Lunchtime Pandemic Reading, 16-April-2020
5.245 million
Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
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CDC is reviewing a test of Boston's Pine Street Inn homeless shelter where allegedly 100% of positive-testing patients were asymptomatic. "“It was like a double knockout punch. The number of positives was shocking, but the fact that 100 percent of the positives had no symptoms was equally shocking,” said Dr. Jim O’Connell, President of Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program, which gives medical care at the city’s shelters."
Source: https://www.boston25news.com/news/cdc-reviewing-stunning-universal-testing-results-boston-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/
This disease is much more stealthy than it first appears, and this test result, if confirmed, also shows the dire need for universal testing for it. Social distancing and lockdowns cannot end until testing ramps up to scale with the population of every nation. Without it, we have no way of seeing where the disease is.
How bad is it? Nature Medicine cites a 44% infection rate of people during the presymptomatic stage of infection. In other words, treat EVERY person you see outside your household as though they were infected. Assume they are infected.
Source:
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5
Keep calling and messaging your elected officials for increased testing, increased testing, increased testing. Testing should look like the ice cream truck driving through your neighborhood - a new test run every week, in every community.
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A new report from AAAS/Science Magazine highlights the challenges of SARS-CoV-2: "We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024."
Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793
This report urges us to be ready for a second large wave in the fall and winter, similar to influenza's peaks and valleys. Until a vaccine is available, we will need some form of social distancing on an ongoing basis, and constant vigilance against the virus. Urge your elected officials to increase funding for research and other public health measures as much as practical; the sooner the human race has a vaccine, the sooner we end this war. Until then, we will be on a wartime footing - which is what you're doing now.
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A preprint paper on the spread of COVID-19 in the United States reveals early spread of the diseases was interstate. "The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States in January, 2020, with subsequent COVID-19 outbreaks detected in all 50 states by early March. To uncover the sources of SARS-CoV-2 introductions and patterns of spread within the U.S., we sequenced nine viral genomes from early reported COVID-19 patients in Connecticut. Our phylogenetic analysis places the majority of these genomes with viruses sequenced from Washington state. By coupling our genomic data with domestic and international travel patterns, we show that early SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Connecticut was likely driven by domestic introductions. Moreover, the risk of domestic importation to Connecticut exceeded that of international importation by mid-March regardless of our estimated impacts of federal travel restrictions. This study provides evidence for widespread, sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within the U.S. and highlights the critical need for local surveillance."
Source: https://www.cell.com/pb-assets/products/coronavirus/CELL_CELL-D-20-00892.pdf
Being late to the game with social distancing and not taking the threat seriously has led us to where we are now. The only way out is for continued aggressive distancing and vastly increased testing.
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The initial job loss claims today hit 5.245 million, with a total so far of 22 million. This puts unemployment at roughly 14%. "Protection measures against the coronavirus continued to tear through the employment ranks, with 5.245 million more Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The new filings bring the crisis total to just over 22 million, nearly wiping out all the job gains since the Great Recession. The total was a bit worse than the 5 million expected from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Though the most recent total, for the week ended April 11, represented a drop from the previous two weeks, it still showed that the damage to the U.S. labor market remains profound. The numbers of late have been bolstered by measures taken to allow more workers to file claims. They now include independent contractors and others who previously were not eligible for benefits. Last week's initially reported total of 6.606 million was revised up slightly to 6.615 million."
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html
Some economists, notably Paul Krugman, are projecting that we will eclipse the unemployment rates in the Great Depression.
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On a somewhat lighter note, if your dreams have been weird since lockdowns began, National Geographic may be able to explain why. "Science has long suggested that dream content and emotions are connected to wellbeing while we’re awake. Bizarre dreams laden with symbolism allow some dreamers to overcome intense memories or everyday psychological stressors within the safety of their subconscious. Nightmares, on the other hand, can be warning signs of anxieties that we might not otherwise perceive in our waking lives. With hundreds of millions of people sheltering at home during the coronavirus pandemic, some dream experts believe that withdrawal from our usual environments and daily stimuli has left dreamers with a dearth of “inspiration,” forcing our subconscious minds to draw more heavily on themes from our past."
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/coronavirus-pandemic-is-giving-people-vivid-unusual-dreams-here-is-why/
So if your dreams have been extra weird, this is probably why.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason. Consider also spraying the bottoms of your shoes with a general disinfectant (alcohol/bleach/peroxide) when you return home.
2. Wear gloves and a mask when out of your home.
3. Stay home as much as possible.
4. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
5. Donate any PPE you can. https://getusppe.org/give/
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Common myths debunked. There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Mmmm....ice cream truck...