Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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The B.1.1.7 strain is being detected more frequently in the USA. "The SARS-CoV-2 variant (B.1.1.7) strain—first identified in the United Kingdom—has garnered much of the world’s attention in recent weeks. This variant is known to carry several mutations that culminate in a more infectious strain of the virus and presents a significant threat to public health.
We first reported the potential spread of the B.1.1.7 variant in the United States based on the occurrence of S gene dropout—a phenomenon where qRT-PCR testing fails to detect the presence of the virus’ S gene, owing to a deletion mutation affecting amino acids H69 and V70 (this is also known as S gene target failure, or SGTF). This deletion is one of several mutations that distinguish the B.1.1.7 from other SARS-CoV-2 strains.
B.1.1.7 appears to currently represent 0.27% of all positive tests and 43% of SGTF samples, up from 0.17% and 34% last week, respectively.
B.1.1.7 has been found in 3 additional states (TX, MN, IN), adding to the 4 previously reported (CA, FL, PA, GA)
B.1.1.7 has been found in 4 of the 5 states where we have statistical power to detect it (CA, FL, PA, IN), as well as 3 additional states where we are underpowered (GA, TX, MN)."
Source: https://blog.helix.com/b117-variant-updated-data/
Commentary: These new strains - B.1.1.7, 501Y.V2, and E484K - are accelerating the spread of COVID-19. With the exception of Israel, countries around the world are not accelerating the pace of vaccination. This is a race against the clock, and so far, the virus is racing ahead while we humans are still putting on our running shoes.
We need to vaccinate fast, and vaccinate big. Given the increased infectious nature of these new strains and the haphazard compliance with existing protective measures, the vaccine is our best defense against COVID-19 right now.
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Very early evidence Israel is turning the tide, with 20% of the population vaccinated.
Source:
Commentary: That Israel is already seeing substantial change is a great sign for the vaccine's efficacy in stopping COVID-19. Everyone else needs to pick up the pace.
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New evidence of neuroinvasion of SARS-CoV-2. "Although COVID-19 is considered to be primarily a respiratory disease, SARS-CoV-2 affects multiple organ systems including the central nervous system (CNS). Yet, there is no consensus on the consequences of CNS infections. Here, we used three independent approaches to probe the capacity of SARS-CoV-2 to infect the brain. First, using human brain organoids, we observed clear evidence of infection with accompanying metabolic changes in infected and neighboring neurons. However, no evidence for type I interferon responses was detected. We demonstrate that neuronal infection can be prevented by blocking ACE2 with antibodies or by administering cerebrospinal fluid from a COVID-19 patient. Second, using mice overexpressing human ACE2, we demonstrate SARS-CoV-2 neuroinvasion in vivo. Finally, in autopsies from patients who died of COVID-19, we detect SARS-CoV-2 in cortical neurons and note pathological features associated with infection with minimal immune cell infiltrates. These results provide evidence for the neuroinvasive capacity of SARS-CoV-2 and an unexpected consequence of direct infection of neurons by SARS-CoV-2.
Closer examination showed diverging metabolic changes in infected versus neighboring cells, suggesting that the infected cells can cause local changes to their microenvironment, affecting survival of nearby cells. It is possible that viral infection induces locally hypoxic regions, which aids in lowering the threshold for tissue damage in the context of an already oxygen-deprived state."
Source: https://rupress.org/jem/article/218/3/e20202135/211674/Neuroinvasion-of-SARS-CoV-2-in-human-and-mouse
Commentary: This finding is fairly shocking and really bad news. Fundamentally, what the study says is that the SARS-CoV-2 virus causes blood supply issues in the brain, resulting in brain cells dying in localized clusters. Additionally, it showed that the virus didn't provoke a strong immune response in the neurons.
In other words, SARS-CoV-2 punches holes in your brain like Swiss cheese. Whether you survive or not, the fact that the virus can attack the brain and cause issues means that people suffering from "COVID fog" and other cognitive issues are likely dealing with physical, neurological damage in their brains. It's not imaginary.
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Another doctor in favor of N95 masks all the time. "If we wanted to get serious vs B.1.1.7
—get N95/K95 masks to all and enforce their use
—get rapid home testing big supply to each household for daily use
—amp up digital, mobility, genomic and wastewater surveillance 100X
—vaccinate 24/7 like it's an emergency. Because it is."
Source:
Commentary: It's pretty clear, especially with the new strains spreading, that you should be wearing the best mask available to you at all times now, outside your home, but especially indoors. Cloth masks are no longer acceptable for maximum safety in stores, supermarkets, etc. for protecting yourself. N95 or better only, please.
Cloth masks should be fine outdoors, especially if you are able to maintain solid distance - 3-5 meters / 9-15 feet away from others.
I recommend the Miller Electric/GVS P100 half-face respirators. It's what I wear all the time, even outdoors. They seal well, they block just about everything, and they keep my glasses from fogging up, too. If you're going to be around others, wear a cloth mask over it because there's no filter on outbound air, or cut some cloth to fit inside the exhaust port.
https://amzn.to/3bBRWlC
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Always wear the best mask available to you when out of your home and you'll be around other people. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too.
2. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to.
3. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason.
4. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters, preferably more. Avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
5. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
6. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
7. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
8. How to properly fit a mask:
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.