Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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Commentary: For USA friends, as we remember the 2,996 people who lost their lives on 9/11, please do your part to stop the PREVENTABLE 9/11s happening EVERY TWO DAYS in the USA to COVID-19. Get vaccinated, help others get vaccinated, and mask up.
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Flu cases still relatively low. "CDC FluView is up. Actual confirmed cases of #flu remain very low. There is, however, a fair amount of influenza-like illness, or ILI, activity. The report suggests it may have plateaued among 0-4 & 5-24 yr olds. Will be interesting to watch this, now that school is in."
Source:
Commentary:
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Probability of severe illness or death after vaccination now roughly 0.008%. "As of Aug. 30, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had received reports of 12,908 patients with breakthrough infections who were hospitalized or died — less than 0.008% of fully vaccinated individuals in the United States. “Identifying who is more likely to develop severe COVID-19 illness after vaccination will be critical to ongoing efforts to mitigate the impact of these breakthrough infections.”
While researchers in the new study observed a wide range of illness severity among the fully vaccinated patients who were hospitalized and tested positive for COVID-19, more than a quarter of this group were found to have severe or critical disease. All patients with severe or critical cases — 14 in total — required supplementary oxygen support, four were admitted to the intensive care unit, and three died.
These patients tended to be older — between 65 and 95 years old with a median age of 80.5 — and had preexisting comorbidities, such as cardiovascular disease and Type 2 diabetes. A subset of patients was also on immunosuppressive drugs that may affect vaccine efficacy."
Source: https://news.yale.edu/2021/09/07/study-examines-severe-breakthrough-cases-covid-19
Commentary: 0.008% is such a small number that it's impossible to visualize. It's roughly 1 in 12,500; you are more likely to be involved in a fatal car accident this year than you are to die of COVID-19 after being fully vaccinated. That said, you can reduce those odds even further by masking up and staying masked.
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BioNTech set to ask for 5-11 approvals. "BioNTech (22UAy.DE) is set to request approval across the globe to use its COVID-19 vaccine in children as young as five over the next few weeks and preparations for a launch are on track, the biotech firm's two top executives told Der Spiegel.
"Already over the next few weeks we will file the results of our trial in five to 11 year olds with regulators across the world and will request approval of the vaccine in this age group, also here in Europe," Chief Medical Officer Oezlem Tuereci told the news weekly.
The confident statements underscore the lead that BioNTech, which collaborates with Pfizer (PFE.N), holds in the race to win broad approval to vaccinate children below the age of 12 in Western countries.
BioNTech has said it expected to file its regulatory dossier on the five to 11 year olds in September. It has also laid out plans to seek approval in children aged 6 months to 2 years later this year.
Tuereci also told Spiegel that final production steps were being adjusted to bottle a lower-dose pediatric version of its established Comirnaty vaccine. It is currently approved for adults and youngsters at least 12 years of age."
Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/biontech-seek-approval-soon-vaccine-5-11-year-olds-spiegel-2021-09-10/
Commentary: Vaccines for school-age kids can't come soon enough.
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Delta now the dominant strain in Africa.
Source: https://genomics.africa/sars-cov-2-dashboard/
Commentary: What's astonishing is just how fast Delta overwhelmed other strains in Africa. It's an incredibly powerful variant. This is why we need vaccines planetwide - the virus gets footholds in places with low vaccination and both spreads and mutates.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
3. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. If you received an adenovirus vaccine (J&J/AstraZeneca), consider getting an mRNA single shot booster (Pfizer/Moderna) if permitted.
4. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home.
5. Stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
6. Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemic gives another crazy plot twist to the economy.
7. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
8. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
9. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
10. If you think you may have been exposed to COVID-19, purchase a rapid antigen test. This will detect COVID-19 only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. https://amzn.to/3fLAoor
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19.
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.