Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
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Good news on the testing front. "The first home test for COVID-19 that doesn’t require a prescription will soon be on U.S. store shelves.
U.S. regulators Tuesday authorized the rapid coronavirus test, which can be done entirely at home. The announcement by the Food and Drug Administration represents another important — though incremental — step in efforts to expand testing options.
Regulators granted emergency use for a similar home test last month, but that one needs a doctor’s prescription.
The agency’s action Tuesday allows sales in places like drugstores “where a patient can buy it, swab their nose, run the test and find out their results in as little as 20 minutes,” said FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn, in a statement.
Initial supplies of the over-the-counter test will be limited. Australian manufacturer Ellume said it expects to produce 3 million tests next month before ramping up production over the first half of 2021.
A company spokesperson said the test will be priced around $30 and be available at pharmacies and for purchase online.
Still, Dr. Michael Mina of Harvard called the new test “a great addition,” to existing options, though he cautioned that its price could limit access.
“This is a milestone, with reservations,” Mina said in an email. “I just hope it doesn’t drive more of a wedge between haves and have nots.”
For people with insurance, federal law requires that plans cover the cost of COVID-19 testing."
Source: https://apnews.com/article/over-the-counter-home-coronavirus-test-ac070f4d42d9d7eacc486c9bed4ccaa0
Commentary: This is an important step forward. If we can get more people testing, we'll know better how quickly the disease is spreading, and hopefully be able to cut it off before major outbreaks become unstoppable.
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COVID killed more people ages 25-44 than opioids. "The largest burden of Covid-19 has undoubtedly fallen on people older than 65, accounting for around 80 percent of deaths in the United States. But if we momentarily eclipse that from our mind’s eye, something else becomes visible: The corona of this virus.
Young adults are dying at historic rates. In research published on Wednesday in the Journal of the American Medical Association, we found that among U.S. adults ages 25 to 44, from March through the end of July, there were almost 12,000 more deaths than were expected based on historical norms.
In fact, July appears to have been the deadliest month among this age group in modern American history. Over the past 20 years, an average of 11,000 young American adults died each July. This year that number swelled to over 16,000.
The trends continued this fall. Based on prior trends, around 154,000 in this demographic had been projected to die in 2020. We surpassed that total in mid-November. Even if death rates suddenly return to normal in December — and we know they have not — we would anticipate well over 170,000 deaths among U.S. adults in this demographic by the end of 2020.
Nor is it an illusion that people of color constitute a disproportionate fraction of the dead. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, among adults 25 to 44, Black and Hispanic people make up not just a disproportionate number but a majority of Covid-19 deaths through Sept. 30.
Stay-at-home policies have saved lives, but their benefits have not been equally distributed. Among essential workers, many of whom are people of color, sheltering-in-place was never a real option."
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/opinion/covid-deaths-young-adults.html
Source: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2774445
Commentary: Some demographics may have more favorable outcomes than others, but the reality is that no one is immune from harm to COVID-19. As the various doctors say, be patient. Stay the course for wearing a mask, washing your hands, etc. There IS an end in sight with the vaccine rolling out over the next year.
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The problem of animal reservoirs. "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can jump again, from humans, back into animals, back into wildlife, where it can wait, mutate, and change. Perhaps, years from now, it can infect people again.
“If we’re careful — and we’re lucky — there won’t be a wildlife population that becomes infected and becomes an established reservoir that can also infect people,” Sarah Olson, associate director of the health program at the Wildlife Conservation Society, says. “If it does, then we’ve got a long-term issue here, where this virus has the potential to be with us for millennia. And millennia is a long time. The risk may be small, but the consequences are huge.”
Our luck may soon be tested. On December 13, the US Department of Agriculture reported that a wild mink in Utah tested positive for the coronavirus.
“To our knowledge, this is the first free-ranging, native wild animal confirmed with SARS-CoV-2,” the National Veterinary Services Laboratories reported. A genetic analysis of the virus suggested the wild mink picked it up from a nearby mink farm, perhaps via wastewater runoff from the farm.
No other species surrounding the farm were found to be infected, though, and there’s no evidence that Covid-19 is spreading between wild mink. One possibility is the wild mink could have just picked it up from the farm, and has not spread it since.
Another possibility: We haven’t yet detected a bigger outbreak. “This is potentially going to be a more widespread problem in wild mink,” says Stephanie Seifert, a researcher at Washington State University’s school for global animal health. It’s “very unlikely they swabbed the only wild mink with SARS-CoV-2.”"
Source: https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/12/16/21826130/coronavirus-covid-19-in-animals-mink-dog-cats-gorillas-tigers
Commentary: This is why the vaccine is the only way out. With the virus in multiple animal populations, the only way we put out the fire that is the pandemic is through immunization. COVID-19 is lurking in multiple animal populations, and we can't do much about it.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason. Consider also spraying the bottoms of your shoes with a general disinfectant (alcohol/bleach/peroxide) when you return home. Remember that cleaners are NEVER to be ingested or injected. If you come in physical contact with others, wash your clothing upon returning home.
2. Always wear a mask when out of your home and if going to a high-risk area, wear goggles. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. When going indoors to a place that isn't your home, wear the best protective mask available to you.
3. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters, preferably more. Avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
4. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
5. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
6. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.