Lunchtime pandemic reading.
Standard disclaimer: this is a roundup of informative pieces I've read that interest me on the severity of the crisis and how to manage it. I am not a qualified medical expert in ANY sense; at best I am reasonably well-read laity. ALWAYS prioritize advice from qualified healthcare experts over some person on Facebook.
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"The Federal Reserve has unleashed what's frequently been called a bazooka in its efforts to calm markets. Its next step could be to go nuclear. Such a move by the Fed likely would come via the $3.6 trillion exchange-traded funds market. That's where the Fed is going for its intervention in corporate bonds as ETFs allow the central bank the ability to track an index rather than pick individual company bonds to own. ETFs are passive instruments in that they follow indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average instead of picking individual stocks."
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/what-it-would-take-for-the-fed-to-start-buying-stocks-during-coronavirus-crisis.html
This is indeed the nuclear option, and in my perspective it's the wrong choice. The stock market isn't the problem; if anything, it's a lagging indicator. Main Street needs the money, not Wall Street. One of the challenges with anything economics is what you pay for - the unintended consequences. Make it easier for companies to lay people off, and they will. Make it easier for someone to take advantage of the system, and someone will. Creating positive change with appropriate safeguards is one of the toughest challenges and requires avoiding knee-jerk reactions.
When you buy stock, you're buying ownership in a company. The US Government beginning to buy chunks of ownership, of equity, in publicly traded companies doesn't get money to where it's needed most - citizens who can spend it on products and services, from rent to food to medical care.
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A preprint paper on susceptibility of different domestic animals to SARS-CoV-2. "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes the infectious disease COVID-19, which was first reported in Wuhan, China in December, 2019. Despite the tremendous efforts to control the disease, COVID-19 has now spread to over 100 countries and caused a global pandemic. SARS-CoV2 is thought to have originated in bats; however, the intermediate animal sources of the virus are completely unknown. Here, we investigated the susceptibility of ferrets and animals in close contact with humans to SARS-CoV-2. We found that SARS-CoV-2 replicates poorly in dogs, pigs, chickens, and ducks, but efficiently in ferrets and cats. We found that the virus transmits in cats via respiratory droplets. Our study provides important insights into the animal reservoirs of SARS-CoV-2 and animal management for COVID-19 control."
Source: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.015347v1.full.pdf
This is super important for owners of cats and ferrets: if you catch COVID19, your animal may catch it as well and transmit it to other humans and animals. Stay home, and monitor your cats & ferrets carefully. If you've had COVID19 and you have a cat or ferret, continue to isolate for an additional 14 days after you're all clear to ensure your pet isn't transmitting as well, before you have anyone else back in your home.
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A new CDC mortality report confirms in the US what has been seen in Italy: those individuals with diabetes mellitus, chronic lung disease, or cardiovascular disease are most at risk from severe COVID-19 outcomes, regardless of age.
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6913e2-H.pdf
If you or someone you know is at risk, isolate. Don't go out unless absolutely necessary, and work with neighbors or delivery services to get you essential supplies. The outcomes for comorbidities are substantially worse than for healthier people.
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For a slightly less War Games style COVID19 tracker with some granularity and fast interface, check out the Stat News tracker.
Source: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/26/covid-19-tracker/
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Work on vaccines continues. A paper in NEJM details some of the scientific challenges. "preclinical experience with vaccine candidates for SARS and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) have raised concerns about exacerbating lung disease, either directly or as a result of antibody-dependent enhancement. Such an adverse effect may be associated with a type 2 helper T-cell (Th2) response. Hence, testing in a suitable animal model and rigorous safety monitoring in clinical trials will be critical. Vaccine development is a lengthy, expensive process. Attrition is high, and it typically takes multiple candidates and many years to produce a licensed vaccine. Because of the cost and high failure rates, developers typically follow a linear sequence of steps, with multiple pauses for data analysis or manufacturing-process checks. Developing a vaccine quickly requires a new pandemic paradigm, with a fast start and many steps executed in parallel before confirming a successful outcome of another step, hence resulting in elevated financial risk. For example, for platforms with experience in humans, phase 1 clinical trials may be able to proceed in parallel with testing in animal models."
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005630
This paper emphasizes the importance of doing clinical trials well. As much as we want to get a vaccine to production quickly, we have to make sure it doesn't cause harm and it's better than nothing. That requires extensive testing, rigorous data collection, and ensuring that we're seeing the data clearly. Whatever vaccine does prove to be effective will take longer than we think to make it to market. The last thing you want to do is cut corners and take shortcuts to something you want to give to 7 billion people - even a 0.001% error could result in the deaths of millions more.
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A paper in Science Magazine recommends real-time contact tracing and proximity alerts - the ability for a mobile app to detect and recommend isolation for nearby infected individuals may be the key for eventually ending lockdowns. "A mobile phone App can make contact tracing and notification instantaneous upon case confirmation. By keeping a temporary record of proximity events between individuals, it can immediately alert recent close contacts of diagnosed cases and prompt them to self-isolate."
Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/30/science.abb6936.full
Privacy advocates are warning of overreach, which is a valid concern. The challenge we'll face is balancing public health imperatives with privacy imperatives and reconciling the two. There may be some legitimately useful use cases for technologies like blockchains here, to provide a secure, distributed system of record that still preserves privacy. Better technical minds than mine hopefully will devise something along those lines.
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On a lighter note, a World War 2 veteran made a full recovery from COVID-19 and said, "“I survived the foxholes of Guam, I can get through this coronavirus bulls--t,” Kelly said, according to Etherington’s post."
Source: https://www.militarytimes.com/off-duty/military-culture/2020/04/01/i-survived-guam-i-can-get-through-this-bulls-t-wwii-vet-recovers-from-covid-19/
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A reminder of the simple daily habits we should all be taking.
1. Wash/sanitize your hands often, and every time you are in or out of your home for any reason. Consider also spraying the bottoms of your shoes with a general disinfectant (alcohol/bleach/peroxide) when you return home.
2. Wear gloves and appropriate protective equipment if you have it when out of your home in any enclosed airspace (stores, etc.).
3. Stay home. Just stay home.
4. Get your personal finances in order now. Cut all unnecessary costs.
5. Donate any PPE you can. https://getusppe.org/give/