cell responses against B.1.1.529 spike protein was reduced. Immune imprinting by infection with the earlier B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant resulted in less durable binding antibody against B.1.1.529. Previously infection-naïve HCW who became infected during the B.1.1.529 wave showed enhanced immunity against earlier variants, but reduced nAb potency and T cell responses against B.1.1.529 itself. Previous Wuhan Hu-1 infection abrogated T cell recognition and any enhanced cross-reactive neutralizing immunity on infection with B.1.1.529."
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq1841#.YqmqNO71bmQ.twitter
Commentary: these mutations are honestly incredible. COVID is learning to suppress immune responses against itself - meaning it makes reinfection easier. And earlier lineages are so genetically different in terms of imprints on the immune system that reinfection without other precautions is inevitable.
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Long COVID causes neurogenesis impairment. "COVID survivors frequently experience lingering neurological symptoms that resemble cancer therapy-related cognitive impairment, a syndrome for which white-matter microglial reactivity and consequent neural dysregulation is central. Here, we explored the neurobiological effects of respiratory SARS-CoV-2 infection and found white-matter-selective microglial reactivity in mice and humans. Following mild respiratory COVID in mice, persistently impaired hippocampal neurogenesis, decreased oligodendrocytes and myelin loss were evident together with elevated CSF cytokines/chemokines including CCL11. Systemic CCL11 administration specifically caused hippocampal microglial reactivity and impaired neurogenesis. Concordantly, humans with lasting cognitive symptoms post-COVID exhibit elevated CCL11 levels. Compared to SARS-CoV-2, mild respiratory influenza in mice caused similar patterns of white matter-selective microglial reactivity, oligodendrocyte loss, impaired neurogenesis and elevated CCL11 at early timepoints, but after influenza only elevated CCL11 and hippocampal pathology persisted. These findings illustrate similar neuropathophysiology after cancer therapy and respiratory SARS-CoV-2 infection which may contribute to cognitive impairment following even mild COVID."
Source: https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)00713-9#.YqbpsYo2SEI.twitter
Commentary: Neurogenesis is the growth of new nerves and brain cells. COVID disrupts that, even after the acute phase of the disease itself has passed.
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COVID survivors have an astonishing 10-15x higher risk of suicide after 1 year. "Cohort comprising 153 848 people who survived the first 30 days of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and two control groups: a contemporary group (n=5 637 840) with no evidence of SARS-CoV-2, and a historical control group (n=5 859 251) that predated the covid-19 pandemic.
Risks of prespecified incident mental health outcomes, calculated as hazard ratio and absolute risk difference per 1000 people at one year, with corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Predefined covariates and algorithmically selected high dimensional covariates were used to balance the covid-19 and control groups through inverse weighting.
The covid-19 group showed an increased risk of incident anxiety disorders (hazard ratio 1.35 (95% confidence interval 1.30 to 1.39); risk difference 11.06 (95% confidence interval 9.64 to 12.53) per 1000 people at one year), depressive disorders (1.39 (1.34 to 1.43); 15.12 (13.38 to 16.91) per 1000 people at one year), stress and adjustment disorders (1.38 (1.34 to 1.43); 13.29 (11.71 to 14.92) per 1000 people at one year), and use of antidepressants (1.55 (1.50 to 1.60); 21.59 (19.63 to 23.60) per 1000 people at one year) and benzodiazepines (1.65 (1.58 to 1.72); 10.46 (9.37 to 11.61) per 1000 people at one year). The risk of incident opioid prescriptions also increased (1.76 (1.71 to 1.81); 35.90 (33.61 to 38.25) per 1000 people at one year), opioid use disorders (1.34 (1.21 to 1.48); 0.96 (0.59 to 1.37) per 1000 people at one year), and other (non-opioid) substance use disorders (1.20 (1.15 to 1.26); 4.34 (3.22 to 5.51) per 1000 people at one year). The covid-19 group also showed an increased risk of incident neurocognitive decline (1.80 (1.72 to 1.89); 10.75 (9.65 to 11.91) per 1000 people at one year) and sleep disorders (1.41 (1.38 to 1.45); 23.80 (21.65 to 26.00) per 1000 people at one year). The risk of any incident mental health diagnosis or prescription was increased (1.60 (1.55 to 1.66); 64.38 (58.90 to 70.01) per 1000 people at one year). The risks of examined outcomes were increased even among people who were not admitted to hospital and were highest among those who were admitted to hospital during the acute phase of covid-19. Results were consistent with those in the historical control group. The risk of incident mental health disorders was consistently higher in the covid-19 group in comparisons of people with covid-19 not admitted to hospital versus those not admitted to hospital for seasonal influenza, admitted to hospital with covid-19 versus admitted to hospital with seasonal influenza, and admitted to hospital with covid-19 versus admitted to hospital for any other cause"
Source: https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/376/bmj-2021-068993.full.pdf
Commentary: Two key things. First, keep this disease out of your body. The study above shows incidences of mental health disorders are higher regardless of disease severity.
Second, this is part of the overall long COVID wave of disability. For friends who have had COVID, be sure to check in on them more frequently and get them help if they are experiencing greater mental health issues.
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A note of caution in interpreting clinical trial results. "One Grade 4 (life-threatening) adverse event occurred in an infant who received the Pfizer vaccine in the clinical trial.
Coffee was spilled on them causing a thermal burn,
But it was reported to the trial investigators and Pfizer had to report it to the FDA."
Source:
Commentary: When you hear anti-vax critics talking about adverse events during trials, it may be something absolutely unrelated to the vaccine itself but still reported by law.
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The UK has classified monkeypox as an airborne infectious disease. "HCIDs are further divided into contact and airborne groups:
contact HCIDs are usually spread by direct contact with an infected patient or infected fluids, tissues and other materials, or by indirect contact with contaminated materials and fomites
airborne HCIDs are spread by respiratory droplets or aerosol transmission, in addition to contact routes of transmission"
Source: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid
Commentary:
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
3. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen, including boosters. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. If you received an adenovirus vaccine (J&J/AstraZeneca), consider getting an mRNA single shot booster (Pfizer/Moderna) if available. If it's available, choose Moderna as your first choice for both vaccine and booster, Pfizer as your second choice. However, remember than any vaccine is better than no vaccine.
4. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home.
5. Stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
6. Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemic gives another crazy plot twist to the economy, or you know, a global war breaks out.
7. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
8. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
9. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
10. If you think you may have been exposed to COVID-19, purchase a rapid antigen test. This will detect COVID-19 only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. https://amzn.to/3fLAoor
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19.
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.