Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
This is also available as an email newsletter at https://lunchtimepandemic.substack.com if you prefer the update in your inbox.
You are welcome to share this.
---
An outstanding series to read from Trevor Bedford at Fred Hutch, one of the leading labs looking at COVID-19 data.
Source:
Current social distancing has the United States in a holding pattern. COVID isn't rapidly amping up, but neither is it going away.
Source:
Thus, daily case counts will continue to be the same.
Source:
At the current pace, we'll hit 50M infections by September.
Source:
And we'll stay at 2,000 deaths per day.
Source:
Give this some serious, real thought.
In April, COVID-19 killed more Americans than died in the Vietnam War.
Source: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/04/coronavirus-death-toll-vietnam-war-cvd/
With the current linear growth of infections - meaning we have NOT slowed it down below its reproduction number of 1.0 - we will lose another Vietnam War in May.
And June.
And so on.
Why can't we stop it? We are not testing enough. We are not tracing enough. We are not isolating the ill. And people are itching to go back to work, reopen the country, effectively increasing the infection numbers and rate of infection. And the federal government is actively working against state efforts to test and trace.
Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/maryland-national-guard-police-guard-coronavirus-tests-at-secret-location-2020-4
We would be appalled if we were treating this like a real war. We're losing the war, every day, every month. The only way we win the war is with massive, free testing for every citizen, then isolate the infected.
Will we get there? Maybe. But we're going to lose a few more Vietnams before we do. For my older friends, who remember the turmoil the nation was in during the Vietnam War, I hope this re-lights that patriotic fire. Many of you protested mightily to exit that war. I hope you protest mightily now that we must do everything in our power to win the COVID war.
Protest to your elected officials that we want to win this war, not surrender a Vietnam every month for the next two years.
--
The COVID Exit Strategy is an outstanding, easy summary of the 20 interventions we need to win the war.
Source: https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/
Most important is the state-by-state analysis of which states are winning or losing based on their implementation of interventions and the number of cases.
--
Large food processing plants continue to be impacted. "The Cass County Health Department on Wednesday afternoon said it has seen just under 1,200 positive COVID-19 cases. Almost 900 employees at the Tyson Food plant in Cass County’s Logansport have tested positive. The county had been working with Tyson on a plan to reopen the plant after the pork processing plant voluntarily closed for 14 days in an effort to contain an outbreak."
Source: https://www.wishtv.com/news/nearly-900-at-tyson-foods-plant-test-positive-for-coronavirus/
Close quarters employees is a recipe for outbreak.
Expect this to continue impacting the food supply chain. Give some thought to what foods you currently buy that have high amounts of manual, human processing, such as meat. What alternate foods are there that require fewer humans indoors? Grains and plants tend to require less indoor processing and not as many people, so consider changing your purchasing strategy to reflect that.
--
Lockdowns didn't kill the economy. The pandemic did.
Source:
This data, from OpenTable, is really insightful. People started taking action themselves before the government told them to. And that means that even if individual governments say, "Okay, go ahead and open up!" people will take time to adjust their behaviors.
It will be a long road back to 'normal'.
--
The Lancet calls out prisons. "“The prisons and jails in the USA that have reported high rates of the coronavirus are the ones who are doing the testing”, points out David Patton, executive director and attorney-in-chief of the Federal Defenders of New York. “It is hard to imagine that the virus is not already rampant throughout the US penal system.” Around 2·2 million individuals are incarcerated in the USA; no other country imprisons as many people. Prisoners tend to be in worse health than the wider population. “80–90% of people charged with a crime in the USA are too poor to afford legal counsel”, notes Patton. “They have high rates of asthma, diabetes, and smoking”. Prison itself is hardly a healthy environment. A lot of time is spent sitting around, and the food is typically poor quality. And in some places, even poor-quality food is in short supply."
Source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30984-3/fulltext
Prisons. Meat packing plants. Cruise ships. There will be large, robust reservoirs of COVID-19 for years to come. Rooting them out and treating them will not be possible until the vaccine. Until the vaccine, social distancing and other countermeasures will need to be the norm.
--
A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands every time you are in or out of your home for any reason. Consider also spraying the bottoms of your shoes with a general disinfectant (alcohol/bleach/peroxide) when you return home.
2. Wear gloves and a mask when out of your home.
3. Stay home as much as possible.
4. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
5. Donate any PPE you can. https://getusppe.org/give/
--
Common misinformation debunked!
There is no genomic evidence at all that COVID-19 arrived before 2020 in the United States and therefore no hidden herd immunity:
Source:
There is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 was engineered.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/29/experts-debunk-fringe-theory-linking-chinas-coronavirus-weapons-research/
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9