Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from a qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific medical situation over advice from people on the Internet.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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"If spending thanksgiving together with family and concerned about #COVID19
1) Vaccinate. Even a single dose for your kid 10 days prior is an incredible safeguard
2) Rapid test the morning of-Don’t join if Pos. It will massively reduce risk - much more than intermittent masking
Some other things you can do:
Think about ventilation. Open windows if the weather permits. Have thanksgiving outside if you’re in a warm place.
If cold out, think about getting a portable HEPA air filter or other DIY filters. They work!
2/
If vulnerable people will be at thanksgiving, don’t assume vaccines prevent transmission and don’t expect an elderly relative is totally protected. Even if boosted, they aren’t completely protected. Which is why keeping the virus out in the first place is essential."
Source:
Commentary: Rapid tests are the smart way to go for the holidays. They provide an easy way to detect if someone is infectious the day of an event, and that plus masking and good ventilation helps keep at-risk folks safe. Rapid tests at least in the USA are available at major retailers and pharmacies.
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Florida is a warning, not a success. "Some outlets are trumpeting the currently small number of cases in Florida as vindicating the state’s covid-curious approach to the pandemic. The reality is different, and uncomfortable for undervaccinated communities here and around the world as the nights draw in 1/n
FL was always high risk for high mortality, if only because of the age profile of the population. However once effective vaccines were widely available in early 2021, there were reasons to think that bullet had been dodged. That’s not how things turned out 2/n
A combination of lax mitigation and poor vaccination in older age groups led to a large surge of infections with the Delta variant, which is both more transmissible and likely to lead to hospitalization 3/n
This graphic illustrates the relationship between vaccinations in older folks and hospitalizations in mid sept using data compiled by Alex Washburne. The lines lead to where hospitalizations were the month previously. And the size of the points is time since Delta arrived 4/n
And this GIF (also Alex) shows increasing % of vaccination over time for each state against hospitalizations. Guess which point is FL? 5/n
What are the consequences? Well there is a clear late surge in FL deaths. This is the cumulative mortality. There were more than 24,000 since May 1st. In other words since vaccines. These were overwhelmingly in unvaccinated people and hence the great majority were preventable 6/n
Compare with MA, hit hard early on. Here close to 50% of deaths happened by the start of July 2020. A total of A little more than 8000 lives lost in a few months. But MA is smaller than FL 7/n
Up to July 2020, the pandemic mortality in MA was 1 out of every 855 dead to the virus. *Since* May 1st 2021 the equivalent figure for FL 1 out of every 880 (MA 1169/million, FL since 05/01/21 1137/million all figures from worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…) 8/n
In other words FL has endured a pandemic summer SINCE VACCINES WERE AVAILABLE that was comparable to the earliest surge of the pandemic when we had nothing to protect us 9/n
Is it over? Well undoubtedly FL has more immunity, as well as death, than it did. That will be contributing to low case numbers. But they won’t necessarily stay this low forever. Cases there have plateaued and some of the decline was likely due to changed contact patterns 10/n
There was a hiatus around this time in 2020. Before an uptick around the holidays which echoed that in northern states (though not as large, relatively speaking) peaking in early Jan 11/n
But in well vaccinated locations with a lot of prior infection like the North East US or the UK, transmission is continuing even now. Vaccines in both places are mercifully blunting the consequences, but they haven’t eliminated the virus 12/n
(in passing this is one of the reasons why low lift interventions to limit transmission are a complement to vaccination as immunity accumulates and protection grows. They won't be necessary forever, but they will help avoid large spikes now) 13/n
The message – there are plenty communities with vaccination rates as poor as FL’s before delta. To say nothing of the world. Florida's dreadful pandemic summer should be a warning. Vaccines save lives, and the virus is not done with us yet 14/end "
Source:
Commentary: The winter wave is underway in the northern hemisphere, so mask up if you aren't already and if you have people in your household eligible for vaccination that haven't been already, get them vaccinated.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
3. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. If you received an adenovirus vaccine (J&J/AstraZeneca), consider getting an mRNA single shot booster (Pfizer/Moderna) if permitted.
4. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home.
5. Stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
6. Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemic gives another crazy plot twist to the economy.
7. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
8. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
9. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
10. If you think you may have been exposed to COVID-19, purchase a rapid antigen test. This will detect COVID-19 only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. https://amzn.to/3fLAoor
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19.
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.