Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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Pfizer now authorized for 12-15 year olds in USA. "Today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration expanded the emergency use authorization (EUA) for the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine for the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) to include adolescents 12 through 15 years of age. The FDA amended the EUA originally issued on Dec. 11, 2020 for administration in individuals 16 years of age and older.
“The FDA’s expansion of the emergency use authorization for the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine to include adolescents 12 through 15 years of age is a significant step in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Acting FDA Commissioner Janet Woodcock, M.D. “Today’s action allows for a younger population to be protected from COVID-19, bringing us closer to returning to a sense of normalcy and to ending the pandemic. Parents and guardians can rest assured that the agency undertook a rigorous and thorough review of all available data, as we have with all of our COVID-19 vaccine emergency use authorizations.”"
Source: https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine-emergency-use
Commentary: This is welcome news for parents and schools, especially as states are indicating that vaccine doses are piling up unused in America.
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Vaccine data showing up in real life. "HAMILTON COUNTY, Ohio —
Vaccine effectiveness is showing up in real-world numbers as local hospitals calculate how many COVID-19 patients have been vaccinated.
“When you look at our hospitals right now, there are about 150 people with COVID in those hospitals. None of them have had the vaccine,” said Hamilton County health commissioner Greg Kesterman.
The exact breakdown of numbers shows in Southwest Ohio there are 142 hospitalized with COVID-19, 36 are in the ICU, 28 are on ventilators. Zero have been vaccinated.
At St. Elizabeth in Northern Kentucky, there are 28 COVID patients, 7 are in the ICU. Zero have been vaccinated.
“This is what we expected to see. This is what the data showed. This is why the science is leading us in this direction,” said UC College of Medicine Dr. Carl Fichtenbaum. “It should be a wakeup call to people who said, ‘I’m not sure about this vaccine.’”
Fichtenbaum led the Moderna studies at the UC College of Medicine.
Proof of performance is showing up in another vaccine statistic locally.
“We knew that our older population is most vulnerable to COVID, and yet right now, those 80 plus have the lowest rate of hospitalization,” said Health Collaborative vaccine specialist Kate Schroder. “It’s next to nothing because we have really high rates of vaccination among the older population.”"
Source: https://www.wlwt.com/article/covid-19-patients-total-170-at-local-hospitals-not-a-single-one-vaccinated/36356774
Commentary: This is exactly what we want to see - the vaccines work. Now we need to tell these stories to folks who are hesitant about getting the vaccine. They work, they keep you out of the hospital, out of the ICU.
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The Lancet slams India's federal response. "India must now pursue a two-pronged strategy. First, the botched vaccination campaign must be rationalised and implemented with all due speed. There are two immediate bottlenecks to overcome: increasing vaccine supply (some of which should come from abroad) and setting up a distribution campaign that can cover not just urban but also rural and poorer citizens, who constitute more than 65% of the population (over 800 million people) but face a desperate scarcity of public health and primary care facilities. The government must work with local and primary health-care centres that know their communities and create an equitable distribution system for the vaccine.
Second, India must reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission as much as possible while the vaccine is rolled out. As cases continue to mount, the government must publish accurate data in a timely manner, and forthrightly explain to the public what is happening and what is needed to bend the epidemic curve, including the possibility of a new federal lockdown. Genome sequencing needs to be expanded to better track, understand, and control emerging and more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants. Local governments have begun taking disease-containment measures, but the federal government has an essential role in explaining to the public the necessity of masking, social distancing, halting mass gatherings, voluntary quarantine, and testing. Modi's actions in attempting to stifle criticism and open discussion during the crisis are inexcusable.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates that India will see a staggering 1 million deaths from COVID-19 by Aug 1. If that outcome were to happen, Modi's Government would be responsible for presiding over a self-inflicted national catastrophe. India squandered its early successes in controlling COVID-19. Until April, the government's COVID-19 taskforce had not met in months. The consequences of that decision are clear before us, and India must now restructure its response while the crisis rages. The success of that effort will depend on the government owning up to its mistakes, providing responsible leadership and transparency, and implementing a public health response that has science at its heart."
Source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01052-7/fulltext?dgcid=raven_jbs_etoc_email
Commentary: India's next wave looks a lot like the US third wave, only more so as the new variants are powering India's spread. With over a billion potential hosts, the world has to help India shut down its pandemic, or it will accelerate the creation of new strains.
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NSAIDs confirmed to have no negative effect. "In conclusion, NSAID use with COVID-19 appears to confer no increased risk of poorer outcomes. This idea is supported by a growing body of evidence, of which the majority points towards the same conclusion.4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 Details regarding use of NSAIDs, including the effects of continuation or discontinuation after hospital admission, dosage, and treatment duration, deserve attention in future studies. The clinical statements from the WHO, EMA, and FDA of lack of harmful effects of NSAID use in COVID-19 infection are supported by the current study. The current study complements several previous observational studies, of which most have supported the lack of association between NSAID use and COVID-19 severity. Ultimately, based on current knowledge, clinicians should not refrain from or discontinue NSAIDs in patients with COVID-19 if NSAID treatment is indicated."
Source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanrhe/article/PIIS2665-9913(21)00144-2/fulltext
Commentary: Early on in the pandemic, there was some non-peer-reviewed data that indicated use of NSAIDs - ibuprofen, acetaminophen - could worsen outcomes. That has now been disproven. That also means that their use for abating vaccine side effects is perfectly safe, too.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Always wear the best mask available to you when out of your home and you'll be around other people, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen.
3. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason.
4. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters, preferably more. Avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
5. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
6. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
7. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
8. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.