Lunchtime Pandemic Reading, 11-September-2020
Never forget those fallen on 9/11 and in the pandemic
Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
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A special commentary. Today is September 11, 2020. 19 years ago, terrorists attacked the United States, killing 2,977 people. As of today, planet-wide, we are experiencing about 6,000 deaths per day, or two 9/11s every day. As we honor the fallen from 9/11/2001, please also remember to honor the fallen doctors, nurses, EMTs, and essential workers like grocers, supply chain employees, educators, and others who have been killed by no less vicious and no less persistent a threat, the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Honor those who still serve today in adverse conditions, doing their best to make sure our societies continue to function, and continue to press our respective governments to make the best, most sound, most scientifically informed decisions possible to bring the pandemic to an end with as little loss of life as possible.
The etymology of the word hero comes from Greek, heros, literally one who protects or defends. Honor our heroes, living or deceased, today and everyday for the sacrifices they make, and do your part to make their sacrifices not in vain. Wear a mask, watch your distance, wash your hands, withdraw from indoor spaces, and work to elect and hold accountable public officials who look out for everyone's interests.
For those of you who are American, this message has special importance. America has lost more people to COVID-19 than to World War I - and in 6 months, compared to the 4 years of World War I. If you haven't registered to vote, or if you haven't verified your voter eligibility, please do so today at Vote.org - and urge everyone else you know who might be eligible to vote to do the same.
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On vaccine confidence. "Between November, 2015, and December, 2019, we estimate that confidence in the importance, safety, and effectiveness of vaccines fell in Afghanistan, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, and South Korea. We found significant increases in respondents strongly disagreeing that vaccines are safe between 2015 and 2019 in six countries: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Serbia. We find signs that confidence has improved between 2018 and 2019 in some EU member states, including Finland, France, Ireland, and Italy, with recent losses detected in Poland. Confidence in the importance of vaccines (rather than in their safety or effectiveness) had the strongest univariate association with vaccine uptake compared with other determinants considered. When a link was found between individuals' religious beliefs and uptake, findings indicated that minority religious groups tended to have lower probabilities of uptake.
Most vaccine safety scares are not supported by scientific evidence. For example, by 2019, there were 16 methodologically sound, controlled epidemiological studies exploring an association between autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and receipt of the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine, thimerosal in vaccines, and simultaneous vaccination. These studies were conducted by a broad range of investigators, using a wide variety of methods and among different study populations globally—none of these studies found an association between childhood vaccines and ASD.7 Nonetheless, a substantial proportion, perhaps up to 30%,8 of the public continue to believe childhood vaccines cause ASD. The persistence of this belief despite overwhelming evidence has led some to conclude the science does not matter in affecting public opinion. However, if we consider when these concerns on vaccine safety were first raised and how long it took for the scientific community to address them, it becomes clear that the science was slow.9 The development of robust scientific evidence takes time, whereas anecdote, sensationalism, and weak science travel quickly. It is difficult to change someone's mind when they have already reached a conclusion, and researchers and research evidence need to inform views among members of the public as they are being formed. As with the science, communications around the autism controversy were reactive and lacked coordination.
People worldwide now eagerly await a vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) to curb the COVID-19 pandemic and allow the return to normal social and economic activities.16 However, without substantial global investment in active vaccine safety surveillance, continuous monitoring of public perceptions, and development of rapid and flexible communication strategies, there is a risk of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines never reaching their potential due to a continued inability to quickly and effectively respond to public vaccine safety concerns, real or otherwise.17 With every crisis comes opportunity; it should not be ignored. Global investment in vaccine safety and communication infrastructure is much needed."
Source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31558-0/fulltext
Source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31603-2/fulltext
Commentary: Vaccines only work if people take them. We all have an obligation to find and share correct, scientifically-valid, factual information about any COVID-19 vaccines as they slowly become available over the next year. Check facts carefully!
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Obesity and hypertension increase risk of COVID-19 negative outcomes regardless of age. "Combined with what we know about the greater risk of older persons, what does this study tell us about COVID-19 and young adults? First, while young adults are much less likely than older persons to become seriously ill, if they reach the point of hospitalization, their risks are substantial. Second, obesity, hypertension, and male sex put patients of all ages at greater risk. As obesity and hypertension are preventable and treatable conditions, reducing the risk of serious COVID 19 illness should be added to the already long list of reasons to increase medical and public health efforts in young adults to promote healthful diets and increased exercise. Finally, the article by Cunningham et al3 establishes that COVID-19 is a life-threatening disease in people of all ages and that social distancing, facial coverings, and other approaches to prevent transmission are as important in young adults as in older persons."
Source: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2770541
Commentary: As we head into the fall and winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the temptation to slack off on physical fitness and diet increases, especially with the holidays. Be vigilant about your own health! Keep improving your overall physical fitness to the best of your ability to give yourself the best fighting chances should you contract COVID-19. (and even if you don't, you still keep the health benefits)
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Image recognition deployment for recognizing use of face masks.
"PUBLIC SHAMING OVER not wearing a face mask started almost as soon as the COVID-19 pandemic itself. In February, some provinces and municipalities in China made it mandatory to wear masks when in public. News reports soon followed of residents and police chastising the non-compliant, a trend that’s now seen globally.
When Akash Takyar heard those early stories trickle out of China, he was shocked at how things were being handled, and he wondered if his software company—LeewayHertz—could offer a more peaceful way. Takyar recognized how important it is to wear a mask to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. But rather than leave members of the public to monitor each other, he wanted to develop a computer program that could look at images and detect whether people are wearing masks.
His San Francisco-based company is one of many now pioneering mask recognition as a way to get people to comply for the public good. So far, masks have been confounding traditional facial recognition software—but these new machine learning tools could conceivably be used in private or public spaces to measure compliance and ostensibly take that out of the hands of individuals.
LeewayHertz’s algorithm, for example, could be used in real time and integrated with closed-circuit television (CCTV) cameras. From a given frame in a video, it isolates images and organizes them into two categories, people who are wearing masks and those who are not. Currently, this recognition software is being used in “stealth mode” in multiple settings in the United States and Europe. Restaurants and hotels are using it to make sure the staff is complying with wearing masks. One airport on the East Coast of the United States is also testing the technology on-site, says Taykar."
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/09/face-mask-recognition-has-arrived-for-coronavirus-better-or-worse-cvd/
Commentary: This may be a technology solution in search of a problem, depending on what is done with the information. However, if it can assist in compliance, I'm all for trying it out in hotspots where community spread is unchecked, assuming that the civil liberties and accuracy issues can be resolved.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason. Consider also spraying the bottoms of your shoes with a general disinfectant (alcohol/bleach/peroxide) when you return home. Remember that cleaners are never to be ingested or injected.
2. Always wear a mask when out of your home and if going to a high risk area, wear goggles. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too.
3. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters, preferably more. Avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
4. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
5. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.