Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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Better days are ahead, and not too far away. We have to maintain vigilance for a few months more, until everyone who wants a vaccination can get one. I talked with my parents this weekend who were overjoyed that, after they completed both Moderna vaccinations and waited the 14 day cooldown period after the second shot, they were able to go out to eat at their favorite breakfast place for the first time in a year. I'm just relieved that they've gotten vaccinated, and I'm eager for when it's eventually my turn, despite my dislike of needles. Barring any unexpected twists and turns, you'll definitely be having private holiday gatherings towards the end of the calendar year, and possibly as soon as mid-July, depending on how fast vaccination is going in your region.
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Beware spring break. "CDC Director Rochelle Walensky warns about maskless spring break goers could trigger another nationwide #COVID19 surge."
Source:
Commentary: While I'm not hopeful, at least enough people are raising the alarm that this is a problem that some portion of the college-age audience will listen and avoid travel, particularly to areas where vaccination has been slower or uneven.
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Follow dosing instructions. "A retrospective cohort analysis in two Connecticut SNFs found partial vaccination with Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (from >14 days after dose 1 through 7 days after dose 2) to be 63% (95% confidence interval = 33%–79%) effective against SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Even with partial vaccination, Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine provides protection to SNF residents. To optimize vaccine impact among this population, high coverage with the complete 2-dose series is recommended."
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7011e3.htm?s_cid=mm7011e3_w
Commentary: For those at greater risk, you MUST get both doses if you're getting a 2-dose vaccine.
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Israel as the model. "Assessing the effectiveness and the impact of the vaccination campaign in Israel was challenging, as the government imposed a third lockdown during the early weeks of the campaign. In addition, more virulent variants of the virus, such as SARS-CoV-2 B117, emerged in Israel. Despite these challenges, roughly 2 months into the campaign, real-life evidence for the effectiveness and impact of the vaccine are starting to accumulate. The first report estimated an effectiveness (relative risk reduction) of 51% on days 13–24 after the first dose of BNT162b2. This was based on a comparison of the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during days 13–24, compared with days 1–12, after the first dose5. A second study matched newly vaccinated individuals to unvaccinated controls. The estimated vaccine effectiveness was 46% and 92% for documented SARS-CoV-2 infection 14–20 days after the first dose and 7 or more days after the second dose, respectively6. These findings are encouraging, showing consistency between real-life effectiveness and the results reported in the randomized control trial3.
As mentioned above, the impact of a vaccine depends not only on its effectiveness but also on factors such as vaccine coverage and allocation to different groups. These factors should be carefully considered in determining vaccination rollout strategies. For example, vaccinating individuals at the highest risk for severe morbidity is indisputably of high importance. However, prioritizing individuals who are not considered as being at a high risk but are more prone to transmit the disease (such as individuals working in health-care settings or in confined spaces with close proximity to others) should also be considered. Strategies to increase vaccination rates, especially in younger and healthier individuals who are more reluctant to be vaccinated, are also advised. The Israel ministry of health tried to tackle this in various creative ways, including the opening of vaccination centres at night, removing the need for pre-registration, setting up ‘vaccine carts’ in nature reserves on weekends and offering incentives such as free meals. Finally, it should be emphasized and communicated to the public that vaccination does not confer full protection, especially following the first dose, and that continued adherence to public health prevention guidance is still important for those vaccinated. Informing the public of the initial results of real-life impact and effectiveness in real time is also important, as these positive signals may increase public trust and initiate a positive-feedback loop towards higher vaccination rates."
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-021-00531-0
Commentary: We've all been watching to see what happens to the pandemic in Israel with its extremely aggressive vaccination schedule, and what we see is a reason for optimism. The vaccines - and the people who take them - are doing their jobs, and the pandemic is burning out.
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And for a laugh - funny AND accurate.
Source: https://www.tiktok.com/@hotvickkrishna/video/6937457241968643334
Commentary: In case you were wondering how mRNA vaccines work, this is an amazing, very short explainer. Fork hands!
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Always wear the best mask available to you when out of your home and you'll be around other people. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to.
3. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason.
4. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters, preferably more. Avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
5. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
6. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
7. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
8. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.