Lunchtime Pandemic Reading, 14-August-2024
Now with more AI
Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crises and how to manage them. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from a qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific medical situation over advice from people on the Internet.
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AI Disclosure: I've started using Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro model to summarize the texts of studies. I'll continue providing links to the sources, but to make the content more accessible to non-technical folks, news summaries will be AI-generated from now on.
Hi. We're in the middle of a massive surge thanks to variant KP.3.1.1. Mask up. In the USA, current prevalence estimates are 1 in 31 people are infected, varying by region.
Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#wastewater-surveillance
Long COVID is a complex, multi-system disorder resulting from SARS-CoV-2 infection that can affect nearly every organ system, leaving individuals severely disabled. Affecting approximately 400 million people globally, long COVID is estimated to have an annual economic impact of around $1 trillion, equivalent to 1% of the global economy. While the Omicron variant poses a lower risk compared to previous variants, and vaccines and antiviral medications can reduce the likelihood of developing long COVID, reinfection significantly increases the risk. Although the exact causes are still being researched, several pathways are implicated, including viral persistence, immune dysregulation, and mitochondrial dysfunction, resulting in a range of symptoms like brain fog, fatigue, and post-exertional malaise. Effective treatments are still under development, but current research suggests a need for interventions that address the diverse biological mechanisms and clinical presentations of this multifaceted condition.
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03173-6
Commentary: FOUR HUNDRED MILLION. That's how many people have been affected by Long COVID. That's TWENTY PERCENT of the PLANET's population. And this part is vital:
"reinfection significantly increases the risk"
COVID is a mass disabling event. You don't want it. Keep it out of you.
A new study found that all masks and respirators helped reduce the amount of virus people with COVID-19 released into the air. While any mask is better than none, N95 respirators were the most effective, reducing viral load by 98% even without special training or fit testing. This research highlights that wearing a well-fitted N95 respirator can significantly reduce the spread of the virus, especially in healthcare settings where protecting vulnerable patients is critical.
Source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(24)00192-0/fulltext
Commentary: This is key: any mask is better than none, but N95 or better, properly worn, is incredibly protective.
Research suggests that certain SARS-CoV-2 variants may weaken the body's immune response by infecting lymphocytes, a type of white blood cell crucial for fighting infections. This occurs through a strong binding between the virus's N protein and the CD147 receptor on lymphocytes, a process potentially enhanced by mutations in newer variants. This interaction could explain the prolonged infectious period and the higher risk of developing immune deficiency syndromes in individuals infected with these specific variants, highlighting a concerning evolutionary path of the virus.
Source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2319417023000872?via%3Dihub
Commentary: This is a frankly shocking study. In effect, COVID behaves somewhat like AIDS.
University of Houston researchers have developed a groundbreaking nasal spray vaccine that could revolutionize our fight against the flu and coronaviruses, including COVID-19. Unlike current vaccines that primarily prevent serious illness but not necessarily transmission, this innovative approach aims to completely stop the virus from spreading by targeting its entry point in the nose. The nasal spray vaccine has shown remarkable effectiveness in animal studies, completely preventing the transmission of even highly contagious COVID-19 variants like Omicron. Moreover, it holds promise as a universal coronavirus vaccine, potentially protecting against a wide range of coronaviruses and mitigating the need for frequent booster shots. The researchers emphasize that eradicating the virus entirely, rather than simply managing its symptoms, is crucial to truly overcoming these respiratory threats. Before seeking FDA approval for the vaccine, the team is prioritizing the development of a separate nasal spray treatment for influenza, which utilizes the immune-boosting power of cGAMP to combat even drug-resistant strains, potentially offering a more effective alternative to traditional antiviral medications like Tamiflu.
Commentary: Intranasal vaccines could be a critical boost in the fight against COVID by killing off transmission. If we can stop it from spreading, even uptake of 20-30% could seriously impair the disease. Let's hope this makes it through clinical trials quickly.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the spread of mpox in multiple African countries a global health emergency. This declaration comes after a new strain of mpox, different from the one circulating globally in 2022, was detected in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and began spreading to neighboring countries. While mpox is typically spread through contact with infected animals, this new strain is spreading through human-to-human contact, including sexual transmission. The WHO is working to understand how the virus is spreading and to ensure countries have access to vaccines, urging nations with available doses to consider donating them to help contain the outbreak.
Source: https://www.statnews.com/2024/08/14/who-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-global-health-emergency/
Commentary: Monkeypox continues to pop its ugly head up from time to time, and we need to continue suppressing it. Fortunately, it's much less transmissible than airborne diseases like COVID.
A new study discovered that high levels of the enzyme oleoyl-ACP hydrolase (OLAH), involved in fatty acid production, are linked to severe illness from respiratory viruses like influenza, COVID-19, and RSV. High OLAH levels cause a build-up of fat droplets in lung macrophages, providing fuel for the virus to replicate and triggering excessive inflammation. Mice without the OLAH gene were protected from severe influenza, experiencing less virus, lung damage, and inflammation. Furthermore, oleic acid, a fatty acid produced by OLAH, worsened influenza infection, highlighting OLAH as a potential target for new treatments aimed at reducing viral replication, inflammation, and disease severity.
Source: https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(24)00800-6
Commentary: This is a fascinating study because it highlights just how complex disease is. Obviously, turning off OLAH production in the body on a permanent basis would be disastrous for our health, but temporarily suppressing it even partially might take a fatal case of COVID and turn it down to a serious case.
A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. P100 respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too and start around US$40 for a reusable respirator (disclosure: Amazon affiliate link). Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
Get vaccinated as soon as you're eligible to for COVID and flu, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen, including boosters. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. There are new vaccines available now in addition to the boosters we already know that may be more efficacious and tolerated better, so talk to your healthcare provider about which vaccine or booster is the best choice for you.
Check COVID and flu dashboards to see how prevalent it is in your region. Focus especially on wastewater reporting. A couple of useful dashboards:
In areas of above-average prevalence, stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemics give another crazy plot twist to the economy, or you know, a global war breaks out.
Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
If you think you may have been exposed to COVID or influenza, purchase several rapid antigen tests and/or acquire them from your healthcare provider or government. This will detect diseases only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. This multi-test from the EU does COVID, influenza, and RSV (disclosure: Amazon affiliate link).
Remember, you are not clear until you take 2 tests that are negative, 24 hours apart.
Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414291297464321
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare a competing interest on Amazon affiliate links for products shared in this newsletter, for which I earn approximately 1% of the purchase price of anything purchased through those links. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and AI consulting firm. I have no clients in anything related to COVID or other communicable diseases.
I am not a qualified healthcare provider and I do not provide medical advice. Only take medical advice from your qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific details and can provide customized recommendations for you.