Lunchtime Pandemic Reading, 10-November-2024
Preparing for the future
Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crises and how to manage them. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from a qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific medical situation over advice from people on the Internet.
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With the results of the US presidential election now known for the most part, it’s time to talk about next steps. We won’t dig into politics here, save as they directly impact our ability to keep ourselves safe from disease threats.
Let’s assume the following worst case scenario, which may or may not happen: tariffs are placed on virtually everything imported into the USA, and vaccines and other science-based interventions become harder to obtain. If we assume this is true, then the logical things to do now (especially for citizens of the USA) would be:
Get vaccinated and boosted for whatever your qualified healthcare provider will authorize. For certain, get a flu shot booster and a COVID shot booster if you haven’t in 2024. Any other vaccines or boosters that you may be eligible for (such as TDAP), ask your doctor if it’s time for a refresher. Many vaccines like TDAP have significant periods of effectiveness - like a decade. You may even want to inquire, if you’re older than 40, about getting boosted for childhood diseases like measles. Your healthcare provider will be able to tell you more.
This is globally applicable; dramatic declines in vaccination and immunity walls in one part of the world (especially a part as populous as the USA) makes everyone more vulnerable.
Almost all PPE, such as N95 masks, are made in part or in whole in other countries such as China and India. Check your supplies, and ensure you have a robust amount of PPE. I strongly encourage half-face respirators like the GVS Elipse P100/P3 that requires filter changes only every 6-12 months - they dramatically reduce waste AND they provide increased protection from airborne threats of all kinds.
Develop a network of trusted sources for news about diseases that you can rely on if information in more mainstream media becomes harder to obtain. Follow the activities of global health organizations such as the World Health Organization and the European Medicines Agency. Your best bet for those is to subscribe to their email newsletters; that way, you don’t miss important announcements that AI-based services like social media may not serve you.
Have a sense of the current threats. COVID is currently relatively low in many places around the world. However, we’re starting to see pockets of H5N1 - bird flu - cropping up, such as San Jose, CA. Sites like wastewaterscan.org are useful for seeing what’s in circulation, but every region and country has its own data.
What we know for sure is this: last time, in 2020, many countries had different responses to the pandemic. Since then, we’ve seen exceptional resistance to public health measures in all kinds of nations, but none quite so vigorous as the USA. Should bird flu or another airborne pathogen gain a serious foothold in the next few years, chances are the public health response will be even more impaired, which means that keeping yourself safe will be an individual rather than a collective effort.
Now, while demand is low and no one is giving it much thought, is the time to stock up. It’s not hoarding when no one needs these supplies like N95 masks, gloves, and other PPE. If you have the financial means to do so, having some extra stock on hand won’t hurt anything - and if the worst case scenario happens (such as an H5N1 pandemic, which is far more deadly than COVID, about 25% infection fatality rate), you will be prepared.
I have a brief story to share about that. Back in 2019, wildfires were particularly bad in San Francisco, and I was attending an event there. I bought a big pack of N99 masks because the air quality in San Francisco was so terrible - when I got home, the mask I had reused all week was a dull grey instead of white. But I still had a sleeve of more than 20 N99 masks, which are highly protective.
Fast forward to March 2020. Clinics and hospitals are overwhelmed. PPE is in short supply. A friend’s sister works in an urgent care clinic and they’ve completely run out of any kind of masks, and sick people are coming in. I had enough N99 respirators to give half to my friend’s sister for the clinic and keep the staff protected for more than a month before relief supplies showed up.
You can make a difference if you’ve got some reserves in advance.
A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. P100 respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too and start around US$40 for a reusable respirator (disclosure: Amazon affiliate link). Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
Get vaccinated as soon as you're eligible to for COVID and flu, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen, including boosters. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. There are new vaccines available now in addition to the boosters we already know that may be more efficacious and tolerated better, so talk to your healthcare provider about which vaccine or booster is the best choice for you.
Check COVID and flu dashboards to see how prevalent it is in your region. Focus especially on wastewater reporting. A couple of useful dashboards:
In areas of above-average prevalence, stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
Aim to have 3-6 months of living expenses on hand in case the pandemics give another crazy plot twist to the economy, or you know, a global war breaks out.
Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
If you think you may have been exposed to COVID or influenza, purchase several rapid antigen tests and/or acquire them from your healthcare provider or government. This will detect diseases only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. This multi-test from the EU does COVID, influenza, and RSV (disclosure: Amazon affiliate link).
Remember, you are not clear until you take 2 tests that are negative, 24 hours apart.
Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414291297464321
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare a competing interest on Amazon affiliate links for products shared in this newsletter, for which I earn approximately 1% of the purchase price of anything purchased through those links. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and AI consulting firm. I have no clients in anything related to COVID or other communicable diseases.
I am not a qualified healthcare provider and I do not provide medical advice. Only take medical advice from your qualified healthcare provider who knows your specific details and can provide customized recommendations for you.