Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
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Delta's attack rate in schools projected at 70%. "Important for people to understand the numbers: there's currently credible modeling in Ontario projecting a 70% covid attack rate in schools this fall. And why wouldn't there be? As noted delta ~ chicken pox."
Source:
Commentary: Honestly, if you have a choice, if you have the option, and you have an unvaccinated child, keep them home for the coming school year. In many nations, homeschooling and virtual schooling are available, so if it's an option for you, consider it.
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People who have had COVID-19 should get 2 shots. "Understanding the impact of prior infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on the response to vaccination is a priority for responding to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In particular, it is necessary to understand how prior infection plus vaccination can modulate immune responses against variants of concern. To address this, we sampled 20 individuals with and 25 individuals without confirmed previous SARS-CoV-2 infection from a large cohort of healthcare workers followed serologically since April 2020. All 45 individuals had received two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech BTN162b2 vaccine with a delayed booster at 10 weeks. Absolute and neutralizing antibody titers against wild-type SARS-CoV-2 and variants were measured using enzyme immunoassays and pseudotype neutralization assays. We observed antibody reactivity against lineage A, B.1.351 and P.1 variants with increasing antigenic exposure, either through vaccination or natural infection. This improvement was further confirmed in neutralization assays using fixed dilutions of serum samples. The impact of antigenic exposure was more evident in enzyme immunoassays measuring SARS-CoV-2 spike protein-specific IgG antibody concentrations. Our data show that multiple exposures to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in the context of a delayed booster expand the neutralizing breadth of the antibody response to neutralization-resistant SARS-CoV-2 variants. This suggests that additional vaccine boosts may be beneficial in improving immune responses against future SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern."
Source: https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/08/10/scitranslmed.abj0847
Commentary: This is new research and peer-reviewed; it suggests that even if you've had COVID-19, get a full mRNA vaccination for a better immune response, if doses are available in your region.
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The Federation of State Medical Boards in the USA is threatening to suspend medical licenses for disinformation. "WASHINGTON, D.C. (July 29, 2021) – The Federation of State Medical Boards’ Board of Directors released the following statement in response to a dramatic increase in the dissemination of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation and disinformation by physicians and other health care professionals on social media platforms, online and in the media:
“Physicians who generate and spread COVID-19 vaccine misinformation or disinformation are risking disciplinary action by state medical boards, including the suspension or revocation of their medical license. Due to their specialized knowledge and training, licensed physicians possess a high degree of public trust and therefore have a powerful platform in society, whether they recognize it or not. They also have an ethical and professional responsibility to practice medicine in the best interests of their patients and must share information that is factual, scientifically grounded and consensus-driven for the betterment of public health. Spreading inaccurate COVID-19 vaccine information contradicts that responsibility, threatens to further erode public trust in the medical profession and puts all patients at risk.”"
Source: https://www.fsmb.org/advocacy/news-releases/fsmb-spreading-covid-19-vaccine-misinformation-may-put-medical-license-at-risk/
Commentary: Good. That's all that needs to be said.
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wear the best mask available to you when you'll be around people you don't live with, even after you've been vaccinated. Respirators are back in stock at online retailers, too. Wear an N95/FFP2/KN95 that's NIOSH-approved or better mask if you can obtain it. If you can't get an N95 mask, wear a surgical mask with a cloth mask over it.
2. Verify your mask's NIOSH certification here: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/usernotices/counterfeitResp.html
3. Get vaccinated as soon as you're able to, and fulfill the full vaccine regimen. Remember that you are not vaccinated until everyone you live with is vaccinated. If you received an adenovirus vaccine (J&J/AstraZeneca), consider getting an mRNA single shot booster (Pfizer/Moderna) if permitted.
4. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home.
5. Stay out of indoor spaces that aren't your home and away from people you don't live with as much as practical. Minimize your contact with others and avoid indoor places as much as you can; indoor spaces spread the disease through aerosols and distance is less effective at mitigating your risks.
6. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
7. Replenish your supplies as you use them. Avoid reducing your stores to pre-pandemic levels in case an outbreak causes unexpected supply chain disruptions.
8. Ventilate your home as frequently as weather and circumstances permit, except when you share close airspaces with other residences (like a window less than a meter away from a neighboring window).
9. Masks must fit properly to work. Here's how to properly fit a mask:
10. If you think you may have been exposed to COVID-19, purchase a rapid antigen test. This will detect COVID-19 only when you're contagious, so follow the directions clearly. https://amzn.to/3fLAoor
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Common misinformation debunked!
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines can shed or otherwise harm people around you.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19vaccine-reproductivepro-idUSL1N2MG256
There is no mercury or other heavy metals in the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/09/1013538/what-are-the-ingredients-of-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine/
There is no basis in fact that COVID-19 vaccines pose additional risks to pregnant women.
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered, nor that it escaped a lab somewhere.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/
Source: https://www.smh.com.au/national/are-we-ignoring-the-hard-truths-about-the-most-likely-cause-of-covid-19-20210601-p57x4r.html
There is no evidence a flu shot increases your COVID-19 risk.
Source: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/no-evidence-that-flu-shot-increases-risk-of-covid-19/
Source: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa626/5842161
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Disclosures and Disclaimers
I declare no competing interests on anything I share related to COVID-19. I am employed by and am a co-owner in TrustInsights.ai, an analytics and management consulting firm. I have no clients and no business interests in anything related to COVID-19, nor do I financially benefit in any way from sharing information about COVID-19.
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A common request I'm asked is who I follow. Here's a public Twitter list of many of the sources I read.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1260956929205112834
This list is biased by design. It is limited to authors who predominantly post in the English language. It is heavily biased towards individual researchers and away from institutions. It is biased towards those who publish or share research, data, papers, etc. I have made an attempt to follow researchers from different countries, and also to make the list reasonably gender-balanced, because multiple, diverse perspectives on research data are essential.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.