Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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Another new lineage that bears attributes of B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P1.
"Another new lineage worth monitoring is B.1.525. Just designated: https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/4 spike mutations E484K, Q677H, F888L plus the 2 deletions seen in B.1.1.7 spike 69-70, 144 and the nsp6 deletion seen in B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1.
Very genetically distinct (20 mutations on the stem, but 9 are synonymous or intergenic - may represent circulation in un-sampled region), geographically widespread but not that diverse so likely represents international travel."
Source:
Commentary: Whether this inherits all the advantages of each strain is yet to be seen. It is noteworthy in that it combines several of the different strain mutations, and has been seen in the wild.
SARS-CoV-2 continues to adapt and change as it spreads. This is why stopping the spread is so essential. Eventually, just through natural evolution, a much more robust strain that correctly has all the mutations of faster spread, resistance to immunity, and greater fitness will emerge. How quickly it emerges depends on how many people are infected. Mutation is like the lottery - the more times you play, the better your chances of winning. COVID-19 currently has hundreds of millions of lottery tickets.
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The wrong time to lift restrictions. "Today, we know much more about not only B.1.1.7, the so-called U.K. variant, but also several other variants that have since emerged. For instance, we know that B.1.1.7 is more contagious than its known siblings and that it is already in New York and other states. Experts warn that if not addressed carefully, B.1.1.7 could become the dominant version of the virus in the United States in a matter of months.
In light of this knowledge, Mr. Cuomo’s plan to reopen New York City restaurants for indoor dining this week, at 25 percent capacity — and to soon relax other strictures, like those for weddings — is baffling.
This is a precarious moment in the fight against the coronavirus in the United States. Case counts are declining. The death rate is slowing down. The country finally has a president who takes the crisis seriously. The vaccination rollout has been a bumbling mess, but the situation is improving, and it will get better still: The Federal Emergency Management Agency has been activated to help administer shots, the Food and Drug Administration could authorize a third vaccine for emergency use by the end of this month, and President Biden is partnering with clinics in underserved communities to correct for early vaccination inequities.
In the meantime, officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are pleading with the American public to strengthen its resolve on measures to reduce viral spread, like physical distancing, mask wearing and avoidance of settings where the virus is likely to spread most easily — think a restaurant’s dining room or a large, indoor wedding. The C.D.C. is also asking state leaders not to let up on closings and restrictions just yet.
Too many leaders — not just Mr. Cuomo — are ignoring that call. Massachusetts and New Jersey are allowing businesses, including restaurants, to expand capacity for indoor services, and Iowa just lifted its mask mandate. The impulse behind these moves is understandable. Restaurants and the people who earn their living through them are in dire straits because they have not received sufficient government assistance. State and local economies are hanging by a thread, and everyone is exhausted by restrictions and desperate to return to some semblance of normal life."
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/10/opinion/covid-cuomo-indoor-dining.html
Commentary: The antidote to businesses ailing from mandated closures - like restaurants and bars, which should not be open except for takeout - is financial assistance. We must pay those businesses to stay closed except for back of house so that we cut down on spread. B.1.1.7 is estimated to be between 35-55% more contagious - so much so that it spreads during strict lockdowns, as the UK and Denmark have shown. It will spread like wildfire in a less strict environment like the United States - and opening up anything right now is the wrong move. Provide financial assistance to businesses while we get vaccinations ramped up.
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WHO confirms reinfection. "“We are now getting reports of people getting reinfected with a new variant of the virus … suggesting people who’ve had prior infection could get infected again.”
— WHO Chief Scientist Dr. Soumya Swaminathan"
Source:
Commentary: This is the B.1.351 strain with the E484K mutation. The reason this matters is that any strain with the E484K mutation has the potential to reinfect early COVID-19 patients. The counsel must be for everyone, vaccinated or not, previously infected or not, to keep wearing masks and staying out of indoor spaces for long periods of time. Keep up your precautions regardless of your status.
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A fun PSA to close out the week.
Source:
Commentary: One of those things you just have to watch.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Always wear the best mask available to you when out of your home and you'll be around other people. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to.
3. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason.
4. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters, preferably more. Avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
5. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
6. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
7. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
8. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.