Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
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I am very happy (albeit a bit sore) to have gotten both myself and my wife our second shots yesterday. The probability of severe illness and death from COVID-19 for us is now substantially lower (and more so after the 14-day waiting period). I cannot emphasize the peace of mind this brings. Not that I'm going to go run out and start licking doorknobs or anything, but it's just nice to have it done with. A huge thanks goes out to all the healthcare workers as well as researchers that made it possible.
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The CDC formally acknowledges COVID-19 is an airborne aerosol.
"Dr. Anthony Fauci 1:15
Well, I mean, as you mentioned, Chuck correctly, this is something we've known for some time now. So when you have aerosol, then the distance between people becomes a little bit more problematic, because generally, when you say you have a certain distance, that the droplets will fall and not reach a person. So right now, this is going to have an emphasis on proper ventilation. Because if there is air civilization, you're going to want to have good ventilation, that could hold true for schools that it could hold true. For workplaces. The other thing, it also brings out the possibility that you're going to have to make sure that indoors when you have unvaccinated people, that people wear a mask, but that is already a CDC recommendation anyway. But when you have the ability of a particular virus to go further than just a few feet, clearly one of the most important things is proper ventilation. And number two mask wearing.
Chuck Todd 2:10
So what is this? Okay, let's get to mask wearing because this is where, you know, at what point can we stop wearing masks outside? At what point if vaccinated people get together? Do you take the masks off? And are we got to a set but as the mass going to be something we have with us in a seasonal aspect?
Dr. Anthony Fauci 2:32
You know, that's quite possible. I think people have gotten used to the fact that wearing masks clearly if you look at the data diminishes respiratory diseases we've had practically a non existent flu season this year merely because people were doing the kinds of public health things that were directed predominantly against COVID-19. The Australians during their winter, same thing, they had almost no flu, largely due to the kinds of things including mask wearing. So it is conceivable that as we go on a year or two or more from now, that during certain seasonal periods, when you have respiratory borne viruses, like the flu, people might actually elect to wear masks to diminish the likelihood that you'll spread these respiratory borne diseases.""
Source:
Commentary: I see no reason to stop wearing a mask in public. Block influenza, COVID-19, and pollen all in one shot. Especially if your masks are reusable - then there's really no reason to stop using them.
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India's surge is affecting neighbors. "India’s surge in coronavirus cases is having a dangerous effect on neighboring Bangladesh. Health experts warn of imminent vaccine shortages just as the country should be stepping up its vaccination drive, and as more contagious virus variants are beginning to be detected.
On Saturday, health authorities said that for the first time, a coronavirus variant originally identified in India was detected in Bangladesh, without providing further details. For weeks, South African variants have dominated the samples sequenced in Bangladesh. There are concerns that these versions spread more easily and that first-generation vaccines could be less effective against them.
Experts say that declining infections in Bangladesh over the last two weeks compared to March and early April — for reasons that aren’t fully understood — provided the perfect opportunity for the nation to scale up vaccinations.
“This is the time to vaccinate, keep infections low and make sure that new variants don’t emerge here,” said Senjuti Saha, a scientist at the Child Health Research Foundation in Bangladesh, who is also sequencing the virus.
However, India has banned the export of vaccines as it grapples with the crisis at home. The country’s Serum Institute was supposed to supply 30 million vaccine doses — 5 million doses a month — to Bangladesh by June. But the institute has only supplied 7 million doses and has suspended further shipments since February."
Source: https://time.com/6047019/india-coronavirus-bangladesh/
Commentary: There are no borders when it comes to disease. There are no countries, no political parties, just hosts that can be infected. We're still all in this together, because we do not want new variants popping up in infection reservoirs around the world.
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Undercounting by half in the USA. "A new study estimates that the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in the U.S. is more than 900,000, a number 57% higher than official figures.
Worldwide, the study's authors say, the COVID-19 death count is nearing 7 million, more than double the reported number of 3.24 million.
The analysis comes from researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, who looked at excess mortality from March 2020 through May 3, 2021, compared it with what would be expected in a typical nonpandemic year, then adjusted those figures to account for a handful of other pandemic-related factors.
The final count only estimates deaths "caused directly by the SARS-CoV-2 virus," according to the study's authors. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19.
Researchers estimated dramatic undercounts in countries such as India, Mexico and Russia, where they said the official death counts are some 400,000 too low in each country. In some countries — including Japan, Egypt and several Central Asian nations — the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's death toll estimate is more than 10 times higher than reported totals.
"The analysis just shows how challenging it has been during the pandemic to accurately track the deaths — and actually, transmission — of COVID. And by focusing in on the total COVID death rate, I think we bring to light just how much greater the impact of COVID has been already and may be in the future," said Dr. Christopher Murray, who heads the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation."
Source: http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths
Source: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/05/06/994287048/new-study-estimates-more-than-900-000-people-have-died-of-covid-19-in-u-s
Commentary: I am not surprised by the undercounting estimate. Between known categorization problems and intentional undercounting for political reasons in places all around the world, I would not be surprised to learn we're at a million dead from COVID-19. Let's hope we all learn from this experience and use it to inform our policies - and decide who to elect to office based on their ability to understand basic facts, data, and science.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Always wear the best mask available to you when out of your home and you'll be around other people, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen.
3. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason.
4. Stay home as much as possible. Minimize your contact with others and maintain physical distance of at LEAST 6 feet / 2 meters, preferably more. Avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
5. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
6. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
7. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
8. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.